It's NPD, only the last 2 (!) days of the month are included in that iteration.
The problem is, if it sold over 500k in Japan, we know it should be around 500k in Europe, leaving 1m for rest of world and US, so even if we disconsider disrepencies between total/reported reatil total (aka digital), that leaves less than 850k for the us, probably around 775k without day 3.
Yup. It's gonna be really close. And we know Odyssey did pretty well in UK (around 80k physically), so I think 500k for EU seems accurate. Let's give RotW 100k, and that would put US at exactly 900k
But it also depends what Nintendo decides to announce on NPD. The 2 million WW numbers are sell through, so shipped could be closer to 2.3-2.5m. If they announce shipped, you have a higher chance of winning, and for sell through I have a higher chance of winning.
What a race.
500k for Europe looks right.
Japan with digital should be 500k too, using Media Create numbers. (460k physically, and another 40k digital looks right since Splatoon was 60k in 2 weeks)
For the other markets, we have America (not only USA, which should be 85% of total sales), and rest of world.
Now, let's say rest of the world does not account for a single sales, we have 1 million in America... and considering USA is usually 85% of that... it looks like USA would probabily be 850k... AT BEST, if we totally esclude rest of world.
But if we say RoW is around 100k, which seem about right, then we have 900k in America and around 810k in USA.
There a chance that Nintendo rounded those 2 million, and in reality we have something like 2.1 million... but this does not looks likely, because they usually say "OVER" 2 million, and if is very close, they say "ALMOST", if they literally said 2 million, looks like the overall results are super close to that (with like, let's say, 50k difference over or under that)
I think your bet will be very hard right now it all depend on the WW split, but i always said that 800k looks like a more realistic results for the first week. Right now, 900k doesn't looks likely. :-/