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Cerebralbore101 on 24 September 2017
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AngryLittleAlchemist said:
Cerebralbore101 said:
CoD will crush Odyssey in every sales catagory. It will have more pre-orders, more sales the first week, and more lifetime sales. Galaxy is the highest selling 3D Mario game and it only hit 10 million on the Wii, with a 100 million user install base. The last Black Ops sold 14 million just on PS4 alone. If the Switch winds up selling 130 million units lifetime, and Odyssey becomes a Nintendo Selects title for $20, then it might beat CoD WWII. But that's a really long shot.

Galaxy sold 12.75 million copies, not including the sequel. 

Galaxy's sales in Japan were 1.2 mil. Super Mario 3D Land is the best selling 3D Mario in Japan at 2.15 mil. Guess which game Odyssey is outtracking on Japanese pre-order charts?

Mario Kart Wii Sold 36.95 million units on a 100 mil install base, giving it roughly a 37% attach rate. Mario Kart 8 on Wii U sold 8.35 mil on a 14 mil install base giving it roughly a 60% attach rate. By your logic, would Mario Kart 8 have sold 60 million on a 100 million console install base?

If anything, while using attach rates can be very dangerous in terms of speculation, using them in moderation to see a sales trend is ok. Which would make Mario Odyssey *more* likely to match COD lifetime, since attach rates for Nintendo games have gotten better at least on Wii U. 

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=super+mario+galaxy We were both wrong on the exact sales number of Galaxy. Either that or vgchartz is off by a million. 

Pre-orders in Japan can't be used to determine how much the game will pre-order worldwide. This is because Japan is naturally going to have a much higher pre-order rate than any other country. So extrapolating on their pre-orders would be using an unrepresentative sample. The attach rate with the Wii U was high, because there was a larger concentration of hardcore fans due to low sales. If a console only sells 20 million lifetime units, then it will have a high attack rate due to half the userbase being core fans. If a console sells over 100 million units, then attach rates will be lower due to so many casuals that don't buy as many games as hardcore consumers.