By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sony Discussion - Predict PS4 Sales Every Year Going Forward

Shadow1980 said:

2016's numbers should be 19.4M.



Around the Network
S.T.A.G.E. said:
LethalP said:

No where near it. Closer to 140 million.

People seem to forget that Sonys keeps their consoles selling for ten years (and not just six to seven years). Its even sadder that the dont know this on a sales site.  It will pass...

" People seem to forget" .. tell me what happened to the ps3 again.. did that reach 100m?.. its even made it to 11 years lmao =)



 

Lawlight said:

2016's numbers should be 19.4M.

No. It's 17.5M. Actual LTD sales at the end of 2015 were at 35.9M, while sales at the end of 2016 were at 53.4M. 53.4 - 35.9 = 17.5.

 

JRPGfan said:

Thats not a very optimistic prediction but even that is like 112-115m.

Its a sharper drop off than I think it ll end up haveing.

Though alot of that depends on if sony are going to do a 7nm die shrink "super slim" PS4 for 149$.

My median projections have the PS4 in the 100-110M range, probably towards the higher end, and assume a Nov. 2020 release date for the PS5. Optimistically, I think it could hit 120M, but that could depend on having very strong legs. Assuming my estimates for 2017 come true, the PS4 will be sitting at 72.4M units globally. That's a very high number to be sitting at for a system that appears to be peaking. No other system has ever sold that much before peaking. The PS3 & 360 were both over 60M when they finally passed their peaks, and that was a record, and was largely due to them having very belated peaks (fifth and sixth full year, respectively). Sony is running out of people to sell PS4s to, and sooner or later, probably sooner, the PS4 is going to be entering the terminal decline phase of its sales life. With the PS4 not having nearly the market share the PS2 did in the U.S., trailing behind the PS2 in Europe (probably due to the UK market being competitive), and the Japanese market shrinking, I don't see the PS4 selling anywhere near as well as the PS2. 150+M isn't happening.

Now, it is entirely possible that Sony could try to squeeze the PS4 for all its worth to try to extend its legs while putting off the PS5 as long as possible. The rate of tech advancement is slowing down, so Sony & MS have an incentive to extend a console generation as long as possible in order to allow the tech to advance more and make the generational leap more pronounced (I think last gen was as long as it was on purpose; imagine how weak the PS4 & XBO would have been if they were launched in 2010-11). They could keep going for deep sub-$199 discounts into 2019 and beyond, which could get them a good bit above 120M, maybe even reaching 130M. But at some point in a system's life, no amount of price cutting will help improve sales. Eventually, they just run out of people who are willing to buy a current-gen system.



Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

More 3 years selling between 15 and 20 million.
Maybe 19 this year, 18 next, 16 next.(108 total)
Cheaper Slimmer ps4 and pro slim somewhere in these years.
Then(2020) ps5 will be announced and launch 2020 or 2021. It would sell still 20 million after that in the following years.
Id stick with 128 million total.



Shadow1980 said:
Lawlight said:

2016's numbers should be 19.4M.

No. It's 17.5M. Actual LTD sales at the end of 2015 were at 35.9M, while sales at the end of 2016 were at 53.4M. 53.4 - 35.9 = 17.5.

 

JRPGfan said:

Thats not a very optimistic prediction but even that is like 112-115m.

Its a sharper drop off than I think it ll end up haveing.

Though alot of that depends on if sony are going to do a 7nm die shrink "super slim" PS4 for 149$.

My median projections have the PS4 in the 100-110M range, probably towards the higher end, and assume a Nov. 2020 release date for the PS5. Optimistically, I think it could hit 120M, but that could depend on having very strong legs. Assuming my estimates for 2017 come true, the PS4 will be sitting at 72.4M units globally. That's a very high number to be sitting at for a system that appears to be peaking. No other system has ever sold that much before peaking. The PS3 & 360 were both over 60M when they finally passed their peaks, and that was a record, and was largely due to them having very belated peaks (fifth and sixth full year, respectively). Sony is running out of people to sell PS4s to, and sooner or later, probably sooner, the PS4 is going to be entering the terminal decline phase of its sales life. With the PS4 not having nearly the market share the PS2 did in the U.S., trailing behind the PS2 in Europe (probably due to the UK market being competitive), and the Japanese market shrinking, I don't see the PS4 selling anywhere near as well as the PS2. 150+M isn't happening.

Now, it is entirely possible that Sony could try to squeeze the PS4 for all its worth to try to extend its legs while putting off the PS5 as long as possible. The rate of tech advancement is slowing down, so Sony & MS have an incentive to extend a console generation as long as possible in order to allow the tech to advance more and make the generational leap more pronounced (I think last gen was as long as it was on purpose; imagine how weak the PS4 & XBO would have been if they were launched in 2010-11). They could keep going for deep sub-$199 discounts into 2019 and beyond, which could get them a good bit above 120M, maybe even reaching 130M. But at some point in a system's life, no amount of price cutting will help improve sales. Eventually, they just run out of people who are willing to buy a current-gen system.

Nopes, it's still 19.4M. Shipment numbers are the actual numbers that matters. If you disagree then I suppose you never discuss 3DS sales since it's sales numbers were never released.



Around the Network
Lawlight said:

Nopes, it's still 19.4M. Shipment numbers are the actual numbers that matters. If you disagree then I suppose you never discuss 3DS sales since it's sales numbers were never released.

The PS4 is one of the rare cases where we have actual global sales numbers that don't come from VGC. In fact, it may be the first time we got global sales numbers from the manufacturer instead of just shipments. Honestly, I prefer to not use shipments for an ongoing generation because they're not congruent with sales. Typically, I just break down sales by region, using NPD for the U.S., Media Create (or Famitsu for pre-MC numbers) for Japan, and, with the caveat that they'll often have a non-trivial margin of error, VGC for Europe.



Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

Barkley said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

People seem to forget that Sonys keeps their consoles selling for ten years

Luckily my signature should spread awareness of this issue.

Luckily Sony sells the true record setting numbers within the six to seven years of their lifecycle. Anything else is just extra. As you know, with time the numbers fall from their peak and Sony is usually cuts the price down to the lowest point from there. Once the platform hits $200 it's as good as over.



BluGamer23 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

People seem to forget that Sonys keeps their consoles selling for ten years (and not just six to seven years). Its even sadder that the dont know this on a sales site.  It will pass...

" People seem to forget" .. tell me what happened to the ps3 again.. did that reach 100m?.. its even made it to 11 years lmao =)

The 360 halved the market the PS2 expanded. The majority of the 360 gamers came from the original PS2. Don't you find it funny how Microsoft and Sony both sold around 160-170 million consoles combined? The only company that had expanded the gaming market that large outside of a Nintendo platform was Sony.



BluGamer23 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

People seem to forget that Sonys keeps their consoles selling for ten years (and not just six to seven years). Its even sadder that the dont know this on a sales site.  It will pass...

" People seem to forget" .. tell me what happened to the ps3 again.. did that reach 100m?.. its even made it to 11 years lmao =)

PS3's problem was price from launch to this day. Right now a new PS3 is more expensive than PS4. 

PS4 will be selling for $200 this holiday, next holiday it'll be at $150, by the time PS4 get's announced and releases PS4 will be selling for under a $100. 



BluGamer23 said:
Cant believe what Im reading here.. you guys really expecting it to get close to 100m in its life time?.. lol

Sure am. And this will be fun to revisit just like GT5 and Heavy Rain predictions were.