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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Mario Odyssey, Breath of the Wild, and Splatoon 2 will all pass 10 million

 

What do you think?

You're right curl 273 64.24%
 
Go home curl you're drunk 152 35.76%
 
Total:425

As long as theres no Splatoon 3 for a while



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I can see it happening for Mario and Zelda. Unsure about Splatoon 2......... but that game just keeps surprising me in terms of sales. Especially at COMG right now.



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Japan alone will probably bring 1,5-2M copies in ithe first month for Splatoon 2. In fact I think Splatoon 2 will reach 5M before this holiday.

Mario Odyssey will probably sell more than 10M during it's life time, maybe even 15M !

Zelda BOTW is showing nice legs, and will probably get a nice boost during the Holiday with the 2nd DLC Pack coming up.

+ Bundles for each of them might do the job ;)



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

sc94597 said:
Ljink96 said:
...no. Mario Odyssey will be the only game to reach that number. And that's Lifetime sales. Zelda will round out at about 6.5-7 million, Splatoon 2...eh, 3 million.

What makes you think Splatoon 2 will sell less than the original? 

Splatoon

Global Total as of 06th May 2017 (units): 4.67m
Platform: Wii U
Developer: Nintendo EAD Genre: Shooter

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=Mario+Galaxy&publisher=&platform=&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

curl-6 said:
Ljink96 said:
...no. Mario Odyssey will be the only game to reach that number. And that's Lifetime sales. Zelda will round out at about 6.5-7 million, Splatoon 2...eh, 3 million.

Zelda sold 3.8 million in its first month and is showing excellent legs. Why would it then go on to sell only 6.5-7 million?

And why would Splatoon sell less on Switch than on Wii U?

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=Mario+Galaxy&publisher=&platform=&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

mZuzek said:
Ljink96 said:
Splatoon 2...eh, 3 million.

Pretty amazing that this is such a extreme lowball, when back in 2014 not even the highest predictions for Splatoon were this high.

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=Mario+Galaxy&publisher=&platform=&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

I chose galaxy because it was a huge Mario game on a platform with well over 50 million units under its belt at the time. And there's no way Splatoon is as highly regarded as a selling power house than Mario's 3D outings or even his 2D ones. If Mario 3D World was released on Switch with upgrades, I'd expect it to sell less. It's too similar to the previous game which to me at least, means lost interest for the sequel. I'd love to be wrong and I probably will be but this is what I think. Calling something a sequel and it looks like a 1:1 ratio with added content and same engine...that really doesn't rub me the right way. That would mean MK8 deluxe qualifies as a sequel which isn't true. This could go either way, there's no way to gauge if Splatoon will continue its momentum as a series. That's my prediction, don't throw stones at me just yet.



Ljink96 said:
sc94597 said:

What makes you think Splatoon 2 will sell less than the original? 

Splatoon

Global Total as of 06th May 2017 (units): 4.67m
Platform: Wii U
Developer: Nintendo EAD Genre: Shooter

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=Mario+Galaxy&publisher=&platform=&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

curl-6 said:

Zelda sold 3.8 million in its first month and is showing excellent legs. Why would it then go on to sell only 6.5-7 million?

And why would Splatoon sell less on Switch than on Wii U?

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=Mario+Galaxy&publisher=&platform=&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

mZuzek said:

Pretty amazing that this is such a extreme lowball, when back in 2014 not even the highest predictions for Splatoon were this high.

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=Mario+Galaxy&publisher=&platform=&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

I chose galaxy because it was a huge Mario game on a platform with well over 50 million units under its belt at the time. And there's no way Splatoon is as highly regarded as a selling power house than Mario's 3D outings or even his 2D ones. If Mario 3D World was released on Switch with upgrades, I'd expect it to sell less. It's too similar to the previous game which to me at least, means lost interest for the sequel. I'd love to be wrong and I probably will be but this is what I think. Calling something a sequel and it looks like a 1:1 ratio with added content and same engine...that really doesn't rub me the right way. That would mean MK8 deluxe qualifies as a sequel which isn't true. This could go either way, there's no way to gauge if Splatoon will continue its momentum as a series. That's my prediction, don't throw stones at me just yet.

Unlike Galaxy 2, Splatoon 2 is launching on a new platform that's far more successful than the one its predecessor was tethered to. Splatoon 1 was held back by being on unpopular hardware, Splatoon 2 won't be.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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Ljink96 said:

I chose galaxy because it was a huge Mario game on a platform with well over 50 million units under its belt at the time. And there's no way Splatoon is as highly regarded as a selling power house than Mario's 3D outings or even his 2D ones. If Mario 3D World was released on Switch with upgrades, I'd expect it to sell less. It's too similar to the previous game which to me at least, means lost interest for the sequel. I'd love to be wrong and I probably will be but this is what I think. Calling something a sequel and it looks like a 1:1 ratio with added content and same engine...that really doesn't rub me the right way. That would mean MK8 deluxe qualifies as a sequel which isn't true. This could go either way, there's no way to gauge if Splatoon will continue its momentum as a series. That's my prediction, don't throw stones at me just yet.

I think your comparision is a bad one becaues Super Mario Galaxy 2 released on the same platform as Super Mario galaxy. The sales potential of Super Mario Galaxy was probably already reached, and the only way to go was down. Since it was a single player game which didn't inovate, but rather just expanded the original, it makes sense that Super Mario Galaxy 2 failed to sell as much as Super Mario Galaxy. 

There are a few differences with Splatoon. 

1. The Wii U's userbase was small which limited Splatoon's sale potential. 

2. It is a multiplayer game, which means it doesn't have to break the theme and formula to sell spectacturaly (see: Super Smash Bros, Mario Kart, etc.) 

3. The Switch is different enough from the Wii U so that the experience will be different enough. Local multiplayer in Splatoon can be big, and I see this bolstering Japan's interest. 

4. Splatoon 2 is releasing early on in the Switch's life span, and has at the very least five years to bolster its sales. 

While I don't think it will sell 10 million, like curl-6 suspects, it will definitely sell more than Splatoon. 



curl-6 said:
Ljink96 said:

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=Mario+Galaxy&publisher=&platform=&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

I chose galaxy because it was a huge Mario game on a platform with well over 50 million units under its belt at the time. And there's no way Splatoon is as highly regarded as a selling power house than Mario's 3D outings or even his 2D ones. If Mario 3D World was released on Switch with upgrades, I'd expect it to sell less. It's too similar to the previous game which to me at least, means lost interest for the sequel. I'd love to be wrong and I probably will be but this is what I think. Calling something a sequel and it looks like a 1:1 ratio with added content and same engine...that really doesn't rub me the right way. That would mean MK8 deluxe qualifies as a sequel which isn't true. This could go either way, there's no way to gauge if Splatoon will continue its momentum as a series. That's my prediction, don't throw stones at me just yet.

Unlike Galaxy 2, Splatoon 2 is launching on a new platform that's far more successful than the one its predecessor was tethered to. Splatoon 1 was held back by being on unpopular hardware, Splatoon 2 won't be.

We'll see. The fact that Wii at the time was still a heavy seller and didn't manage to garner more sales is more telling I think. But if we're talking sequel territory, let's jump from Galaxy 2 to 3D World... you can't really guarantee anything at this point in time. We don't know how the fanbase is going to react to another Splatoon. There's always the vocal minority to kinda bolster and rally the troops but week 1 for me will be the most telling. However, in retrospect 3 million might have been a bit too low, I understand that much. I'll say 4.5 LT. It really depends on how Switch sells and if Splatoon 1 players see enough incentive to buy the second one. For me, I don't as I see a game running off the exact same engine with a few new perks here and there. And that's just me, I'm sure there are fans who think that's enough to come back for more. Again, I'd love to be wrong, I hope I'm wrong but at this point I just don't see the appeal for Splatoon 2. Japan disagrees whole heartedly of course but yeah, that's where I stand.



Ljink96 said:
curl-6 said:

Unlike Galaxy 2, Splatoon 2 is launching on a new platform that's far more successful than the one its predecessor was tethered to. Splatoon 1 was held back by being on unpopular hardware, Splatoon 2 won't be.

We'll see. The fact that Wii at the time was still a heavy seller and didn't manage to garner more sales is more telling I think. But if we're talking sequel territory, let's jump from Galaxy 2 to 3D World... you can't really guarantee anything at this point in time. We don't know how the fanbase is going to react to another Splatoon. There's always the vocal minority to kinda bolster and rally the troops but week 1 for me will be the most telling. However, in retrospect 3 million might have been a bit too low, I understand that much. I'll say 4.5 LT. It really depends on how Switch sells and if Splatoon 1 players see enough incentive to buy the second one. For me, I don't as I see a game running off the exact same engine with a few new perks here and there. And that's just me, I'm sure there are fans who think that's enough to come back for more. Again, I'd love to be wrong, I hope I'm wrong but at this point I just don't see the appeal for Splatoon 2. Japan disagrees whole heartedly of course but yeah, that's where I stand.

Galaxy to 3D World isn't really a good comparison as that's going from a successful console to an unsuccessful one, the opposite of Splatoon.

Splatoon will be more analogous to Smash Bros, which grew from 5-7 million on N64 and Gamecube to 13 million on Wii.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

I'll take it one step further.
Splatoon 2 will reach around 14-15 million - Pokemon levels.
Super Mario Odyssey will be around 12 million.
Breath of the Wild, it will take some time, but I do believe it will crack that 10 million mark and perhaps even go for 11.
Other games that I think will get there are Pokemon (effortlessly), Animal Crossing Switch, and maybe even Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.



sc94597 said:
Ljink96 said:

I chose galaxy because it was a huge Mario game on a platform with well over 50 million units under its belt at the time. And there's no way Splatoon is as highly regarded as a selling power house than Mario's 3D outings or even his 2D ones. If Mario 3D World was released on Switch with upgrades, I'd expect it to sell less. It's too similar to the previous game which to me at least, means lost interest for the sequel. I'd love to be wrong and I probably will be but this is what I think. Calling something a sequel and it looks like a 1:1 ratio with added content and same engine...that really doesn't rub me the right way. That would mean MK8 deluxe qualifies as a sequel which isn't true. This could go either way, there's no way to gauge if Splatoon will continue its momentum as a series. That's my prediction, don't throw stones at me just yet.

I think your comparision is a bad one becaues Super Mario Galaxy 2 released on the same platform as Super Mario galaxy. The sales potential of Super Mario Galaxy was probably already reached, and the only way to go was down. Since it was a single player game which didn't inovate, but rather just expanded the original, it makes sense that Super Mario Galaxy 2 failed to sell as much as Super Mario Galaxy. 

There are a few differences with Splatoon. 

1. The Wii U's userbase was small which limited Splatoon's sale potential. 

2. It is a multiplayer game, which means it doesn't have to break the theme and formula to sell spectacturaly (see: Super Smash Bros, Mario Kart, etc.) 

3. The Switch is different enough from the Wii U so that the experience will be different enough. Local multiplayer in Splatoon can be big, and I see this bolstering Japan's interest. 

4. Splatoon 2 is releasing early on in the Switch's life span, and has at the very least five years to bolster its sales. 

While I don't think it will sell 10 million, like curl-6 suspects, it will definitely sell more than Splatoon. 

I have other comparisons that fit the bill...there's plenty of them. Tons of games that have sequels that release on new hardware that sells less than the original. Just one game, to note Zelda: OoT and Zelda: Wind Waker. And there's games that go against that. So calling that type of comparison..bad is kinda biased. Both scenarios exist. The issue I have with Splatoon 2 and believing it'll sell past the original is that it does little to really cause me to say "wow" this is much better than the original, I have to have it" For me, I don't have that lust for Splatoon 2. There's not enough difference to make me want to get a sequel. And again, that's just me. Shooters, that's where they make their bread n' butter. Making something that works and something addictive that people will want to come back to no matter how similar the sequel is. That is a very common phenomenon, Call of Duty just to name one. I'd love to see it surpass the original, that's more cash in Nintendo's pocket and it's healthy for the entire gaming industry. There's just too many variables at this point to come up with an good conclusion. I'd have to see FW combined sales but that takes the wind out of prediction all together doesn't it?