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Forums - Sales Discussion - When Will The Switch Outsell the Xbox One?

 

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Never 147 21.68%
 
1st half 2018 31 4.57%
 
2nd half 2018 58 8.55%
 
1st half 2019 90 13.27%
 
2nd half 2019 140 20.65%
 
1st half 2020 64 9.44%
 
2nd half 2020 70 10.32%
 
1st half 2021 18 2.65%
 
2nd half 2021 21 3.10%
 
2022 and beyond 39 5.75%
 
Total:678

Switch: 15M this year. 30M+ next. 45-50M at 2019 ending.
Xbox: 38M this year, 45 next, 50 2019.
So, 2020. Probably first half.
Unless they release a cheaper mini switch before that and manufacture lots of units. If so, I can see 25m levels per year.



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I think some fans are being a little too optimistic here about the Switch. The thing only released a couple months back and there are already some getting upset just because people voted never. Switch is still very new and is still enjoying the fanfare of the hype surrounding a recent release. This is expected and thank goodness for Nintendo after the WiiU failure. However, this could very well taper off once the novelty wears off and I expect that it may very well do so. People have to remember it is a device trying to be a handheld as well as a home console. On the home console front I expect the appeal to not last very long as it is already quite outdated technology – and simply put the price will not justify it. I actually believe the XBOX One S has a slight advantage in the medium (and longer) term as there is a lot more room to cut prices significantly further. No one has even raised this point in this thread yet. Switch by virtue of being a dual piece hardware (console and handheld with display), means the room for a significant price reduction will be considerably constrained – same as WiiU. Also for people to predict that Switch to outsell XONE by 2019 or 2020 – that is way too optimistic. It will have to have PS 4 sales levels (of last couple of years) to achieve this – and we know that’s just not the case with Switch. The Switch will not be another Wii story. By then who knows there may even be an Xbox 4 or whatever they call it. If they decide to ditch generational categories, well than that’s another entirely different story.



Xbox 360 and Xbox One

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curl-6 said:
Azzanation said:

3DS is a different system to Switch. As a Console Hybrid its tech will be extremly old in 5 years (it already is outdated). Maybe for the portable market it will be fine however home console user will want something new which is one major selling point on the Switch. Also remember the 3DS has no competition while Switch does.

Halo 5 sold very well. It decline towards the end however take in consideration that Halo 5 isnt considered a great Halo game in the Halo Universe. If Halo 6 turns out to be amazing than theres your Pokemon counter. Plus there will be a Halo 7 probably in the next 4 years.

This is not including any other Major X1 titles releasing that might be huge hits etc in the next few years. I doubt MS is just going to sit there and let there system decline in sales when they have Scorpio and possibly X2 sharing the same eco system coming out.

Plus MS isnt giving figures for there console. We wont know how well its selling apart from speculations and assumptions.

Switch isn't selling on graphics so it won't matter how "outdated" it is in 5 years.

And Halo is not even remotely close to being a Pokemon counter. Even at Halo's peak, a decade ago, no game in the series has ever sold as much as the recent new mainline Pokemon titles, and the Halo series has declined considerably since then.

Have you looked at the weekly charts recently? Switch is outselling Xbone by close to 2-to-1 even with severe supply constraints and a higher price, and Switch is just getting started while Xbone has already blown its load.

I like my Switch, i think its a great system. However the X1 is still selling. We dont know the exact figures as MS isn't telling anybody. Saying the X1 is getting destroyed on sales is again speculation and not actual figures. Nothing is official.

As for Halo, the franchise mainline games can sell up to 10m units. How is Halo on the decline? because of one entry? Halo 4 sits on over 9m copies and possibly 10m  by now which outsold Halo 1 and 2. That isnt a decline. They had one of the best selling Halo games recently. Sure 5 went downhill mainly due to the direction and decisions which wont be happening with Halo 6. I never said Halo will outsell Pokemon. However its a juggernaut franchise that with protential can sell double digit millions and will push Hardware.

Remember the Xbox also has massive Xmas sales and is attractive for the 4k market which will be big in the next few years and houses the big 3rd party games. Switch will sell well for awhile however its New, its still selling based off hype and the fanbase. X1 is in its 4th year, its sales will start to look small by now however there are heaps of reasons for them to raise. As an over the top example - Sea of Thieves might be the next Minecraft, we dont know. All i can say is dont base your judgment off the sales charts when one number isn't even confirmed by MS.

I see Nintendo releasing a new system in 2021 which will replace the Switch while X1X will continue to push X1 sales same goes for X2. Thats my prediction.



Azzanation said:
curl-6 said:

Switch isn't selling on graphics so it won't matter how "outdated" it is in 5 years.

And Halo is not even remotely close to being a Pokemon counter. Even at Halo's peak, a decade ago, no game in the series has ever sold as much as the recent new mainline Pokemon titles, and the Halo series has declined considerably since then.

Have you looked at the weekly charts recently? Switch is outselling Xbone by close to 2-to-1 even with severe supply constraints and a higher price, and Switch is just getting started while Xbone has already blown its load.

I like my Switch, i think its a great system. However the X1 is still selling. We dont know the exact figures as MS isn't telling anybody. Saying the X1 is getting destroyed on sales is again speculation and not actual figures. Nothing is official.

As for Halo, the franchise mainline games can sell up to 10m units. How is Halo on the decline? because of one entry? Halo 4 sits on over 9m copies and possibly 10m  by now which outsold Halo 1 and 2. That isnt a decline. They had one of the best selling Halo games recently. Sure 5 went downhill mainly due to the direction and decisions which wont be happening with Halo 6. I never said Halo will outsell Pokemon. However its a juggernaut franchise that with protential can sell double digit millions and will push Hardware.

Remember the Xbox also has massive Xmas sales and is attractive for the 4k market which will be big in the next few years and houses the big 3rd party games. Switch will sell well for awhile however its New, its still selling based off hype and the fanbase. X1 is in its 4th year, its sales will start to look small by now however there are heaps of reasons for them to raise. As an over the top example - Sea of Thieves might be the next Minecraft, we dont know. All i can say is dont base your judgment off the sales charts when one number isn't even confirmed by MS.

I see Nintendo releasing a new system in 2021 which will replace the Switch while X1X will continue to push X1 sales same goes for X2. Thats my prediction.

The most logical reason MS aren't releasing numbers is because the numbers are not good. If Xbox One was doing well, they'd be bragging about it.

The sales of Halo games have been in decline since Halo 3 in 2007, with each entry selling worse than the one preceeding it. Halo only crossed the 10 million mark once, and those days are long gone. Neither Halo 6 nor Sea of Thieves will alter Xbone's trajectory significantly, just like Halo 5 didn't, Gears of War 4 didn't, and Quantum Break didn't.

Xbox One X is too expensive to make a big difference, people will just buy the PS4 Pro instead. While Switch has carved out a niche for itself, Xbone has to compete directly with PS4, and is getting its arse kicked.

And why would Nintendo replace Switch after only 4 years? MS are the ones with a motive to replace and move on sooner.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Depends entirely on how fast Nintendo can produce these things.



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3sexty said:
I think some fans are being a little too optimistic here about the Switch. The thing only released a couple months back and there are already some getting upset just because people voted never. Switch is still very new and is still enjoying the fanfare of the hype surrounding a recent release. This is expected and thank goodness for Nintendo after the WiiU failure. However, this could very well taper off once the novelty wears off and I expect that it may very well do so. People have to remember it is a device trying to be a handheld as well as a home console. On the home console front I expect the appeal to not last very long as it is already quite outdated technology – and simply put the price will not justify it. I actually believe the XBOX One S has a slight advantage in the medium (and longer) term as there is a lot more room to cut prices significantly further. No one has even raised this point in this thread yet. Switch by virtue of being a dual piece hardware (console and handheld with display), means the room for a significant price reduction will be considerably constrained – same as WiiU. Also for people to predict that Switch to outsell XONE by 2019 or 2020 – that is way too optimistic. It will have to have PS 4 sales levels (of last couple of years) to achieve this – and we know that’s just not the case with Switch. The Switch will not be another Wii story. By then who knows there may even be an Xbox 4 or whatever they call it. If they decide to ditch generational categories, well than that’s another entirely different story.

I think you underestimate the DS fans. If Nintendo doesnt make a new secondary handheld during the generation of the switch and keeps the devs who work on the DS working, they can have console/ handheld quality games. This will definitely push Nintendo beyond Microsofts potential. 



I vote late 2020. Switch is going to sell 15+ million for the next four years. (Unless something stupid happens)
The gap is like less than 30 million now so it shouldn't take too long.

The Switch will get handheld and console 1st party support. Nintendo is basically throwing their entire weight on this thing. I also expect 3rd party support to grow as time goes on. So the Switch could outsell the Xbox One even sooner.



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Just to close the gap (circa 26 million) in three years, Switch would have to sell on average over 160,000 units extra per week. On average XB1 sells 150k per week. So to outsell XB by mid 2020, we would need to see 300k+/w or 15 million units per year ... considering that XB will keep selling at the current, consistent rate.



curl-6 said:
Namiirei said:


I don't expect the switch to get a long life, 2021/2022 at best.

And unlike 3DS, nintendo can't really make tons of models with the nintendo switch, we will probably never get a swich XL, or a new switch.

Why would Switch not have a long life? 3DS is in its 7th year.

And there is nothing stopping Nintendo from making multiple models of Switch.

Because Switch is not a handheld for nintendo, but a home console.  

I'm pretty sure they will show a real 100% handheld console in 2018/2019.



Namiirei said:
curl-6 said:

Why would Switch not have a long life? 3DS is in its 7th year.

And there is nothing stopping Nintendo from making multiple models of Switch.

Because Switch is not a handheld for nintendo, but a home console.  

I'm pretty sure they will show a real 100% handheld console in 2018/2019.

Why make a new dedicated handheld when Switch can already function as one? They've shown they cannot sustain two separate ecosystems any more, hence the Switch unifying both their handheld and console business.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.