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AngryLittleAlchemist on 24 September 2017
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Cerebralbore101 said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

Galaxy sold 12.75 million copies, not including the sequel. 

Galaxy's sales in Japan were 1.2 mil. Super Mario 3D Land is the best selling 3D Mario in Japan at 2.15 mil. Guess which game Odyssey is outtracking on Japanese pre-order charts?

Mario Kart Wii Sold 36.95 million units on a 100 mil install base, giving it roughly a 37% attach rate. Mario Kart 8 on Wii U sold 8.35 mil on a 14 mil install base giving it roughly a 60% attach rate. By your logic, would Mario Kart 8 have sold 60 million on a 100 million console install base?

If anything, while using attach rates can be very dangerous in terms of speculation, using them in moderation to see a sales trend is ok. Which would make Mario Odyssey *more* likely to match COD lifetime, since attach rates for Nintendo games have gotten better at least on Wii U. 

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=super+mario+galaxy We were both wrong on the exact sales number of Galaxy. Either that or vgchartz is off by a million. 

Pre-orders in Japan can't be used to determine how much the game will pre-order worldwide. This is because Japan is naturally going to have a much higher pre-order rate than any other country. So extrapolating on their pre-orders would be using an unrepresentative sample. The attach rate with the Wii U was high, because there was a larger concentration of hardcore fans due to low sales. If a console only sells 20 million lifetime units, then it will have a high attack rate due to half the userbase being core fans. If a console sells over 100 million units, then attach rates will be lower due to so many casuals that don't buy as many games as hardcore consumers. 

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/wii.html

Why would Japan "naturally" have a higher pre-order than any other country? They don't even like Mario that much ... besides I'm talking about pre-order sales in correlation to total sales, I don't care which pre-orders more but rather  the 2nd question which is which sells more lifetime.

Of course the Wii U had a higher congregation of hardcore fans. That's my *EXACT* point. Your point about Wii makes no sense because using attach rates is a very slippery slope. Either way, there's more data to back up the idea that attach rates are becoming better for Nintendo and not worse. We can even see this with Breath of the Wild. 

I don't even think saying Call of Duty will beat Odyssey is wrong, or that it's a hard prediction to make. Your comment just had a bunch of questionable things in it.