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S.T.A.G.E. on 16 July 2017
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Namiirei said:

I voted for "never".

Xone is at 30 millions or something now, and will be at 45 millions (or close) near the end of 2019.
Switch will be at 13 millions after march 2018, you can double this number if you're optimist. It's still only 26 millions for march 2019.

I don't expect the switch to get a long life, 2021/2022 at best.

And unlike 3DS, nintendo can't really make tons of models with the nintendo switch, we will probably never get a swich XL, or a new switch.

There doesnt need to be a Switch XL. Nintendo just needs to pull off the proper marketing scheme, have a healthy library and have yearly stability with third party and they should be fine. No offense to Microsoft, but there is no reason to underestumate the potential of wooing the Nintendo handheld crowd. A mainline Pokemon game can bring them over to the switch.