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Forums - Sales Discussion - When Will The Switch Outsell the Xbox One?

 

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Never 147 21.68%
 
1st half 2018 31 4.57%
 
2nd half 2018 58 8.55%
 
1st half 2019 90 13.27%
 
2nd half 2019 140 20.65%
 
1st half 2020 64 9.44%
 
2nd half 2020 70 10.32%
 
1st half 2021 18 2.65%
 
2nd half 2021 21 3.10%
 
2022 and beyond 39 5.75%
 
Total:678
konnichiwa said:

Yes I agree first year looks very impressive and I believe Pokemon will boost the sales but then you get at a point what's next and we don't know, we don't know for xbox one and we don't know yet for Switch. Will third party be a succes on the Switch how big will third party support be in 18-20? How many will go for the Switch or skip it and only makes games for Xone/PS4, next GTA?RDR2/COD/FIFA/destiny2/KHIII/Anthem/Metro and so on...

Switch doesn't really need AAA third party blockbusters like GTA or Destiny, just like 3DS and Wii didn't need them.

Azzanation said:
curl-6 said:

The most logical reason MS aren't releasing numbers is because the numbers are not good. If Xbox One was doing well, they'd be bragging about it.

The sales of Halo games have been in decline since Halo 3 in 2007, with each entry selling worse than the one preceeding it. Halo only crossed the 10 million mark once, and those days are long gone. Neither Halo 6 nor Sea of Thieves will alter Xbone's trajectory significantly, just like Halo 5 didn't, Gears of War 4 didn't, and Quantum Break didn't.

Xbox One X is too expensive to make a big difference, people will just buy the PS4 Pro instead. While Switch has carved out a niche for itself, Xbone has to compete directly with PS4, and is getting its arse kicked.

And why would Nintendo replace Switch after only 4 years? MS are the ones with a motive to replace and move on sooner.

Of course MS are hiding there numbers, back before the S model came out. They are sticking to not telling gamers the numbers because all its doing is creating negative feedback for the platform. Its smart actually not to reveal sales numbers. All MS care about is the profit at the end if the day.

Halo is on the decline yet Halo 4 is one of the best selling Halo games, out selling many of the previous ones apart from 3 and Reach? I dont understand your logic here.

X1 is too expensive yet the Switch is more expensive to buy? 

The Switch does not appeal to the 4k industry or movie industry. The Switch also lacks 3rd party support, something X1 does well im. 

How do you know Halo 6 or Sea of Thieves wont be major hits? Haha thats an assumption. I am just giving examples here. Red Dead 2 will sell well on X1 or the next GTA game.

Why would MS replace the foundation they just built? They wouldnt he heavily focused on BC games just so they can restart again. Switch will be a hard sell in afew years when 4k becomes the norm. X1 wont.

Even if the Switch doesn't outsell X1. Sales doesnt lead to quality. Switch and X1 are still great platforms with very good benefits on both.

It's simple; Halo Reach sold less than 3, then 4 sold less than Reach, now 5 is selling less than 4. That's a constant sales decline for the last 10 years and three entries.

And Switch is $300 USD, Xbox One X is $500. XBX is likely not going to being a big hit at that price when people can get a PS4 Pro for less. Third party support similarly won't help Xbone much cos pretty much every third party game you can get on it you can also get on the more popular PS4. Switch on the other hand doesn't really need AAA third party support, it's selling on its first party lineup. Exclusive games sell systems, and Xbox One can't match Switch in this department.

Xbox One's trajectory is pretty much set at this point in its life. The system is a well known quantity, consumer perception of it has solidified, and its major cards have mostly been played already. (Removing Kinect, price cuts, hardware revision, Halo, Gears) Nothing from now on is going to massively change its sales curve.

Switch on the other hand is tracking well ahead of Xbone already and still has many powerful cards to play, from solving its supply issues, to hardware revisions, to price cuts, to big system sellers like Pokemon, Splatoon 2, and Mario Odyssey.

And Switch won't be a hard sell in 4 years at all; the average consumer cares less about specs than you think, and by 2021 Switch will be much cheaper than it is now, and have a massive library of killer exclusives under its belt.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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One of you never people PLEASE bet me on this.



I bet the Wii U would sell more than 15M LTD by the end of 2015. He bet it would sell less. I lost.

curl-6 said:
konnichiwa said:

Yes I agree first year looks very impressive and I believe Pokemon will boost the sales but then you get at a point what's next and we don't know, we don't know for xbox one and we don't know yet for Switch. Will third party be a succes on the Switch how big will third party support be in 18-20? How many will go for the Switch or skip it and only makes games for Xone/PS4, next GTA?RDR2/COD/FIFA/destiny2/KHIII/Anthem/Metro and so on...

Switch doesn't really need AAA third party blockbusters like GTA or Destiny, just like 3DS and Wii didn't need them.

Azzanation said:

Of course MS are hiding there numbers, back before the S model came out. They are sticking to not telling gamers the numbers because all its doing is creating negative feedback for the platform. Its smart actually not to reveal sales numbers. All MS care about is the profit at the end if the day.

Halo is on the decline yet Halo 4 is one of the best selling Halo games, out selling many of the previous ones apart from 3 and Reach? I dont understand your logic here.

X1 is too expensive yet the Switch is more expensive to buy? 

The Switch does not appeal to the 4k industry or movie industry. The Switch also lacks 3rd party support, something X1 does well im. 

How do you know Halo 6 or Sea of Thieves wont be major hits? Haha thats an assumption. I am just giving examples here. Red Dead 2 will sell well on X1 or the next GTA game.

Why would MS replace the foundation they just built? They wouldnt he heavily focused on BC games just so they can restart again. Switch will be a hard sell in afew years when 4k becomes the norm. X1 wont.

Even if the Switch doesn't outsell X1. Sales doesnt lead to quality. Switch and X1 are still great platforms with very good benefits on both.

It's simple; Halo Reach sold less than 3, then 4 sold less than Reach, now 5 is selling less than 4. That's a constant sales decline for the last 10 years and three entries.

And Switch is $300 USD, Xbox One X is $500. XBX is likely not going to being a big hit at that price when people can get a PS4 Pro for less. Third party support similarly won't help Xbone much cos pretty much every third party game you can get on it you can also get on the more popular PS4. Switch on the other hand doesn't really need AAA third party support, it's selling on its first party lineup. Exclusive games sell systems, and Xbox One can't match Switch in this department.

Xbox One's trajectory is pretty much set at this point in its life. The system is a well known quantity, consumer perception of it has solidified, and its major cards have mostly been played already. (Removing Kinect, price cuts, hardware revision, Halo, Gears) Nothing from now on is going to massively change its sales curve.

Switch on the other hand is tracking well ahead of Xbone already and still has many powerful cards to play, from solving its supply issues, to hardware revisions, to price cuts, to big system sellers like Pokemon, Splatoon 2, and Mario Odyssey.

And Switch won't be a hard sell in 4 years at all; the average consumer cares less about specs than you think, and by 2021 Switch will be much cheaper than it is now, and have a massive library of killer exclusives under its belt.

Halo 4 is the 3rd best selling Halo game in the entire franchise. I wouldn't say selling 10m is in decline haha.

Also the earnings from Halo alone increases with every new entry from Halo 4 setting a record of $220m to Halo 5 setting another record in earning $500m. So decline? Far from it.

Halo also proved it can sell 5m+ on a bad game (bad being a figure of speech) in Halo 5.

Shot yourself in the foot when comparing system prices. X1X is more expensive however did you choose to ignore the Standard and S models? Interesting.. The S model isnt going anywhere. Switch will set you back a total of $400 if you want the Pro Controller which is a must have for home console users so its not a cheap platform. Set me back $589aud with Zelda, Pro Controller and Console. More than my $579aud launch X1.

You assume nothing can save Xbox like its in the need of saving haha. Its doing just fine and you never know when the next big hit is. PS3 turned its fortunes around so can X1.

Also what are you going to say when X2 is still a X1 which will only build on the current sales? Good chance it wont be a generation platform.

WiiU sold really well in its first year based off its fanbase etc. Switch hasnt past that stage yet.

Iike i said before, i enjoy both platforms which i own both of them. However again Nintendo will make a Switch successor in 5 years while MS will continue extending there platform foundation. Its my prediction doesnt have to be yours.



Azzanation said:
curl-6 said:

Switch doesn't really need AAA third party blockbusters like GTA or Destiny, just like 3DS and Wii didn't need them.

It's simple; Halo Reach sold less than 3, then 4 sold less than Reach, now 5 is selling less than 4. That's a constant sales decline for the last 10 years and three entries.

And Switch is $300 USD, Xbox One X is $500. XBX is likely not going to being a big hit at that price when people can get a PS4 Pro for less. Third party support similarly won't help Xbone much cos pretty much every third party game you can get on it you can also get on the more popular PS4. Switch on the other hand doesn't really need AAA third party support, it's selling on its first party lineup. Exclusive games sell systems, and Xbox One can't match Switch in this department.

Xbox One's trajectory is pretty much set at this point in its life. The system is a well known quantity, consumer perception of it has solidified, and its major cards have mostly been played already. (Removing Kinect, price cuts, hardware revision, Halo, Gears) Nothing from now on is going to massively change its sales curve.

Switch on the other hand is tracking well ahead of Xbone already and still has many powerful cards to play, from solving its supply issues, to hardware revisions, to price cuts, to big system sellers like Pokemon, Splatoon 2, and Mario Odyssey.

And Switch won't be a hard sell in 4 years at all; the average consumer cares less about specs than you think, and by 2021 Switch will be much cheaper than it is now, and have a massive library of killer exclusives under its belt.

Halo 4 is the 3rd best selling Halo game in the entire franchise. I wouldn't say selling 10m is in decline haha.

Also the earnings from Halo alone increases with every new entry from Halo 4 setting a record of $220m to Halo 5 setting another record in earning $500m. So decline? Far from it.

Halo also proved it can sell 5m+ on a bad game (bad being a figure of speech) in Halo 5.

Shot yourself in the foot when comparing system prices. X1X is more expensive however did you choose to ignore the Standard and S models? Interesting.. The S model isnt going anywhere. Switch will set you back a total of $400 if you want the Pro Controller which is a must have for home console users so its not a cheap platform. Set me back $589aud with Zelda, Pro Controller and Console. More than my $579aud launch X1.

You assume nothing can save Xbox like its in the need of saving haha. Its doing just fine and you never know when the next big hit is. PS3 turned its fortunes around so can X1.

Also what are you going to say when X2 is still a X1 which will only build on the current sales? Good chance it wont be a generation platform.

WiiU sold really well in its first year based off its fanbase etc. Switch hasnt past that stage yet.

Iike i said before, i enjoy both platforms which i own both of them. However again Nintendo will make a Switch successor in 5 years while MS will continue extending there platform foundation. Its my prediction doesnt have to be yours.

The last three Halo entries have all sold less than their predecessor, that is by definition a decline.

And the weekly sales charts clearly show that Switch is selling much better than the Xbox One S despite being more expensive, which demonstrates that consumers see far more value in the Switch than in Xbox One.

The "Wii U had a good start too" excuse doesn't work any more, Switch is not only significantly outpacing Wii U, but also Xbox One, and it hasn't even had its supply issues solved, price cuts, hardware revisions, and most importantly, the one thing Xbox One almost totally lacks; killer exclusives. Pretty much everything on Xbox One you can play on PS4 and PC, so there's no need to buy the console for them, while Switch will be the only place to play Splatoon 2, Mario Odyssey, next gen Pokemon, etc.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
konnichiwa said:

Yes I agree first year looks very impressive and I believe Pokemon will boost the sales but then you get at a point what's next and we don't know, we don't know for xbox one and we don't know yet for Switch. Will third party be a succes on the Switch how big will third party support be in 18-20? How many will go for the Switch or skip it and only makes games for Xone/PS4, next GTA?RDR2/COD/FIFA/destiny2/KHIII/Anthem/Metro and so on...

Switch doesn't really need AAA third party blockbusters like GTA or Destiny, just like 3DS and Wii didn't need them.

Azzanation said:

Of course MS are hiding there numbers, back before the S model came out. They are sticking to not telling gamers the numbers because all its doing is creating negative feedback for the platform. Its smart actually not to reveal sales numbers. All MS care about is the profit at the end if the day.

Halo is on the decline yet Halo 4 is one of the best selling Halo games, out selling many of the previous ones apart from 3 and Reach? I dont understand your logic here.

X1 is too expensive yet the Switch is more expensive to buy? 

The Switch does not appeal to the 4k industry or movie industry. The Switch also lacks 3rd party support, something X1 does well im. 

How do you know Halo 6 or Sea of Thieves wont be major hits? Haha thats an assumption. I am just giving examples here. Red Dead 2 will sell well on X1 or the next GTA game.

Why would MS replace the foundation they just built? They wouldnt he heavily focused on BC games just so they can restart again. Switch will be a hard sell in afew years when 4k becomes the norm. X1 wont.

Even if the Switch doesn't outsell X1. Sales doesnt lead to quality. Switch and X1 are still great platforms with very good benefits on both.

It's simple; Halo Reach sold less than 3, then 4 sold less than Reach, now 5 is selling less than 4. That's a constant sales decline for the last 10 years and three entries.

And Switch is $300 USD, Xbox One X is $500. XBX is likely not going to being a big hit at that price when people can get a PS4 Pro for less. Third party support similarly won't help Xbone much cos pretty much every third party game you can get on it you can also get on the more popular PS4. Switch on the other hand doesn't really need AAA third party support, it's selling on its first party lineup. Exclusive games sell systems, and Xbox One can't match Switch in this department.

Xbox One's trajectory is pretty much set at this point in its life. The system is a well known quantity, consumer perception of it has solidified, and its major cards have mostly been played already. (Removing Kinect, price cuts, hardware revision, Halo, Gears) Nothing from now on is going to massively change its sales curve.

Switch on the other hand is tracking well ahead of Xbone already and still has many powerful cards to play, from solving its supply issues, to hardware revisions, to price cuts, to big system sellers like Pokemon, Splatoon 2, and Mario Odyssey.

And Switch won't be a hard sell in 4 years at all; the average consumer cares less about specs than you think, and by 2021 Switch will be much cheaper than it is now, and have a massive library of killer exclusives under its belt.

The 3DS had a lot of third party support and when third party started to drop for the Wii so did it's sales. I am impressed with Nintendo's support first year for the Switch but they can not stop and have to try to make deals with third party.






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konnichiwa said:

The 3DS had a lot of third party support and when third party started to drop for the Wii so did it's sales. I am impressed with Nintendo's support first year for the Switch but they can not stop and have to try to make deals with third party.

They should by all means try to get as many games on their system as they can, but let's not overlook that even after being left high and dry when Nintendo shifted their software development to 3DS and Wii U, Wii still passed 100 million units sold. And Switch is unlikely to be similarly left high and dry before its time simply because Nintendo probably won't be making discreet consoles and portables anymore.
What's more, with Switch taking Japan by storm, it is set to inherit the 3DS's third party support.

This idea that a system cannot be successful without Western AAA multiplats is a myth that needs to die.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
konnichiwa said:

The 3DS had a lot of third party support and when third party started to drop for the Wii so did it's sales. I am impressed with Nintendo's support first year for the Switch but they can not stop and have to try to make deals with third party.

They should by all means try to get as many games on their system as they can, but let's not overlook that even after being left high and dry when Nintendo shifted their software development to 3DS and Wii U, Wii still passed 100 million units sold. And Switch is unlikely to be similarly left high and dry before its time simply because Nintendo probably won't be making discreet consoles and portables anymore.
What's more, with Switch taking Japan by storm, it is set to absorb the 3DS's third party support.

This idea that a system cannot be successful without Western AAA multiplats is a myth that needs to die.

Well I don't say it needs third party to be a succes but the Wii had a great few years and then it got less third party support, a cheaper price and even a revision(colours) and it ended up selling less.  The switch like the Wii started great and it is easy to think it becomes one of those 100 million seller systems but at this point we can't know it yet.






konnichiwa said:
curl-6 said:

They should by all means try to get as many games on their system as they can, but let's not overlook that even after being left high and dry when Nintendo shifted their software development to 3DS and Wii U, Wii still passed 100 million units sold. And Switch is unlikely to be similarly left high and dry before its time simply because Nintendo probably won't be making discreet consoles and portables anymore.
What's more, with Switch taking Japan by storm, it is set to absorb the 3DS's third party support.

This idea that a system cannot be successful without Western AAA multiplats is a myth that needs to die.

Well I don't say it needs third party to be a succes but the Wii had a great few years and then it got less third party support, a cheaper price and even a revision(colours) and it ended up selling less.  The switch like the Wii started great and it is easy to think it becomes one of those 100 million seller systems but at this point we can't know it yet.

Wii is hardly an example of a console that didn't do well though, it's the 3rd highest selling console of all time.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
konnichiwa said:

Yes I agree first year looks very impressive and I believe Pokemon will boost the sales but then you get at a point what's next and we don't know, we don't know for xbox one and we don't know yet for Switch. Will third party be a succes on the Switch how big will third party support be in 18-20? How many will go for the Switch or skip it and only makes games for Xone/PS4, next GTA?RDR2/COD/FIFA/destiny2/KHIII/Anthem/Metro and so on...

Switch doesn't really need AAA third party blockbusters like GTA or Destiny, just like 3DS and Wii didn't need them.

Azzanation said:

Of course MS are hiding there numbers, back before the S model came out. They are sticking to not telling gamers the numbers because all its doing is creating negative feedback for the platform. Its smart actually not to reveal sales numbers. All MS care about is the profit at the end if the day.

Halo is on the decline yet Halo 4 is one of the best selling Halo games, out selling many of the previous ones apart from 3 and Reach? I dont understand your logic here.

X1 is too expensive yet the Switch is more expensive to buy? 

The Switch does not appeal to the 4k industry or movie industry. The Switch also lacks 3rd party support, something X1 does well im. 

How do you know Halo 6 or Sea of Thieves wont be major hits? Haha thats an assumption. I am just giving examples here. Red Dead 2 will sell well on X1 or the next GTA game.

Why would MS replace the foundation they just built? They wouldnt he heavily focused on BC games just so they can restart again. Switch will be a hard sell in afew years when 4k becomes the norm. X1 wont.

Even if the Switch doesn't outsell X1. Sales doesnt lead to quality. Switch and X1 are still great platforms with very good benefits on both.

It's simple; Halo Reach sold less than 3, then 4 sold less than Reach, now 5 is selling less than 4. That's a constant sales decline for the last 10 years and three entries.

And Switch is $300 USD, Xbox One X is $500. XBX is likely not going to being a big hit at that price when people can get a PS4 Pro for less. Third party support similarly won't help Xbone much cos pretty much every third party game you can get on it you can also get on the more popular PS4. Switch on the other hand doesn't really need AAA third party support, it's selling on its first party lineup. Exclusive games sell systems, and Xbox One can't match Switch in this department.

Xbox One's trajectory is pretty much set at this point in its life. The system is a well known quantity, consumer perception of it has solidified, and its major cards have mostly been played already. (Removing Kinect, price cuts, hardware revision, Halo, Gears) Nothing from now on is going to massively change its sales curve.

Switch on the other hand is tracking well ahead of Xbone already and still has many powerful cards to play, from solving its supply issues, to hardware revisions, to price cuts, to big system sellers like Pokemon, Splatoon 2, and Mario Odyssey.

And Switch won't be a hard sell in 4 years at all; the average consumer cares less about specs than you think, and by 2021 Switch will be much cheaper than it is now, and have a massive library of killer exclusives under its belt.

Halo3 had no competition............. while Halo 5 has alot like Cod, BF Series, Titanfall etc.

and the sales curve.... yeah it is up YoY since 2015



Jigsawx1 said:

Halo3 had no competition............. while Halo 5 has alot like Cod, BF Series, Titanfall etc.

and the sales curve.... yeah it is up YoY since 2015

So you're saying Halo can't compete?

Being up slightly YOY doesn't change the fact that it's crawling along below 80k and being outsold by nearly 2-to-1 by Switch in the weekly charts.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.