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I think that a lot of people who didn't buy last year's disappointing COD, will buy the new one now. I think the PS4 version can reach 12M, just like Mario Odyssey.

Assuming that SMO will generaly be considered to be a very good game, and the new COD to be mediocre, I think it's slightly more likely that Mario will win lifetime.

COD will probably win year one and pre-orders.