By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict Lifetime Sales for All Current Consoles

 

Will 3DS or Switch sell more?

3DS 48 21.82%
 
Switch 132 60.00%
 
Tie (within 5 million) 25 11.36%
 
See results 15 6.82%
 
Total:220

3DS: 75 Million
PS4: 110 Million
XB1: 50 Million
Switch: 50 Million

3DS still sells about five million a year and should have three more years of console production. I think the third year should slow down a ton, but that's easily another 10 million units by the time Nintendo finally pulls the plug.

PS4: It's at 62 million so far, and still sells around 100,000-200,000 units a week. The system still has five to six years before Sony finally stops production. Keep in mind that both the PS3 and PS2 were still being made years after their successors launched.

XB1: MS has given up but they still match 3DS sales. Over the next four years they should be able to stick to 5 million a year or so. I don't see the XB1 staying in production for as long as the other systems though. MS is retreating from the console market. XB1X is their last console model.

Switch: I think it will have a life cycle of five years (like most home-based Nintendo consoles), but unless there is a drastic hardware revision, it won't pass much beyond 50 million units. Keep in mind that Switch is popular with *gamers*, not the general public. There's a core audience of 25 million Nintendo fans most of who skipped the Wii U, and then there's about 25 million general gamers who will pick it up. IMO anything past 60 million Switches sold lifetime would be a miracle. But on the bright side, I think Switch will have a massive software attach rate, and will make Nintendo a ton of money.

The successor to the Switch will be the last man standing in a console apocalypse, where Sony/MS have left the market and every game is $80 on release with a digital only version, and $30 worth of DLC planned a month after release. 



Around the Network

PS4 - 122m
One - 53m
3DS - 75m
Switch - 79m




I make music, check it out here on Bandcamp, Spotify, and Youtube!

StarDoor said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

Superdata/Buisness Insider have it at 26. 

Does anyone say it was at 30?

Oops, sorry. I guess no one credible has : ) EA hinted at 26 mil. I'll just go with 53 : D thanks



Ok, so how the heck is everybody expecting the Switch to sell 70 million units or more? It moves 100,000 a week right now, and for all we know there's just 15 million customer looking to get a Switch right now. What I'm saying is that demand for the system could easily wind up being sated whenever the stock drought ends.



Cerebralbore101 said:
Ok, so how the heck is everybody expecting the Switch to sell 70 million units or more? It moves 100,000 a week right now, and for all we know there's just 15 million customer looking to get a Switch right now. What I'm saying is that demand for the system could easily wind up being sated whenever the stock drought ends.

This comment is kind of pointless. It's both factually innacurate(the Switch has only had a few weeks where it sold 100k, this week is 190k ... that's almost double what you just said) and it's also an argument that can be easily twisted the other way around. For all we know there could be 80+ mil people waiting for a Switch. Supply constraints make it virtually impossible to guess what the lifetime sales will be. Hint : Making a lower prediction then everyone does not automatically make the prediction more likely/accurate. 

It's honestly just kind of pointless to predict what the Switch will sell lifetime. So might as well just make your honest guess and have fun with it  



Around the Network

3DS: 75 million
PS4: 135 million
Switch: 85 million
XBO: 55 million



0331 Happiness is a belt-fed weapon

3DS 78M
vita 16M

ps4 105 mil give or take (expects ps5 in 2019)- its still trailing behind wii quite a bit, though legs will patch that
xbox 38 mil
NSW 100 mil give or take 20 mil (lol)- unlike the others, its a newborn.



3DS: 75 Million
Playstation 4: 125 Million
XBox One: 45 Million
Switch: 150 Million



Cerebralbore101 said:
Ok, so how the heck is everybody expecting the Switch to sell 70 million units or more? It moves 100,000 a week right now, and for all we know there's just 15 million customer looking to get a Switch right now. What I'm saying is that demand for the system could easily wind up being sated whenever the stock drought ends.

Probably because 3DS is going to pass 70 million and was worse in nearly every way.

Also, by what measure is Switch selling 100k a week? It sold 100k in its absolute lowest week, and 128k in its second-lowest week. Even in its worst month, May, it averaged 140k. Judging from the increased baseline in Japan's sales, it's probably selling around 160k per week now.

And, sure, I guess it's possible that only 15 million people want a Switch, and sales will fall off a cliff after selling 11 million in its first year. But that is something that has never happened before in video game history, so why would you expect that for Switch? You might as well expect PS4 sales to drop to 3 million next year after selling 20 million this year.

We have more than enough data to know that Switch is off to a great start.



AngryLittleAlchemist said:
Cerebralbore101 said:
Ok, so how the heck is everybody expecting the Switch to sell 70 million units or more? It moves 100,000 a week right now, and for all we know there's just 15 million customer looking to get a Switch right now. What I'm saying is that demand for the system could easily wind up being sated whenever the stock drought ends.

This comment is kind of pointless. It's both factually innacurate(the Switch has only had a few weeks where it sold 100k, this week is 190k ... that's almost double what you just said) and it's also an argument that can be easily twisted the other way around. For all we know there could be 80+ mil people waiting for a Switch. Supply constraints make it virtually impossible to guess what the lifetime sales will be. Hint : Making a lower prediction then everyone does not automatically make the prediction more likely/accurate. 

That's very true, but even with a sustained 200,000 units per week for the next four to five years it would still hit around 50 million. 200,000 per week for 52 weeks in a year, makes 10,400,000 per year. If Switch has another 4.5 years in it's life cycle then that's around 47 million more units (10.4 million x 4.5). But yeah, maybe there are 80 million customers out there waiting. I'll stick with my 50,000,000 sales prediction though. Not trying to be pessimistic at all. IMO 50 million units sold is a huge success.