By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict Lifetime Sales for All Current Consoles

 

Will 3DS or Switch sell more?

3DS 48 21.82%
 
Switch 132 60.00%
 
Tie (within 5 million) 25 11.36%
 
See results 15 6.82%
 
Total:220
StarDoor said:
Cerebralbore101 said:
Ok, so how the heck is everybody expecting the Switch to sell 70 million units or more? It moves 100,000 a week right now, and for all we know there's just 15 million customer looking to get a Switch right now. What I'm saying is that demand for the system could easily wind up being sated whenever the stock drought ends.

Probably because 3DS is going to pass 70 million and was worse in nearly every way.

Also, by what measure is Switch selling 100k a week? It sold 100k in its absolute lowest week, and 128k in its second-lowest week. Even in its worst month, May, it averaged 140k. Judging from the increased baseline in Japan's sales, it's probably selling around 160k per week now.

And, sure, I guess it's possible that only 15 million people want a Switch, and sales will fall off a cliff after selling 11 million in its first year. But that is something that has never happened before in video game history, so why would you expect that for Switch? You might as well expect PS4 sales to drop to 3 million next year after selling 20 million this year.

We have more than enough data to know that Switch is off to a great start.

3DS had multiple hardware revisions though. A lot of people wound up buying two 3DS units. I can see the Switch getting a  remodel, but not five different units like the 3DS had. 3DS had 3DS Original, 3DS XL, New 3DS XL, 2DS, and New 2DS XL. 

Well, Sony hasn't had a home console bomb just yet. That's the difference. 

I agree that Switch is off to a great start. I've been estatic about it for the past four months. Go Switch go!



Around the Network
Cerebralbore101 said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

This comment is kind of pointless. It's both factually innacurate(the Switch has only had a few weeks where it sold 100k, this week is 190k ... that's almost double what you just said) and it's also an argument that can be easily twisted the other way around. For all we know there could be 80+ mil people waiting for a Switch. Supply constraints make it virtually impossible to guess what the lifetime sales will be. Hint : Making a lower prediction then everyone does not automatically make the prediction more likely/accurate. 

That's very true, but even with a sustained 200,000 units per week for the next four to five years it would still hit around 50 million. 200,000 per week for 52 weeks in a year, makes 10,400,000 per year. If Switch has another 4.5 years in it's life cycle then that's around 47 million more units (10.4 million x 4.5). But yeah, maybe there are 80 million customers out there waiting. I'll stick with my 50,000 sales prediction though. Not trying to be pessimistic at all. IMO 50 million units sold is a huge success. 

That's fine(and to be clear I thought your original prediction was 70m, so I definitely didn't think you were a hater) but I don't think that's a very good way of thinking of this ... Playstation sold 34% of PS4's during the holidays in 2016, it was something like 6.2 million out of 17 million. That's a huge increase and trying to adjust weekly numbers down to compensate that would just be kind of overkill.

Infact, adjusting for what holiday sales would *actually* be like would put the Switch close to 80 million, assuming it can manage to sell *just* 4 million units during the holidays.

 Still, it's hard to predict the Switch sales ... so I won't say you're wrong



Cerebralbore101 said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

This comment is kind of pointless. It's both factually innacurate(the Switch has only had a few weeks where it sold 100k, this week is 190k ... that's almost double what you just said) and it's also an argument that can be easily twisted the other way around. For all we know there could be 80+ mil people waiting for a Switch. Supply constraints make it virtually impossible to guess what the lifetime sales will be. Hint : Making a lower prediction then everyone does not automatically make the prediction more likely/accurate. 

That's very true, but even with a sustained 200,000 units per week for the next four to five years it would still hit around 50 million. 200,000 per week for 52 weeks in a year, makes 10,400,000 per year. If Switch has another 4.5 years in it's life cycle then that's around 47 million more units (10.4 million x 4.5). But yeah, maybe there are 80 million customers out there waiting. I'll stick with my 50,000 sales prediction though. Not trying to be pessimistic at all. IMO 50 million units sold is a huge success. 

???

Consoles don't sell at the same rate for the entirety of a year.

Over half of sales occur in the last three months of a year.

PS4 sold an average of 337k per week last year. So far in 2017, it's average has been 271k. Clearly, PS4 is on the decline, right?

No, PS4 in 2017 is actually ahead of PS4 in 2016 by over a million units.



3DS 72 million
PS4 125 million
XBO 55 Million
NSW 50 Million



StarDoor said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

That's very true, but even with a sustained 200,000 units per week for the next four to five years it would still hit around 50 million. 200,000 per week for 52 weeks in a year, makes 10,400,000 per year. If Switch has another 4.5 years in it's life cycle then that's around 47 million more units (10.4 million x 4.5). But yeah, maybe there are 80 million customers out there waiting. I'll stick with my 50,000 sales prediction though. Not trying to be pessimistic at all. IMO 50 million units sold is a huge success. 

???

Consoles don't sell at the same rate for the entirety of a year.

Over half of sales occur in the last three months of a year.

PS4 sold an average of 337k per week last year. So far in 2017, it's average has been 271k. Clearly, PS4 is on the decline, right?

No, PS4 in 2017 is actually ahead of PS4 in 2016 by over a million units.

Ouch. That's all true. Gonna have to rework all my predictions... 

3DS: 80 Million

PS4: 130 Million

XB1: 60 Million

Switch: 70 Million



Around the Network
Cerebralbore101 said:
StarDoor said:

???

Consoles don't sell at the same rate for the entirety of a year.

Over half of sales occur in the last three months of a year.

PS4 sold an average of 337k per week last year. So far in 2017, it's average has been 271k. Clearly, PS4 is on the decline, right?

No, PS4 in 2017 is actually ahead of PS4 in 2016 by over a million units.

Ouch. That's all true. Gonna have to rework all my predictions... 

3DS: 80 Million

PS4: 130 Million

XB1: 60 Million

Switch: 70 Million

Welcome to the dark side : ) 



Cerebralbore101 said:

That's very true, but even with a sustained 200,000 units per week for the next four to five years it would still hit around 50 million. 200,000 per week for 52 weeks in a year, makes 10,400,000 per year. If Switch has another 4.5 years in it's life cycle then that's around 47 million more units (10.4 million x 4.5). But yeah, maybe there are 80 million customers out there waiting. I'll stick with my 50,000,000 sales prediction though. Not trying to be pessimistic at all. IMO 50 million units sold is a huge success. 

Oh wow. For a second there I almost had a feeling holidays existed?!




I make music, check it out here on Bandcamp, Spotify, and Youtube!

Updated results table to this point.



PS4: 115M.
X1: 53M.
3DS: 75M.
Switch: 65M.



GoTY 2022:

Tagging.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.