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Forums - Sony Discussion - Predict PS4 Sales Every Year Going Forward



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BluGamer23 said:
Cant believe what Im reading here.. you guys really expecting it to get close to 100m in its life time?.. lol

Their forecast is easy to reach numbers.

Thats 78m by march 2018.

They like to "beat" numbers and go "who knows why it does so well" as PR.

So next year in march, it might be at 80m shipped.

Thats only 20m off from the 100m "lifetime" goal, you dont think it will reach.

March 2019, it should be around 96-97m or so shipped.

Then around the holidays of 2019, it should go over 100m.

That still leaves it another good year, before the Playstation 5 launches (in 2020 holidays).

 

I was worried before Xbox One X was shown this e3, and before knowing how the switch would effect sales (it doesnt appear to have).

I think PS4 ends up around 120-130m lifetime.



Shadow1980 said:

Thats not a very optimistic prediction but even that is like 112-115m.

Its a sharper drop off than I think it ll end up haveing.

Though alot of that depends on if sony are going to do a 7nm die shrink "super slim" PS4 for 149$.



BluGamer23 said:
Cant believe what Im reading here.. you guys really expecting it to get close to 100m in its life time?.. lol

PS3 got to 87m. Everything still points to PS4 selling significantly better.
PS4 had it's best first 6 months this year, in fact.



Hiku said:
BluGamer23 said:
Cant believe what Im reading here.. you guys really expecting it to get close to 100m in its life time?.. lol

PS3 got to 87m. Everything still points to PS4 selling significantly better.
PS4 had it's best first 6 months this year, in fact.

We re not yet 6months (come & gone) into the year :)

Anyways doing 7m+ in 5months is pretty sweet.



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My estimates:

2017: 19M

2018: 17M

2019: 16M~ (TloU2, FF7R, GT7, pricedrop to $150)

2020: 8M (Playstation 5 launches in the holiday season with GTA6 as a cross gen game)

2021+ : 5M~

Total: 120M~



Nintendo recently released the underpowered/overpriced Switch (if you see it from a pure home console gamer standpoint) PS4 is seeing a growth year on year despite Switch's strong launch. The 60M~ install base disparity will make it impossible for developers to abandon the more powerful and cheaper PS4 as their go-to system. Switch's advantages like portability won't have much of an effect on PS4's sales performance outside Japan.

Microsoft on the other hand is showing signs of exiting the Home Console medium as we know it, to make their own unique ecosystem, akin to a closed PC. Xbox will probably have a hard time justifying its existence to most potential consumers, and will continue to lose market share to traditional PCs and Playstation consoles.

I don't remember Microsoft commenting on X1X being a "mid-gen" upgrade like Sony frequently does when describing PS4 Pro. Microsoft might release a new "Xbox One" every 3 or so years, and only drop the support of the weaker 2 SemiGen-old system. X1X2 will come out alongside Playstation 5, but it won't generate similar hype levels due in part to a complete lack of exclusives or games that are fully optimized for its specs. PS5's exclusives will blow it out of the water.

MS and Nintendo are no longer competing directly with Sony. I don't see either of them pushing Sony to rush PS5.



Kyuu said:

MS and Nintendo are no longer competing directly with Sony. I don't see either of them pushing Sony to rush PS5.

Not competing directly? Indirectly then? Isn't that competition nonetheless?

They're not in the position to make them do hasty launch moves to begin with. Sony ain't Sega and this isn't the nineties.



Hunting Season is done...

I think next year could sell bigger than this year. God of war, and Spiderman will be mega mainstream hits. (Maybe TLOU Part 2 but I'm thinking 2019.)



PS4(PS5 Soon)and PC gaming

There's only 2 races: White and 'Political Agenda'
2 Genders: Male and 'Political Agenda'
2 Hairstyles for female characters: Long and 'Political Agenda'
2 Sexualities: Straight and 'Political Agenda'

BluGamer23 said:
Cant believe what Im reading here.. you guys really expecting it to get close to 100m in its life time?.. lol

Bookmarked.



PS4(PS5 Soon)and PC gaming

There's only 2 races: White and 'Political Agenda'
2 Genders: Male and 'Political Agenda'
2 Hairstyles for female characters: Long and 'Political Agenda'
2 Sexualities: Straight and 'Political Agenda'

Shipped numbaz

Jan 2018: 73M
Jan 2019: 89M
Jan 2020: 102M
Jan 2021: ~110M

It's gonna tank hard after the PS5 is announced around Q2/E3 2020, kinda PS360 severe level of tank. Still hope to see it crawl to 115-117M.

PS4 has a very nice line up for the next 2.5 years, 2020 might be a bit barren tho, I do see some sequels to Nier and Nioh, but nothing major from Sony, prolly launch with a much bigger 1st party impact this time.