This was my initial post from late 2017.  I know it sounded crazy at the time, but looking at it now I think the main thing I got wrong was the timing for when Switch would really take off.  Substitute "Animal Crossing" for where I said "Pokemon", and the prediction is not too far from what happened.  Basically my prediction was 4 months off.

The nice thing about this thread is that the percentages in the poll now are pretty close to what they were back in 2017.  There is still a huge chunk of people who voted "PS4 will win by a huge margin".  I guess that is the benefit of creating this thread so early.

Same here

I was expecting the PS4 to reach ~125M, while I expected the Switch to get 130M-140M, but now it looks like the PS4 will have troubles reaching the 125M while the Switch could possibly be lowballed.

I had PS4 pegged for 130-140 million but it doesn't look like it's going to get there now.
Switch is harder to call as it all depends on just how long until its successor comes out, which could be anytime from 2022 to 2024 or possibly even later.

Look like the smallest (At least credible) Percentage of votes are going to win this!

I will say again, too early to predict anything. We need more data.

Ps5 first year sale. 

I think even 2024 is pessimistic at this point. 2024 holiday the earliest. I’m going with 2025 spring/holiday successor release

At the rate the baseline has been dropping, I’m not so sure anymore if 120 million is a safe bet. I think keeping the price at $300 for so long has done more damage to the PS4’s legs because now people can just jump to the PS5 Digital version at $400 since it’s backwards compatible anyway. They might as well just jump straight to next gen. 

And I don’t think we’re getting a Switch successor any sooner than March ‘23. That’s the very earliest we should expect it to arrive, and even then, I think that’s unlikely. I think March ‘24 - 7 years, is the more likely scenario.

Bump!

These old prediction threads are always funny.

What most people don't realize is that the OP will have to create a new tier for Switch.  It has SS for DS and PS2, but Switch will be SSS tier.

Switch is going to peak at about 30m this year.  People keep looking for Switch sales to drop off of a cliff, but it isn't going to happen.  Switch's sales descent will be fairly gradual.  Not only does Nintendo plan to keep supporting the Switch (BotW2, Splatoon 3, Pokemon Arceus, etc...), but the number of titles on the Switch has increased each fiscal year so far.  Even during COVID the number of titles released.  Third party developers keep giving the Switch more and more support.  It's also going to get more support this year than the last.  There are so many new titles on the Switch, that it is going to take it a long time to stop selling completely.