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Forums - Sales Discussion - When Will The Switch Outsell the Xbox One?

 

?

Never 147 21.68%
 
1st half 2018 31 4.57%
 
2nd half 2018 58 8.55%
 
1st half 2019 90 13.27%
 
2nd half 2019 140 20.65%
 
1st half 2020 64 9.44%
 
2nd half 2020 70 10.32%
 
1st half 2021 18 2.65%
 
2nd half 2021 21 3.10%
 
2022 and beyond 39 5.75%
 
Total:678

I'll go with end of 2019



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curl-6 said:
Namiirei said:

Because Switch is not a handheld for nintendo, but a home console.  

I'm pretty sure they will show a real 100% handheld console in 2018/2019.

Why make a new dedicated handheld when Switch can already function as one? They've shown they cannot sustain two separate ecosystems any more, hence the Switch unifying both their handheld and console business.

Exactly. They could sustain two systems if they wanted to, but why would they do that when they don't have to. It means less fragmentation, less cost, easier for developers. The Switch will slowly push the 3DS out of its handheld throne and once that happens the support for 3DS will stop and they'll be able to put all their focus to one system.



S.T.A.G.E. said:
3sexty said:
I think some fans are being a little too optimistic here about the Switch. The thing only released a couple months back and there are already some getting upset just because people voted never. Switch is still very new and is still enjoying the fanfare of the hype surrounding a recent release. This is expected and thank goodness for Nintendo after the WiiU failure. However, this could very well taper off once the novelty wears off and I expect that it may very well do so. People have to remember it is a device trying to be a handheld as well as a home console. On the home console front I expect the appeal to not last very long as it is already quite outdated technology – and simply put the price will not justify it. I actually believe the XBOX One S has a slight advantage in the medium (and longer) term as there is a lot more room to cut prices significantly further. No one has even raised this point in this thread yet. Switch by virtue of being a dual piece hardware (console and handheld with display), means the room for a significant price reduction will be considerably constrained – same as WiiU. Also for people to predict that Switch to outsell XONE by 2019 or 2020 – that is way too optimistic. It will have to have PS 4 sales levels (of last couple of years) to achieve this – and we know that’s just not the case with Switch. The Switch will not be another Wii story. By then who knows there may even be an Xbox 4 or whatever they call it. If they decide to ditch generational categories, well than that’s another entirely different story.

I think you underestimate the DS fans. If Nintendo doesnt make a new secondary handheld during the generation of the switch and keeps the devs who work on the DS working, they can have console/ handheld quality games. This will definitely push Nintendo beyond Microsofts potential. 

But do you really think that they can keep the price of Switch as competitive as the 3DS? As I stated there is still the huge issue of Switch being costed for its hybrid abilities. That said the home console aspect of it also may lose steam somewhat quicker. In any case then Nintendo will need to relaese a home console like devise sooner than later for keeping up with the competition on the specs department. I see real issues here and a potential cliff edge.



Xbox 360 and Xbox One

Gamertag:  GamertagOz70

Kristof81 said:
curl-6 said:

Why make a new dedicated handheld when Switch can already function as one? They've shown they cannot sustain two separate ecosystems any more, hence the Switch unifying both their handheld and console business.

Exactly. They could sustain two systems if they wanted to, but why would they do that when they don't have to. It means less fragmentation, less cost, easier for developers. The Switch will slowly push the 3DS out of its handheld throne and once that happens the support for 3DS will stop and they'll be able to put all their focus to one system.

This.... this is what I think nintnedo is doing. Exactly. If nintnedo announces a new handheld they will fragment the switches potential because it's obviously trying to woo the Wii U and ds traditionalists simultaneously.



It depends, how stocks will be and sales, but 2nd half 2019. is possible.



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curl-6 said:
Azzanation said:

I like my Switch, i think its a great system. However the X1 is still selling. We dont know the exact figures as MS isn't telling anybody. Saying the X1 is getting destroyed on sales is again speculation and not actual figures. Nothing is official.

As for Halo, the franchise mainline games can sell up to 10m units. How is Halo on the decline? because of one entry? Halo 4 sits on over 9m copies and possibly 10m  by now which outsold Halo 1 and 2. That isnt a decline. They had one of the best selling Halo games recently. Sure 5 went downhill mainly due to the direction and decisions which wont be happening with Halo 6. I never said Halo will outsell Pokemon. However its a juggernaut franchise that with protential can sell double digit millions and will push Hardware.

Remember the Xbox also has massive Xmas sales and is attractive for the 4k market which will be big in the next few years and houses the big 3rd party games. Switch will sell well for awhile however its New, its still selling based off hype and the fanbase. X1 is in its 4th year, its sales will start to look small by now however there are heaps of reasons for them to raise. As an over the top example - Sea of Thieves might be the next Minecraft, we dont know. All i can say is dont base your judgment off the sales charts when one number isn't even confirmed by MS.

I see Nintendo releasing a new system in 2021 which will replace the Switch while X1X will continue to push X1 sales same goes for X2. Thats my prediction.

The most logical reason MS aren't releasing numbers is because the numbers are not good. If Xbox One was doing well, they'd be bragging about it.

The sales of Halo games have been in decline since Halo 3 in 2007, with each entry selling worse than the one preceeding it. Halo only crossed the 10 million mark once, and those days are long gone. Neither Halo 6 nor Sea of Thieves will alter Xbone's trajectory significantly, just like Halo 5 didn't, Gears of War 4 didn't, and Quantum Break didn't.

Xbox One X is too expensive to make a big difference, people will just buy the PS4 Pro instead. While Switch has carved out a niche for itself, Xbone has to compete directly with PS4, and is getting its arse kicked.

And why would Nintendo replace Switch after only 4 years? MS are the ones with a motive to replace and move on sooner.

Of course MS are hiding there numbers, back before the S model came out. They are sticking to not telling gamers the numbers because all its doing is creating negative feedback for the platform. Its smart actually not to reveal sales numbers. All MS care about is the profit at the end if the day.

Halo is on the decline yet Halo 4 is one of the best selling Halo games, out selling many of the previous ones apart from 3 and Reach? I dont understand your logic here.

X1 is too expensive yet the Switch is more expensive to buy? 

The Switch does not appeal to the 4k industry or movie industry. The Switch also lacks 3rd party support, something X1 does well im. 

How do you know Halo 6 or Sea of Thieves wont be major hits? Haha thats an assumption. I am just giving examples here. Red Dead 2 will sell well on X1 or the next GTA game.

Why would MS replace the foundation they just built? They wouldnt he heavily focused on BC games just so they can restart again. Switch will be a hard sell in afew years when 4k becomes the norm. X1 wont.

Even if the Switch doesn't outsell X1. Sales doesnt lead to quality. Switch and X1 are still great platforms with very good benefits on both.



StarDoor said:
konnichiwa said:

I am here 10 years and I saw threads as 'PS3/Xbox30 will not sell 50 million, Wii will outsell PS2 and Wiiu can outsell xone..(where wiiU was outselling xone for weeks etc) Considering the x + black friday is always good for xbox  I don't see why it is sure that during the holidays Switch will outsell the Xone. 

Cool. We've also seen threads like "PS4 will outsell PS2" and "Switch will sell less than Wii U." It doesn't override reality just because some people make crazy predictions.

The XOne has sold 2.04 million so far in 2017. The Switch has sold 2.2 million more than that in 2017, despite being on the market for two fewer months. All Nintendo has to do is ship enough units. If the Switch is selling 600k per month even at its most supply constrained, then there's no reason for it to be behind during the holidays. At worst, it'll match XOne sales.

But those were not crazy predictions, most of vgchartz believed in it. In fact if you believed that xbox 360 or PS3 could outsell the wii for a month you were basically an idiot, third party will go for Wii and games like DQ/KHIII will all be exclusive to the Wii etc.  

In 2022 someone probably will laugh with the idea that the Switch will outsell xone or laugh because switch outsold the PS2... Both technically can happen but we don't know. 






curl-6 said:
Namiirei said:

I voted for "never".

Xone is at 30 millions or something now, and will be at 45 millions (or close) near the end of 2019.
Switch will be at 13 millions after march 2018, you can double this number if you're optimist. It's still only 26 millions for march 2019.

I don't expect the switch to get a long life, 2021/2022 at best.

And unlike 3DS, nintendo can't really make tons of models with the nintendo switch, we will probably never get a swich XL, or a new switch.

Why would Switch not have a long life? 3DS is in its 7th year.

And there is nothing stopping Nintendo from making multiple models of Switch.

Bandorr said:
Surprised at the amount of "nevers".

I'm not. A lot of people don't like that the Switch is successful.

konnichiwa said:

For me it is the same as saying (does anyone think it seriously will outsell it).  We simply can't know yet what the holiday sales will be for Xone/Switch Great sure but who wins what will the gap be? So how can we know what 18-20 will be?

The evidence thus far seems pretty strongly in favour of Switch winning; it's on track to have a bigger year than Xbone has ever had despite severe supply shortages, and it still has price cuts, revisions, and Pokemon ahead of it while Xbone has already played most of its cards.

Yes I agree first year looks very impressive and I believe Pokemon will boost the sales but then you get at a point what's next and we don't know, we don't know for xbox one and we don't know yet for Switch. Will third party be a succes on the Switch how big will third party support be in 18-20? How many will go for the Switch or skip it and only makes games for Xone/PS4, next GTA?RDR2/COD/FIFA/destiny2/KHIII/Anthem/Metro and so on...






It will outsell it every week



3sexty said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

I think you underestimate the DS fans. If Nintendo doesnt make a new secondary handheld during the generation of the switch and keeps the devs who work on the DS working, they can have console/ handheld quality games. This will definitely push Nintendo beyond Microsofts potential. 

But do you really think that they can keep the price of Switch as competitive as the 3DS? As I stated there is still the huge issue of Switch being costed for its hybrid abilities. That said the home console aspect of it also may lose steam somewhat quicker. In any case then Nintendo will need to relaese a home console like devise sooner than later for keeping up with the competition on the specs department. I see real issues here and a potential cliff edge.

The Switch will only lose steam if a big company like Sony tries to pull the same thing 2-4 years down the road when technology progresses in this area, and even then the Switch is built the best it possibly could and has enough heavy hitters to likely make it a 3DS vs. Vita situation. The Switch offers something not huge in the market currently, which is a powerful gaming dedicated hybrid. I thought at first portablility would be its sort of gimmick, but after owning it for a while, it's a great feature I can't get anywhere else. The Switch has an ability that can appeal to hardcore and casuals alike, and as word continues to spread, I think it has the capability to surpass Wii sales.