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Forums - Sales Discussion - When Will The Switch Outsell the Xbox One?

 

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Never 147 21.68%
 
1st half 2018 31 4.57%
 
2nd half 2018 58 8.55%
 
1st half 2019 90 13.27%
 
2nd half 2019 140 20.65%
 
1st half 2020 64 9.44%
 
2nd half 2020 70 10.32%
 
1st half 2021 18 2.65%
 
2nd half 2021 21 3.10%
 
2022 and beyond 39 5.75%
 
Total:678
jamesmarkus87 said:
Never. Switch is a huge success right now, but like Wii, I don't think it will last. I think its sales will go downhill after Super Mario Odyssey.

Just like Wii sales went downhill after Super Mario Galaxy, right?



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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jamesmarkus87 said:
Never. Switch is a huge success right now, but like Wii, I don't think it will last. I think its sales will go downhill after Super Mario Odyssey.

In which world did the Wii's sales not last?

Launch: 3.0 million

Year 1: 16.5 million

Year 2: 24.2 million

Year 3: 21.3 million

Year 4: 17.3 million

Year 5: 11.5 million

Year five might look like a steep decline, but it's still 3 million units higher than any year the Xbox One has ever had.



Considering Xbox might not be using Generations anymore and MS are not suppling actual figures i say the Switch won't outsell the X1 especially if the Switch will probably only have a 5 year life span.
With titles like Halo 6 still to come aswell. Wont make it easy.



Azzanation said:
Considering Xbox might not be using Generations anymore and MS are not suppling actual figures i say the Switch won't outsell the X1 especially if the Switch will probably only have a 5 year life span.
With titles like Halo 6 still to come out come out aswell. Wont make it easy.

Why would Switch only have a 5 year lifespan? 3DS is in it's 7th year.

And Halo 6 won't be a big system seller as that crowd will already have gotten an Xbone for Halo 5.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
Azzanation said:
Considering Xbox might not be using Generations anymore and MS are not suppling actual figures i say the Switch won't outsell the X1 especially if the Switch will probably only have a 5 year life span.
With titles like Halo 6 still to come out come out aswell. Wont make it easy.

Why would Switch only have a 5 year lifespan? 3DS is in it's 7th year.

And Halo 6 won't be a big system seller as that crowd will already have gotten an Xbone for Halo 5.

I predict Nintendo to make a successor to the Switch after 5 years. I can't see the tech lasting that long with too many newer systems around the corner.

X1 will probably continue to sell. X2 will most likely be part of the X1 family and will continue to add to the sales of X1. Plus than you will have Halo 7 etc..

Doesnt matter if gamers already own an Xbox for Halo. Halo 6 will sell more systems. It will be heavily marketed and bundled plus you also have collectors and gamers that buy more than one console etc. Halo 5 made 500m on launch. Expect similar results with 6 etc.



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Azzanation said:
curl-6 said:

Why would Switch only have a 5 year lifespan? 3DS is in it's 7th year.

And Halo 6 won't be a big system seller as that crowd will already have gotten an Xbone for Halo 5.

I predict Nintendo to make a successor to the Switch after 5 years. I can't see the tech lasting that long with too many newer systems around the corner.

X1 will probably continue to sell. X2 will most likely be part of the X1 family and will continue to add to the sales of X1. Plus than you will have Halo 7 etc..

Doesnt matter if gamers already own an Xbox for Halo. Halo 6 will sell more systems. It will be heavily marketed and bundled plus you also have collectors and gamers that buy more than one console etc. Halo 5 made 500m on launch. Expect similar results with 6 etc.

The tech in the 3DS was even older for its time and 4 newer systems have come out since it's launch, yet it's in Year 7. I see no reason why Switch would have a shorter lifespan.

Halo 5 didn't even boost sales much long term, it did well enough in the holidays but a couple of months later Xbone was back to selling sub-80k weekly. If 5 couldn't change Xbone's fortunes, 6 won't either.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
Azzanation said:

I predict Nintendo to make a successor to the Switch after 5 years. I can't see the tech lasting that long with too many newer systems around the corner.

X1 will probably continue to sell. X2 will most likely be part of the X1 family and will continue to add to the sales of X1. Plus than you will have Halo 7 etc..

Doesnt matter if gamers already own an Xbox for Halo. Halo 6 will sell more systems. It will be heavily marketed and bundled plus you also have collectors and gamers that buy more than one console etc. Halo 5 made 500m on launch. Expect similar results with 6 etc.

The tech in the 3DS was even older for its time and 4 newer systems have come out since it's launch, yet it's in Year 7. I see no reason why Switch would have a shorter lifespan.

Halo 5 didn't even boost sales much long term, it did well enough in the holidays but a couple of months later Xbone was back to selling sub-80k weekly. If 5 couldn't change Xbone's fortunes, 6 won't either.

3DS is a different system to Switch. As a Console Hybrid its tech will be extremly old in 5 years (it already is outdated). Maybe for the portable market it will be fine however home console user will want something new which is one major selling point on the Switch. Also remember the 3DS has no competition while Switch does.

Halo 5 sold very well. It decline towards the end however take in consideration that Halo 5 isnt considered a great Halo game in the Halo Universe. If Halo 6 turns out to be amazing than theres your Pokemon counter. Plus there will be a Halo 7 probably in the next 4 years.

This is not including any other Major X1 titles releasing that might be huge hits etc in the next few years. I doubt MS is just going to sit there and let there system decline in sales when they have Scorpio and possibly X2 sharing the same eco system coming out.

Plus MS isnt giving figures for there console. We wont know how well its selling apart from speculations and assumptions.



Either never or late 2020 ...

1. Microsoft doesn't provide numbers anymore ...

2. We don't know about the average production cost of the Switch ... (we only have an estimate)

3. No one in the industry can depend on transistor technology to make chip production cheaper until a new lithography technology emerges ... (that's not until late 2018 with Samsung where they'll use it but not until 2020 where it becomes highly cost productive to do so)

4. Still too little data on the Switch as of yet ...

5. It's a bad idea to make comparisons between the annual sales of home consoles and portables when the former has arguably grown in market lifespan ... (7/8 years vs 5 years, it's no coincidence that the longer lifespan in
home consoles is observed in tandem with the slowing down of moore's law)



Azzanation said:
curl-6 said:

The tech in the 3DS was even older for its time and 4 newer systems have come out since it's launch, yet it's in Year 7. I see no reason why Switch would have a shorter lifespan.

Halo 5 didn't even boost sales much long term, it did well enough in the holidays but a couple of months later Xbone was back to selling sub-80k weekly. If 5 couldn't change Xbone's fortunes, 6 won't either.

3DS is a different system to Switch. As a Console Hybrid its tech will be extremly old in 5 years (it already is outdated). Maybe for the portable market it will be fine however home console user will want something new which is one major selling point on the Switch. Also remember the 3DS has no competition while Switch does.

Halo 5 sold very well. It decline towards the end however take in consideration that Halo 5 isnt considered a great Halo game in the Halo Universe. If Halo 6 turns out to be amazing than theres your Pokemon counter. Plus there will be a Halo 7 probably in the next 4 years.

This is not including any other Major X1 titles releasing that might be huge hits etc in the next few years. I doubt MS is just going to sit there and let there system decline in sales when they have Scorpio and possibly X2 sharing the same eco system coming out.

Plus MS isnt giving figures for there console. We wont know how well its selling apart from speculations and assumptions.

Switch isn't selling on graphics so it won't matter how "outdated" it is in 5 years.

And Halo is not even remotely close to being a Pokemon counter. Even at Halo's peak, a decade ago, no game in the series has ever sold as much as the recent new mainline Pokemon titles, and the Halo series has declined considerably since then.

Have you looked at the weekly charts recently? Switch is outselling Xbone by close to 2-to-1 even with severe supply constraints and a higher price, and Switch is just getting started while Xbone has already blown its load.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Holidays 2019.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!