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Forums - Sony Discussion - Predict PS4 Sales Every Year Going Forward

zorg1000 said:
LethalP said:

I look at it like this, according to VGChartz the PS3 sold 13.8 million units in 2010 (It's 4th year like 2017 is to the PS4). In 2011 it sold 14.7 million units so it was up quite a bit. What if PS4 does the same in 2018? It's actually more likely it follows gen 7's sales trends than gen 6's after all.

2012 for PS3 saw a decline but it did sell over 12 million, and it was more expensive than what the PS4 is right now even in it's 6th year. I dunno, I just don't see PS4's sales trends falling below the PS3's, especially when you take into account price cuts to what could be likely $199 or below by then. I actually think my OP estimates are conservative, from 2017 to 2020.

no, PS3 had a very slow start while PS4 had a record start so using PS3 to base your sales curve on is a really bad idea.

And why did it have such a comeback? Because it dropped to $299. In the same time frame PS4 should be $100 cheaper and of course have more dominant momentum to boot. We'll see though. I just don't see people suddenly buying drastically less PS4's when there's nothing else of any note to really take it's place. Since the X1 isn't picking up that momentum any time soon.



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LethalP said:
zorg1000 said:

no, PS3 had a very slow start while PS4 had a record start so using PS3 to base your sales curve on is a really bad idea.

And why did it have such a comeback? Because it dropped to $299. In the same time frame PS4 should be $100 cheaper and of course have more dominant momentum to boot. We'll see though. I just don't see people suddenly buying drastically less PS4's when there's nothing else of any note to really take it's place. Since the X1 isn't picking up that momentum any time soon.

PS3 didnt have a sudden comeback, it slowly gained momentum from decreasing price & improved library, services, marketing, revisions, etc.

none of these things are/were an issue for PS4 at any give time so they will not have the same affect as they did for PS3.



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zorg1000 said:
LethalP said:

And why did it have such a comeback? Because it dropped to $299. In the same time frame PS4 should be $100 cheaper and of course have more dominant momentum to boot. We'll see though. I just don't see people suddenly buying drastically less PS4's when there's nothing else of any note to really take it's place. Since the X1 isn't picking up that momentum any time soon.

PS3 didnt have a sudden comeback, it slowly gained momentum from decreasing price & improved library, services, marketing, revisions, etc.

none of these things are/were an issue for PS4 at any give time so they will not have the same affect as they did for PS3.

The PS4 could use up a lot of it's steam earlier than PS3 in that sense yeah, but at the same time I see it's year 5 and 6 still being bigger than PS3's was, easy.



I think it will surpass the Wii/PS1 in late 2019. Don't think it will get anywhere near PS2/NDS.

The PS2 was useful as a cheap DVD player, and was no where near saturated in developing markets.

The PS4 is getting quite decent saturation in developing markets, and doesn't have the "cheap DVD player" thing going for it.

The NDS was the most popular handheld system, was cheap, and incentivized multiple consoles per family. So, enough said.

Also console generations seem to be shortening. The PS4/XBO are already pretty dated hardware, as evidenced by the Pro versions being a stop-gap solution.

I think 115 - 125 million is a good estimate for lifetime sales, this year is likely the PS4's peak year, but how much it falls from that peak, I can't say. It depends on which markets saturate when.



There are so many possibilities, it is really, really hard to predict. On one hand their could be more PS4 form factors, that put the PS4 hardware in many more homes, and add second devices to many PS4 owners hardware collection. On the other hand, PS4 might be closer than we think due to how under powered the PS4 CPU is, and how vital CPU power is to maintaning and growing the PSVR business.

With that said, I will break it down in a 3 ways.

1) PS4 Super Slim and PS4 Pro Slim released in 2018, With PS5 in 2019, No other Form Factors

Jan 2018 - 76 Million
Jan 2019 - 94 Million
Jan 2020 - 104 Million
End of Life - 120 Million

2) PS4 Super Slim + PS4 Pro Slim + PS4 Premium 2018, PS5 launches 2020

Jan 2018 - 76 Million
Jan 2019 - 98 Million
Jan 2020 - 116 Million
Jan 2021 - 128 Million
End of Life - 140 Million

3) PS4 Super Slim + PS4 Pro Slim + PS4 Premium 2018, PS4 Laptop/Tablet + PS4 Portable/Phone 2019, PS5 2020, PS4 Mobile Upgrades 2022, PS5 Goes Mobile 2026

Jan 2018 - 76 Million
Jan 2019 - 98 Million
Jan 2020 - 124 Million
Jan 2021 - 150 Million
Jan 2022 - 176 Million
Jan 2023 - 198 Million
Jan 2024 - 214 Million
Jan 2025 - 228 Million
End of Life - 250 Million



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2017: 20 million, 2018: 18 million, 2019: 16 million, 2020: 15 million, 2021: 12 million, 2022: 8 million, 2023: 4 million. 2024 to discontinued: 4 million.
I project 150 million ltd sales for the PS4.



Ok let me try (its gonna be cool to bring this thread back from the dead in 5 years from now and see how many of use where wrong or right).

January 2018 = 74 million (19 million in 2017)

January 2019 = 91 million (17 million in 2018)

January 2020 = 105 million (14 million in 2019)

January 2021 = 113 million (8 million in 2020) This is when the PS5 is anounced (in february) and released in the holidays, just like the PS4.

January 2022 = 118 million (5 million in 2021)

January 2023 = 120 million (2 million in 2022).

Total Sales 121 million



Dark_Lord_2008 said:
2017: 20 million, 2018: 18 million, 2019: 16 million, 2020: 15 million, 2021: 12 million, 2022: 8 million, 2023: 4 million. 2024 to discontinued: 4 million.
I project 150 million ltd sales for the PS4.

It would be seriously impressive if it gets that close to the PS2.



For Lifetime sales I think PS4+XB1 will combined sell as much as PS3+360. So around 175 million.
The difference being that the split will be XB1 at around 40-45 million and PS4 at 135-140 million.



Cant believe what Im reading here.. you guys really expecting it to get close to 100m in its life time?.. lol