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Forums - Sales Discussion - When Will The Switch Outsell the Xbox One?

 

?

Never 147 21.68%
 
1st half 2018 31 4.57%
 
2nd half 2018 58 8.55%
 
1st half 2019 90 13.27%
 
2nd half 2019 140 20.65%
 
1st half 2020 64 9.44%
 
2nd half 2020 70 10.32%
 
1st half 2021 18 2.65%
 
2nd half 2021 21 3.10%
 
2022 and beyond 39 5.75%
 
Total:678
RolStoppable on 16 July 2017
StarDoor said:
John2290 said:
Probably never, not at this rate with such a drop off in sales. My opinion but if it does it'll be long after Xbox 2.

Are you trolling, or just blind?

He's Irish.

On topic: Xbox One by the end of 2017: ~35m. By the end of 2018: ~43m. By the end of 2019: ~50m. By the end of 2020: ~56m. I am not putting much thought into this, merely using the same pace at which the console has been going since its launch with a small decline each year.

Switch by end of 2017: ~10m. By end of 2018: ~25m. By end of 2019: ~43m. By end of 2020: ~62m. A lot of guessing here, but since the Switch only recently launched and because the Xbox One is a moving target, I am picking the year 2020 and say it's definitely going to happen before the year 2021.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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UltimateGamer1982 on 16 July 2017

Holiday 2019. 2 1/2 years from now. Not to long.



UltimateGamer1982 on 16 July 2017
TheBraveGallade said:
late 2019 if the stock issues get fixed by next summer.
they kinda have to if pokemon for switch comes out next holiday...

Yet even with stock issues, it's already sold 4 million in 4 months. Imagine what it'll do once the holidays are here? 



VAMatt on 16 July 2017

I chose never. But, as I always say when people talk about lifetime sales of current hardware, the question doesn't really work anymore. Generations are changing. They may not exist in the way that we've come to know them. If every system is backwards and forwards compatible with the 1-3 that come before or after it, as seems likely to be the case, where does a generation start or end?



LipeJJ on 16 July 2017

2019.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

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vivster on 16 July 2017

2 years ago I would've said never but then Xbox didn't put up a fight whatsoever. Now I'd say it's possible before 2020.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

ohmylanta1003 on 16 July 2017
John2290 said:
Probably never, not at this rate with such a drop off in sales. My opinion but if it does it'll be long after Xbox 2.

Wanna bet on that?



I bet the Wii U would sell more than 15M LTD by the end of 2015. He bet it would sell less. I lost.

S.T.A.G.E. on 16 July 2017

If nintnedo converts the ds fans the Xbox one is screwed. This starts with petitioning all of the third party who worked on the ds to take the risk and make spritual successors to their ds games on the switch. If nintnedo has a mainline Pokémon game and throws all of their high quality first party at their new console/handheld... yeah, I can see the switch passing the Xbox one.



Namiirei on 16 July 2017

I voted for "never".

Xone is at 30 millions or something now, and will be at 45 millions (or close) near the end of 2019.
Switch will be at 13 millions after march 2018, you can double this number if you're optimist. It's still only 26 millions for march 2019.

I don't expect the switch to get a long life, 2021/2022 at best.

And unlike 3DS, nintendo can't really make tons of models with the nintendo switch, we will probably never get a swich XL, or a new switch.



S.T.A.G.E. on 16 July 2017
Namiirei said:

I voted for "never".

Xone is at 30 millions or something now, and will be at 45 millions (or close) near the end of 2019.
Switch will be at 13 millions after march 2018, you can double this number if you're optimist. It's still only 26 millions for march 2019.

I don't expect the switch to get a long life, 2021/2022 at best.

And unlike 3DS, nintendo can't really make tons of models with the nintendo switch, we will probably never get a swich XL, or a new switch.

There doesnt need to be a Switch XL. Nintendo just needs to pull off the proper marketing scheme, have a healthy library and have yearly stability with third party and they should be fine. No offense to Microsoft, but there is no reason to underestumate the potential of wooing the Nintendo handheld crowd. A mainline Pokemon game can bring them over to the switch.