And it reached it in 1 week.
Farsala said:
Already explaining away in the other thread. 2m with digital is currently unofficial. |
Your prediction was lifetime though, if I don't read it wrong. 
Kyuu said:
All that means is the game is an unprecedented success (assuming the number is accurate) |
Nah. It will have a hard time reaching the numbers of previous entries, in no world this is a unprecedented success. My 3 million number already included a shrinking userbase in Japan. So that could be expected.
Kyuu said:
You're not making any sense then. It could very well sell zero copies form now on, and that would still be a big success all things considered lol. |
I'm actually a bit confused by the high digital number. I don't exactly know how to compare. If we assume around 10% digital for MH4, then MHW sold first week pretty much the same as MH4. Which would I count as stable and therefore what to expect more or less and with the explosion of the sales in the west clearly a success.
If we look on physical alone it looks like a shrinking userbase. Which I would still consider fine. It still beats the ridiculous low estimate of 1.5M lifetime which I was initially reacting to.
What I say is, that these low expectations beforehand were lowballing it. You can't estimate one copy and say the game was a success if it sells ten copies. As the next mainline entry a stable userbase is to be expected, a growing userbase is a success, a shrinking one a failure. Because of the digital I'm not entirely sure which category we fall in. In Japan though, worldwide the userbase clearly is growing.
Mnementh said:
Your prediction was lifetime though, if I don't read it wrong. |
Yeah I said ~2m+ with digital has a high chance, and 1.8m was my guess. All depends on legs at this point, and if that prediction was true or not.
Kyuu said:
The thing is.. I'm dealing with two opposing extremes. Throughout my time here discussing Monster Hunter's potential on home consoles, most users were incredibly simplistic! Putting an excessive and blind emphasis on install base and form factor ("Hahaha! wasn't 'properly-tested' on home console my ass. Wii and PS2 say hello!" blah blah blah) and you're aware of that.
"a growing userbase is a success, a shrinking one a failure" is not well thought out in my opinion. By this logic, all 3DS Monster Hunter games range from epic to mild failures (in Japan) |
I count myself a Nintendo fan and I'm saying if the big selling PSP-titles came first (which I wasn't initially aware of, I thought they were after), then Tri clearly is a failure.
Besides that - every game has challenging side things. I also didn't knew how MHW would turn out. But one thing was clear: calling 1.5M lifetime in Japan a success was outright ridiculous, so I answered to that and got instantly pushback from multiple users.
Yes, at first I got into the trap too, thinking along the lines of Tri and PS2-titles, as these were the last home console releases. But I realized one thing: Capcom wouldn't have done it. Capcom is big enough to do market research and although that is never a solution for all, it would've helped here. The thing is, that all assumed the japanese base would shrink massively based on a decision completely under Capcoms control. If it sells more on handheld, they could've easily decided to put it on 3DS or try it with Switch (maybe both). Even without new developments that meant heavy investments.
So, I try to imagine that the lead developer stands before the managers and explains: we have this successful series in Japan, but we want to change it and need double or triple the budget for that. As one change we propose to put it on home console. Our market research says the japanese base of more than 3 million fans buys it on handheld, to home console would at most transfer 1.5M users - in the best case. We hope to get new western users, that never before showed interest in the series. So please give us more money than usual so that we can alienate the userbase that buys our games for many years now. - How do you think the managers would react?
Therefore I assume Capcoms market research turned up, that the shrink in the japanese base would be moderate at most. Something along the lines that management is willing enough to take the gamble.
Mnementh said:
1.35M physical first week, 2 million including digital.
And how do you see it now? 3 million should be in the cards, don't you think. With digital it'll blow past that in any case. |
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1gWECYYOSo
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