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sc94597 on 01 November 2017
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Ryng_Tolu said:
sc94597 said:

All games have their saturation point. Just because it is the fastest selling within the current time interval (when people are starved for new Switch games, as the platform is pretty new and active) does not mean the trend will continue. There is a limit to the number of people 3D Mario appeals to, and I expect that to be comparable to Super Mario Galaxy's sales. Especially as the Switch has a much stronger library over time. Super Mario Odyssey might outsell galaxy, but I don't suspect it will do it by more than two million. Hence "fifteen million is possible (not probably, but not highly unlikely.) 

There is really no reason to think that just because it is the fastest selling (up until now) that it will continue to outpace the rest of the series at the current rate.  

Same thing for Breath of the Wild, although in BoTW's case the conventions were change much more significantly than in SMO's.

The problem with what you said is that Mario saturation is WAY bigger than what you point out. You really believe 15 million may be the maximum?

Dude Mario is a series with some 30-40 million seller, withouth counting just how insane the brand popolarity is. Even moms, dads, grandmothers know Mario, the peack that Mario can reach is absolutely HUGE.

If Zelda can surpass 10 million units, possible 12 million, you seriusly think the peak for Mario is 15 million? Then you severly underestimate this game.

 

Like i said, anything less than Galaxy is an extremely unrealistic prediction. 15 million as well, looks pretty safe. 20 million is definitively possible to reach.

2D Mario Games are what sell that much, not 3D Mario.  For example of somebody liking the one but not the other, my mom loves to play 2D mario, but can't deal with the controls and 3D camera of 3D mario titles. Plus collectathon features are not appealing to her. The more complicated the game, the less broad appeal it has. 

 

There is no evidence that the saturation of 3D Mario titles is greater than 15 million.

 

As for BoTW, it is selling so well because the way it plays is revolutionary for the series and appeals to the open world  non-Zelds audience. The same can't be said for SMO.