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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Extra Bold: Super Mario Odyssey Will Ship+digital 20mil Lifetime! (17.4mil Currently)

sc94597 on 01 November 2017
Ryng_Tolu said:
sc94597 said:

All games have their saturation point. Just because it is the fastest selling within the current time interval (when people are starved for new Switch games, as the platform is pretty new and active) does not mean the trend will continue. There is a limit to the number of people 3D Mario appeals to, and I expect that to be comparable to Super Mario Galaxy's sales. Especially as the Switch has a much stronger library over time. Super Mario Odyssey might outsell galaxy, but I don't suspect it will do it by more than two million. Hence "fifteen million is possible (not probably, but not highly unlikely.) 

There is really no reason to think that just because it is the fastest selling (up until now) that it will continue to outpace the rest of the series at the current rate.  

Same thing for Breath of the Wild, although in BoTW's case the conventions were change much more significantly than in SMO's.

The problem with what you said is that Mario saturation is WAY bigger than what you point out. You really believe 15 million may be the maximum?

Dude Mario is a series with some 30-40 million seller, withouth counting just how insane the brand popolarity is. Even moms, dads, grandmothers know Mario, the peack that Mario can reach is absolutely HUGE.

If Zelda can surpass 10 million units, possible 12 million, you seriusly think the peak for Mario is 15 million? Then you severly underestimate this game.

 

Like i said, anything less than Galaxy is an extremely unrealistic prediction. 15 million as well, looks pretty safe. 20 million is definitively possible to reach.

2D Mario Games are what sell that much, not 3D Mario.  For example of somebody liking the one but not the other, my mom loves to play 2D mario, but can't deal with the controls and 3D camera of 3D mario titles. Plus collectathon features are not appealing to her. The more complicated the game, the less broad appeal it has. 

 

There is no evidence that the saturation of 3D Mario titles is greater than 15 million.

 

As for BoTW, it is selling so well because the way it plays is revolutionary for the series and appeals to the open world  non-Zelds audience. The same can't be said for SMO.



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StarDoor on 01 November 2017
Jumpin said:
StarDoor said:

Galaxy 2 launched 41 months after Wii did, while 3D World launched 11 months after Wii U. Everyone knows that launch sales make up a larger portion of lifetime sales as a console ages.

If you correct for launch date, first week sales almost perfectly explain the lifetime sales of a mainline Mario game. The R-squared value is over 95%, and the p-value is less than 0.0002.

Please don't go around saying what the stats do and don't show if you haven't actually analyzed them.

You didn't bring up launch date in your initial argument. Also, where's your graph? Put it up. I'm not taking your word for this, nor am I going to redo the work for you. Assuming you've already done it. Lets see every Mario game fit this model.

  Lifetime sales (millions) Launch week (100,000s) Months from console launch
Predicted sales (millions)
NSMB 6.5 910 17 5.92
NSMBW 4.7 944 36 5.25
NSMB2 2.57 423 17 2.46
NSMBU 1.3 167 0 1.46
SMG 1.2 260 11 1.59
SMG2 0.98 340 41 0.73
SM3DL 2.15 342 9 2.27
SM3DW 0.76 102 11 0.47

a = .0070921
b = -.0478379
c = .2769696

X = Launch week sales in 100k
Y = Months from console launch
S = Lifetime sales in M

S = aX + bY + c

R-squared = 0.9662
P < 0.0002



Ryng on 01 November 2017

sc94597 said:

There is no evidence that the saturation of 3D Mario titles is greater than 15 million.

And where is the evidence to say the peack is 15 million?

Because all of what you are saying is basically:

"Mario 3D never sold over 15m, so this game won't sell over 15m, even if right now Mario Odyssey is selling way better than Galaxy, but this doesn't mean it will sell better overall"

Well excuse me, that's not really a good argument if you want my opinion. But i guess we'll see.

So far, evidence show that Mario Odyssey SHOULD easy surpass 15 million, as is doing better than any other 3D Mario.



sc94597 on 02 November 2017
Ryng_Tolu said:

sc94597 said:

 There is no evidence that the saturation of 3D Mario titles is greater than 15 million.

And where is the evidence to say the peack is 15 million?

Because all of what you are saying is basically:

"Mario 3D never sold over 15m, so this game won't sell over 15m, even if right now Mario Odyssey is selling way better than Galaxy, but this doesn't mean it will sell better overall"

Well excuse me, that's not really a good argument if you want my opinion. But i guess we'll see.

So far, evidence show that Mario Odyssey SHOULD easy surpass 15 million, as is doing better than any other 3D Mario.

"And where is the evidence to say the peak is 15 million?"

The sales of every 3D Mario ever released, including two which released on a platform that sold over 100 million units and appealed to pretty much everyone. 

And I never said it won't sell more than 15 million. Putting words into other people's mouths is one of the most annoying things you can do. So stop that. 

And no, "so far, evidence" does not "show that Mario Odyssey SHOULD easy surpass 15 million." We can't extrapolate that. 



KLXVER on 02 November 2017
tbone51 said:
KLXVER said:
Yeah, I doubt that...

I feel like you say this in all my bold threads xD

.......Yeah, I doubt that...



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tbone51 on 15 November 2017

Seems like switch and smo go hand and hand..... Possibility even if almost impossible......10mil........ By years end? O.o



tbone51 on 13 January 2018

Bumping. So now that we have estimates here we gooooooo.

US 3mil
Japan 1.4mil (exclude digital)
UK 300k
France 500k
Spain 200k
Germany 200k (minimum)

5.6mil sold minimum WW



Pavolink on 13 January 2018

I can see that. Maybe at worse 18-19m. Which is still impressive.



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newwil7l on 13 January 2018

Very possible. This is clearly the fastest selling 3D Mario to date and is at the very minimum already at 6 million as of December 31.



Shikamo on 14 January 2018

its safe to say that will sell around 15-17m LT, but something in my head says to me that will sell something like 20m to 25m.



     


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