Predict Lifetime Sales for All Current Consoles

[AngryLittleAlchemist]

Cerebralbore101 said:

AngryLittleAlchemist said:

This comment is kind of pointless. It's both factually innacurate(the Switch has only had a few weeks where it sold 100k, this week is 190k ... that's almost double what you just said) and it's also an argument that can be easily twisted the other way around. For all we know there could be 80+ mil people waiting for a Switch. Supply constraints make it virtually impossible to guess what the lifetime sales will be. Hint : Making a lower prediction then everyone does not automatically make the prediction more likely/accurate. 

That's very true, but even with a sustained 200,000 units per week for the next four to five years it would still hit around 50 million. 200,000 per week for 52 weeks in a year, makes 10,400,000 per year. If Switch has another 4.5 years in it's life cycle then that's around 47 million more units (10.4 million x 4.5). But yeah, maybe there are 80 million customers out there waiting. I'll stick with my 50,000 sales prediction though. Not trying to be pessimistic at all. IMO 50 million units sold is a huge success. 

That's fine(and to be clear I thought your original prediction was 70m, so I definitely didn't think you were a hater) but I don't think that's a very good way of thinking of this ... Playstation sold 34% of PS4's during the holidays in 2016, it was something like 6.2 million out of 17 million. That's a huge increase and trying to adjust weekly numbers down to compensate that would just be kind of overkill.

Infact, adjusting for what holiday sales would *actually* be like would put the Switch close to 80 million, assuming it can manage to sell *just* 4 million units during the holidays.

 Still, it's hard to predict the Switch sales ... so I won't say you're wrong