Ah, ok. I didn't read that. 

Black Ops 3 was *hopefully* just a one time thing ..

I think CoD will win, but the advantage will be small.

In lifetime sales SMO has a little chance to win, if Switch will continue to sell well.

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=super+mario+galaxy We were both wrong on the exact sales number of Galaxy. Either that or vgchartz is off by a million. 

Pre-orders in Japan can't be used to determine how much the game will pre-order worldwide. This is because Japan is naturally going to have a much higher pre-order rate than any other country. So extrapolating on their pre-orders would be using an unrepresentative sample. The attach rate with the Wii U was high, because there was a larger concentration of hardcore fans due to low sales. If a console only sells 20 million lifetime units, then it will have a high attack rate due to half the userbase being core fans. If a console sells over 100 million units, then attach rates will be lower due to so many casuals that don't buy as many games as hardcore consumers. 

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/wii.html

Why would Japan "naturally" have a higher pre-order than any other country? They don't even like Mario that much ... besides I'm talking about pre-order sales in correlation to total sales, I don't care which pre-orders more but rather  the 2nd question which is which sells more lifetime.

Of course the Wii U had a higher congregation of hardcore fans. That's my *EXACT* point. Your point about Wii makes no sense because using attach rates is a very slippery slope. Either way, there's more data to back up the idea that attach rates are becoming better for Nintendo and not worse. We can even see this with Breath of the Wild. 

I don't even think saying Call of Duty will beat Odyssey is wrong, or that it's a hard prediction to make. Your comment just had a bunch of questionable things in it.

Given COD's downward trend despite a growing install base, SMO will do better lifetime. IW did around 7 mil on PS4, so I'd expect around 6 mil for WW2. SMO will be bottlenecked first year by the hardware, so it'll have to make up ground later.

Because that is his home country? But anyway pre-orders are a kind of meaningless thing to contest. 

I thought your point was that if my logic was right MK Wii should have sold 60 million units, therefore attach rates don't mean anything. My main argument wasn't entirely centered around attach rates. I simply pointed out the highest sales of the best selling 3D Mario game in relatively modern times, and then compared them to the highest sales of the best selling CoD game in modern times. Then I pointed out that the sales for CoD on a single console outsold Galaxy from ten years ago. 

My argument was simple. Galaxy sold 10 million (or 12 million) copies on a single console. CoD sold 14 million copies on a single console. CoD is released on more than one console. 

Wow such simple thinking im regards to Cod. I'm shocked to see such a thing on vgchartz. Then please tell me why did BO III sell better than AW? 

I'd say that Call of Duty will sell more, it has more consoles to derive its sales from.

Ugh....dude. It should not be this hard for you to follow a conversation. I'll repost what you said and go, step by step, on why it does not make sense. 

"CoD will crush Odyssey in every sales catagory. It will have more pre-orders, more sales the first week, and more lifetime sales. "

So just to clarify, we're only talking about lifetime sales. My pre-order part was in speculation to the idea that it will outsell the best selling 3D Mario in Japan. I think it's pretty obvious COD will do better initially both in pre-orders and sales. We're clear on that, right?

"Galaxy is the highest selling 3D Mario game and it only hit 10 million on the Wii, with a 100 million user install base. The last Black Ops sold 14 million just on PS4 alone.  If the Switch winds up selling 130 million units lifetime, and Odyssey becomes a Nintendo Selects title for $20, then it might beat CoD WWII. But that's a really long shot. "

See ... this is my problem with you saying "but my comment's main point wasn't about attach rates!" Yes it was, it's literally a *majority* of your comment. My response to this was to say that talking about attach rates like that is extremely flawed. Just because Mario sold 10:100 or 1:10 on the Wii, doesn't mean it would take 130 Switch's sold in order to get Odyssey to beat COD on the PS4. That's not how attach rates work. 

I then gave the example that Mario Kart 8 Deluxe had an attach rate of 60% on the Wii U, so by your logic it would sell 60 million on Wii. Your response to this, ironically, was that "of course it would have a higher attach rate because it had few system sales and a high amount of hardcore Nintendo fans". Which, quite literally, was my point. Not only that, but Galaxy sold at least 11 million physically so that's not even the right figure you were using. Even then though, Nintendo is getting a consistent record of higher attach rates.

Also, the last Call of Duty game did not do 14 million on PS4, it did 7.57 million physically. Even though I expect WW2 to be closer to Black Ops 3 then Infinite Warfare, the COD series has a track record of 7 million ish sales on PS4. And while you might be able to excuse this with "but but but PS4 was still in it's infancy!" it's not unrealistic to think Black Ops 3 will probably be a one and done deal, it will probably be the highest selling COD on PS4 with nothing coming close. Even if WW2 did 12 million or 13 as opposed to 15, that gives Odyssey even more wiggle room then it already needs to beat it out.

So let's see ... Galaxy's  11-12 mil plus an additional million or maybe even 1.5 mil from Japan ... Hm ... already looking widely successful. But of course this is just from your example, maybe it won't beat Galaxy!

I honestly feel your comment would have just been better if it were simple, if you had just stated "Cod will beat Mario" I don't think anyone would have bothered. But your arguments were quite poor. I'd assume you'd work on argument fundamentals after you changed your guess on Switch lifetime sales from a measely 50M lifetime to 70M in the matter of a few minutes because people pointed out Holidays exist ... lol. 

I honestly don't get why people think Zelda's userbase will increase by 3-4 million but not Mario's ... like yeah Mario was already super popular ... but it could jump even farther as a super star(lol). 

CoD.