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Forums - Sales Discussion - USA Pre-Order Chart: what sells better - SMO or CoD WWII (PS4)?

 

What sells better in pre-orders?

Call of Duty: WWII (PS4) 141 54.65%
 
Super Mario Odyssey 117 45.35%
 
Total:258

Call of Duty: WWII will beat Super Mario Odyssey in Pre-Orders, First Week and Lifetime numbers.



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Cerebralbore101 said:
CoD will crush Odyssey in every sales catagory. It will have more pre-orders, more sales the first week, and more lifetime sales. Galaxy is the highest selling 3D Mario game and it only hit 10 million on the Wii, with a 100 million user install base. The last Black Ops sold 14 million just on PS4 alone. If the Switch winds up selling 130 million units lifetime, and Odyssey becomes a Nintendo Selects title for $20, then it might beat CoD WWII. But that's a really long shot.

More preorders: possible

More first week sales: probably

More Lifetime sales: not so much

Super Mario Odyssey is THE next Killer App for the Switch, and like every mainline Mario will keep on selling even years after release. CoD on the other hand has one year for all it's sales and is very frontloaded. While Black Ops 3 has the most sales of every CoD, last year's Infinite Warfare only managed to get half it's sales. That's still better than any CoD with WW2 setting. However, CoD wasn't nearly as big as it is nowadays back then, but I don't expect it getting close to BO3.

By end of 2017, CoD will be still in front by a good margin due to lack of enough Switch consoles. By end of 2018 however, I'm pretty sure SMO will be in front 



I think that a lot of people who didn't buy last year's disappointing COD, will buy the new one now. I think the PS4 version can reach 12M, just like Mario Odyssey.

Assuming that SMO will generaly be considered to be a very good game, and the new COD to be mediocre, I think it's slightly more likely that Mario will win lifetime.

COD will probably win year one and pre-orders.



https://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames/ref=zg_bsar_tab_t_bs#3 
https://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames/ref=zg_bsar_tab_t_bs#1

If Amazon is anything to go by, then Mario should be winning in pre-orders.
The PS4 version of COD isn't even in the top 50 whereas Odyssey is currently in the top 5, and both games come out within a week of each other.

Granted, I think COD will have the bigger launch due to the much bigger install base,  the CoD audience already being there, and it'll be one of the heavily featured holiday bundles along with Gran Turismo and Star Wars.

Lifetime wise, I think it'll be much closer than people think, Call of Duty appears to be on a decline.
(VGChartz Data)
Black Ops 3: 12 weeks from release - PS4 + XBO - 1,077,340 preorders  All versions to date - 26.64 million
Infinite Warfare: 12 weeks from release - PS4 + XBO - 153,064 preorders All versions to date - 12.44 million
World War 2: 12 weeks from release - PS4 + XBO - 259,121 preorders                   

While WW2 should do and sell better than Infinite Warfare, it's not coming anywhere remotely close to Black Ops 3.

Meanwhile, there is a strong chance of Odyssey becoming the best selling 3D Mario game ever. With Galaxy 1 currently holding that title at 12.75 million. 
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/wii.html


So, based on this information, I'll say:
Pre-orders - Mario
Launch - Call of Duty
Lifetime - Wait and see



A 6 million install base vs a 62 million install base, simple math...



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If we are just comparing Ps4 COD with SMO then i say SMO wins the preorders. 5k behind and gaining 2k preorders a week, so it should overtake COD in 2 weeks. I'm actually going to go out on a limb and buck the trend and say, SMO wins on all 3. Nintendo buying habits tend to be:- less preordering but decent 1st week sales and exceptional legs. COD more frontloaded and every year a new release cuts off its legs.



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Mar1217 said:
My hope : SMO

Reality : *ugh* COD ....

I'm not quite at an "ugh" with Call of Duty, but yeah, if we're talking in the US this year, I would much prefer MO pull off the most sales but it's likely going to be CoD like it always is...



CoD probably? It's still a widely popular shooter series.



 

              

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CoD will win, easy. I mean yeah 60 million potential customers vs. around maybe 7 million at launch. I'd be surprised if Odyssey does beat it in pre orders. COD WWII will outsell Odyssey Lifetime as well. It's just not a question at this point. I'd love to be proven wrong but yeah.



PortisheadBiscuit said:

A 6 million install base vs a 62 million install base, simple math...

Errr...  things arent actually quite that simple.