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Forums - Sales Discussion - When Will The Switch Outsell the Xbox One?

 

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Never 147 21.68%
 
1st half 2018 31 4.57%
 
2nd half 2018 58 8.55%
 
1st half 2019 90 13.27%
 
2nd half 2019 140 20.65%
 
1st half 2020 64 9.44%
 
2nd half 2020 70 10.32%
 
1st half 2021 18 2.65%
 
2nd half 2021 21 3.10%
 
2022 and beyond 39 5.75%
 
Total:678

The Switch will never past the Xbox One since all of MS next gen console will belong to the Xbox One family



A handheld gamer only (for now).

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14m this year, 20m next year.
The flash shortage will end in 2018, Nintendo will be able to cut the price then.
So I think the Switch will outsell Xbox One as of now in 2nd half 2018.
It will outpace Xbox One by end of 1st half 2019.



Namiirei said:

I voted for "never".

Xone is at 30 millions or something now, and will be at 45 millions (or close) near the end of 2019.
Switch will be at 13 millions after march 2018, you can double this number if you're optimist. It's still only 26 millions for march 2019.

I don't expect the switch to get a long life, 2021/2022 at best.

And unlike 3DS, nintendo can't really make tons of models with the nintendo switch, we will probably never get a swich XL, or a new switch.

They could:
  • Bring out a model without active cooling and over 2x battery life in a smaller body and call it the Switch Slim.
  • Bring out a more powerful model, same size as now and call it the Super Switch, 1080p+ OLED screen, better kickstand, better wifi, docked performance (current Switch) as undocked experience.
  • Make a Switch Lite, with a smaller body, bezels same size screen (or move to a 5.x" screen) take out the active cooling and fuse the Joycon into the body, make a smaller dock.
  • Switch XL increase the size of the screen but remove the bezels so the Switch XL does not take up any extra space, and you keep Joycon compatibility.
  • Switch Go a super small device built for kids (2DS) Joycons fused to body and the screen is downsized to about 3DS XL level.
All of these are possible before the end of 2019.


40m lifetime is max so it won`t will surpass the Xone



Jranation said:
jason1637 said:

Wii U outsold the XBO ?

Nope! And thats the point xD 

But that leads to the question of what could be deemed as quicker? Anything less than an infinite number of days would count as quicker.



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When Nintendo can keep up with the demand xD

My guess is sometime 2019, probably 2nd half.



Jigsawx1 said:
40m lifetime is max so it won`t will surpass the Xone

You dont think the Switch will sell more than 40M ? What makes you think that?

I mean it's a possibility... but everything points towards a success as of right now and with confirmed upcoming games I dont think it's gonna slow down any time soon.



Mbolibombo said:
Jigsawx1 said:
40m lifetime is max so it won`t will surpass the Xone

You dont think the Switch will sell more than 40M ? What makes you think that?

I mean it's a possibility... but everything points towards a success as of right now and with confirmed upcoming games I dont think it's gonna slow down any time soon.

it was based on nothing but wishful thinking



I'd say early 2019. Depending on supply this could become late 2019 or if Nintendo can ramp production up significantly even already late 2018



Jigsawx1 said:
40m lifetime is max

Why?