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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Mario Odyssey, Breath of the Wild, and Splatoon 2 will all pass 10 million

 

What do you think?

You're right curl 273 64.24%
 
Go home curl you're drunk 152 35.76%
 
Total:425

Mario odyssey probably will. I expect BotW to get close but ultimately fall short. Splatoon exceeded our expectations on the WiiU. I expect that to continue and for it to grow and thrive on the Switch. Probably near double the numbers and hit 5-6 million.



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Splatoon 1 on the Wii U is at 4.8 million as of the end of March.  https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/wiiu.html 
So, it pretty much already hit that 5-6 million mark on the Wii U.
If it does double that amount, than we're looking at 10-12 million for 2 on the Switch.



Mar1217 said:
VAMatt said:
Unlikely, as those games all launch when the system has a small install base. Nintendo games tend to have good legs. But, assuming Nintendo keeps a solid stream of good games coming to the system, it will be difficult for early games to sell millions of copies for years after release.

That's where bundles come into play

I guess Splatoon is the least likely to hit 10mm.  So, if they bundle it with the system, it would significantly increase the odds of this happening.  I don't think 10mm is a guarantee for Zelda either though.  Odyessy will probably hit it, assuming it is a decent game, and switch sells at least 30mm lifetime.  If its a great game, it could hit 10mm even if Switch only sells 20mm.  



curl-6 said:
Ljink96 said:

We'll see. The fact that Wii at the time was still a heavy seller and didn't manage to garner more sales is more telling I think. But if we're talking sequel territory, let's jump from Galaxy 2 to 3D World... you can't really guarantee anything at this point in time. We don't know how the fanbase is going to react to another Splatoon. There's always the vocal minority to kinda bolster and rally the troops but week 1 for me will be the most telling. However, in retrospect 3 million might have been a bit too low, I understand that much. I'll say 4.5 LT. It really depends on how Switch sells and if Splatoon 1 players see enough incentive to buy the second one. For me, I don't as I see a game running off the exact same engine with a few new perks here and there. And that's just me, I'm sure there are fans who think that's enough to come back for more. Again, I'd love to be wrong, I hope I'm wrong but at this point I just don't see the appeal for Splatoon 2. Japan disagrees whole heartedly of course but yeah, that's where I stand.

Galaxy to 3D World isn't really a good comparison as that's going from a successful console to an unsuccessful one, the opposite of Splatoon.

Splatoon will be more analogous to Smash Bros, which grew from 5-7 million on N64 and Gamecube to 13 million on Wii.

Mkay, how do you fancy Metroid Prime? And even then that's a cheap shot because that's the only dead and gone era we have of an uncessessful Nintendo platform that we can compare to a successor (Wii). Can't really compare Switch to Wii U LT right now so its even harder to gauge. There simply isn't enough data to make an educated guess. My point is, we'll never know when and to what extent fans will get turned off by a franchise. I think the Splatoon fanbase will respond well to this game but not as well as everyone is expecting it to.



If Switch can stay insanely hot, then I can see only two out of those three reaching 10m.



e=mc^2

Gaming on: PS4 Pro, Switch, SNES Mini, Wii U, PC (i5-7400, GTX 1060)

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Ljink96 said:

We'll see. The fact that Wii at the time was still a heavy seller and didn't manage to garner more sales is more telling I think. But if we're talking sequel territory, let's jump from Galaxy 2 to 3D World... you can't really guarantee anything at this point in time. We don't know how the fanbase is going to react to another Splatoon. There's always the vocal minority to kinda bolster and rally the troops but week 1 for me will be the most telling. However, in retrospect 3 million might have been a bit too low, I understand that much. I'll say 4.5 LT. It really depends on how Switch sells and if Splatoon 1 players see enough incentive to buy the second one. For me, I don't as I see a game running off the exact same engine with a few new perks here and there. And that's just me, I'm sure there are fans who think that's enough to come back for more. Again, I'd love to be wrong, I hope I'm wrong but at this point I just don't see the appeal for Splatoon 2. Japan disagrees whole heartedly of course but yeah, that's where I stand.

You realize who you're arguing with, right? Curl is known for his unrealistic pessimism at times, and you are lowballing harder than he is. There's no reason to hope you are wrong. 



Carl is a Piplup hater and deserves to be punished eternally.

Not zelda.
But Id put Mario kart 8 deluxe instead in this mark.



Grats Curl, as far as I can tell this is the first bold prediction VGC has ever had. Usually the ones claiming to be bold are actually either safe or ridiculous, but this one... is actually bold!

Although Mario is the only one I can personally see doing it, so I expect you'll be wrong anyways



Ljink96 said:
curl-6 said:

Galaxy to 3D World isn't really a good comparison as that's going from a successful console to an unsuccessful one, the opposite of Splatoon.

Splatoon will be more analogous to Smash Bros, which grew from 5-7 million on N64 and Gamecube to 13 million on Wii.

Mkay, how do you fancy Metroid Prime? And even then that's a cheap shot because that's the only dead and gone era we have of an uncessessful Nintendo platform that we can compare to a successor (Wii). Can't really compare Switch to Wii U LT right now so its even harder to gauge. There simply isn't enough data to make an educated guess. My point is, we'll never know when and to what extent fans will get turned off by a franchise. I think the Splatoon fanbase will respond well to this game but not as well as everyone is expecting it to.

As a casual-friendly multiplayer game that presents a Nintendo take on a popular genre, Splatoon is more similar to Smash Bros than Prime and I expect sales trends to reflect that.

Splatoon has thus far been handicapped by only being available on a system nobody wanted. And yet it still managed to sell about 5 million. That shows just how strong an IP it is. And now that handicap is about to be removed, as Splatoon 2 will be launching on a desirable system. If it can do 5 million when tethered to an unappealing failed system, 10 million on a system that's selling like hotcakes seems quite probable to me.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

I agree on Zelda and Mario. Splatoon is the more mystery one. It could really blow up as it actually has a decent local multiplayer option this time. We could see an Animal Crossing GC to DS type of sales increase. I think it is more likely for Splatoon 2 to hit 10 million than to not.



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