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StarDoor on 01 November 2017
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Jumpin said:
StarDoor said:

Galaxy 2 launched 41 months after Wii did, while 3D World launched 11 months after Wii U. Everyone knows that launch sales make up a larger portion of lifetime sales as a console ages.

If you correct for launch date, first week sales almost perfectly explain the lifetime sales of a mainline Mario game. The R-squared value is over 95%, and the p-value is less than 0.0002.

Please don't go around saying what the stats do and don't show if you haven't actually analyzed them.

You didn't bring up launch date in your initial argument. Also, where's your graph? Put it up. I'm not taking your word for this, nor am I going to redo the work for you. Assuming you've already done it. Lets see every Mario game fit this model.

  Lifetime sales (millions) Launch week (100,000s) Months from console launch
Predicted sales (millions)
NSMB 6.5 910 17 5.92
NSMBW 4.7 944 36 5.25
NSMB2 2.57 423 17 2.46
NSMBU 1.3 167 0 1.46
SMG 1.2 260 11 1.59
SMG2 0.98 340 41 0.73
SM3DL 2.15 342 9 2.27
SM3DW 0.76 102 11 0.47

a = .0070921
b = -.0478379
c = .2769696

X = Launch week sales in 100k
Y = Months from console launch
S = Lifetime sales in M

S = aX + bY + c

R-squared = 0.9662
P < 0.0002