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Forums - Sony Discussion - Will Monster Hunter World be a Mult Million Seller in Japan? (2mil+)

Mnementh on 21 January 2018
Farsala said:

What about install base and attach ratios?

MH4 debuted with 1.7m (14%) on a 12.5m 3DS install base, this became as you say 3.44m (14%) on a 24m+ 3DS install base.

So MHW debuting with ~1m (16.6%) on a 6m install base would be bad? 1.5m (15-12.5%) LTD out of 10-12m is bad? Quite frankly 3m (30-25%) would be ridiculous, and close to impossible without major PS4 growth.

Big games that sell on themself usually bring their fans to buy the platform needed. Now MonHun has quite the jumps in sales, but platform seems less of an argument, except that it sells on handhelds higher than on home console. On the other hand, Tri was the last real test on a home console (there was a late port of MH3G to WiiU, but well, so many factors against good sales here), so maybe even that is irrelevant.



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konnichiwa on 21 January 2018

It will pass 2 million after a month in Japan.

First week low sales would 1 million to 1.5 million max






Farsala on 21 January 2018
Mnementh said:
Farsala said:

What about install base and attach ratios?

MH4 debuted with 1.7m (14%) on a 12.5m 3DS install base, this became as you say 3.44m (14%) on a 24m+ 3DS install base.

So MHW debuting with ~1m (16.6%) on a 6m install base would be bad? 1.5m (15-12.5%) LTD out of 10-12m is bad? Quite frankly 3m (30-25%) would be ridiculous, and close to impossible without major PS4 growth.

Big games that sell on themself usually bring their fans to buy the platform needed. Now MonHun has quite the jumps in sales, but platform seems less of an argument, except that it sells on handhelds higher than on home console. On the other hand, Tri was the last real test on a home console (there was a late port of MH3G to WiiU, but well, so many factors against good sales here), so maybe even that is irrelevant.

They only do that if they have the install base to begin with. FFXV is selling on par with other big FF games, but most of it is from the west now because PS4 install base was just too low for it in Japan.

Another thing: not a single PS3 game sold to 20% of the PS3s install base by the end of its life. Any PS4 game to achieve the same would be asking the impossible. And if it does happen, nothing short of miraculous.



Azelover on 21 January 2018

To answer OP. Yes, from what I've gathered, it will probably will sell maybe way more than that.

I'm dreading it, because I personally don't like Monster Hunter. But, save for a freak occurrence, likely will sell more than 2 and a half million. Maybe not all at the beginning, but this game is being anticipated like nothing I've seen in a long time. Most MH players, and a lot of new players, will be picking it up.



Alkibiádēs on 21 January 2018
Teeqoz said:
Mnementh said:

Monster Hunter 4 did more than 3 million. How can 1.5 million for probably the most expensive MonHun ever a success?

Eventually they'd have to make higher quality assets anyway. Even making it for the Switch would be much more expensive than the cheap 3DS games. They don't lose the high quality assets they create with this game, so they will certainly be used again in future games. It's just a higher up front cost. Also, 1.5 million on a console brings in about 50% more revenue than 1.5 million on a handheld, so revenue-wise it closes the gap a bit.

Switch games are also $60.



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Azelover on 21 January 2018
Farsala said:
Mnementh said:

Big games that sell on themself usually bring their fans to buy the platform needed. Now MonHun has quite the jumps in sales, but platform seems less of an argument, except that it sells on handhelds higher than on home console. On the other hand, Tri was the last real test on a home console (there was a late port of MH3G to WiiU, but well, so many factors against good sales here), so maybe even that is irrelevant.

They only do that if they have the install base to begin with. FFXV is selling on par with other big FF games, but most of it is from the west now because PS4 install base was just too low for it in Japan.

Another thing: not a single PS3 game sold to 20% of the PS3s install base by the end of its life. Any PS4 game to achieve the same would be asking the impossible. And if it does happen, nothing short of miraculous.

It's not as miraculous as you probably think..

Besides, there's a long time for the PS4 to continue selling..

And likely MHW will keep pushing hardware sales.. It stands to create a brand new phenomenon in Japan.

Monster Hunter Portable originally became really popular because of local wireless multiplayer outdoors, in trains and what have you. This one is pushing the online multiplayer aspect, which wasn't ideal for Nintendo consoles. Believe me, it's gonna be massive.



outlawauron on 21 January 2018
Alkibiádēs said:
Teeqoz said:

Eventually they'd have to make higher quality assets anyway. Even making it for the Switch would be much more expensive than the cheap 3DS games. They don't lose the high quality assets they create with this game, so they will certainly be used again in future games. It's just a higher up front cost. Also, 1.5 million on a console brings in about 50% more revenue than 1.5 million on a handheld, so revenue-wise it closes the gap a bit.

Switch games are also $60.

Switch games typically MSRP less than PS4 games in Japan. Considering there isn't a region wide MSRP for any platform (as each game's price is set by the publisher and doesn't adhere to a $40/50/60 policy), you have to look at it from case by case basis. For reference, Metal Gear Solid 4 on PS3 was over $100 on the conversion rates in 2008. That wasn't normal.



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Teeqoz on 22 January 2018
Alkibiádēs said:
Teeqoz said:

Eventually they'd have to make higher quality assets anyway. Even making it for the Switch would be much more expensive than the cheap 3DS games. They don't lose the high quality assets they create with this game, so they will certainly be used again in future games. It's just a higher up front cost. Also, 1.5 million on a console brings in about 50% more revenue than 1.5 million on a handheld, so revenue-wise it closes the gap a bit.

Switch games are also $60.

Yes but 3DS games aren't...

Don't worry, Monster Hunter will be on the Switch as well. Maybe not MH:W, but the next one will.



KazumaKiryu on 22 January 2018

The facts are like this:
The biggest and most impressive Monster Hunter game ever (previews).
The most beautiful MH graphic of the entire series.
Many new monsters and an incredible numbers of PS4 pre-orders.

One thing is certain: it wants to have the best sales in the series, worldwide. In Japan, two million+ are possible (retail & digital).



Miyamotoo on 22 January 2018

1m+ is certain, but 2m+ maybe not.