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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Mario Odyssey, Breath of the Wild, and Splatoon 2 will all pass 10 million

 

What do you think?

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Total:425
Solid-Stark on 16 June 2017

If Switch can stay insanely hot, then I can see only two out of those three reaching 10m.



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NintendoPie on 16 June 2017
Ljink96 said:

We'll see. The fact that Wii at the time was still a heavy seller and didn't manage to garner more sales is more telling I think. But if we're talking sequel territory, let's jump from Galaxy 2 to 3D World... you can't really guarantee anything at this point in time. We don't know how the fanbase is going to react to another Splatoon. There's always the vocal minority to kinda bolster and rally the troops but week 1 for me will be the most telling. However, in retrospect 3 million might have been a bit too low, I understand that much. I'll say 4.5 LT. It really depends on how Switch sells and if Splatoon 1 players see enough incentive to buy the second one. For me, I don't as I see a game running off the exact same engine with a few new perks here and there. And that's just me, I'm sure there are fans who think that's enough to come back for more. Again, I'd love to be wrong, I hope I'm wrong but at this point I just don't see the appeal for Splatoon 2. Japan disagrees whole heartedly of course but yeah, that's where I stand.

You realize who you're arguing with, right? Curl is known for his unrealistic pessimism at times, and you are lowballing harder than he is. There's no reason to hope you are wrong. 



jonathanalis on 16 June 2017

Not zelda.
But Id put Mario kart 8 deluxe instead in this mark.



curl-6 on 16 June 2017
Ljink96 said:
curl-6 said:

Galaxy to 3D World isn't really a good comparison as that's going from a successful console to an unsuccessful one, the opposite of Splatoon.

Splatoon will be more analogous to Smash Bros, which grew from 5-7 million on N64 and Gamecube to 13 million on Wii.

Mkay, how do you fancy Metroid Prime? And even then that's a cheap shot because that's the only dead and gone era we have of an uncessessful Nintendo platform that we can compare to a successor (Wii). Can't really compare Switch to Wii U LT right now so its even harder to gauge. There simply isn't enough data to make an educated guess. My point is, we'll never know when and to what extent fans will get turned off by a franchise. I think the Splatoon fanbase will respond well to this game but not as well as everyone is expecting it to.

As a casual-friendly multiplayer game that presents a Nintendo take on a popular genre, Splatoon is more similar to Smash Bros than Prime and I expect sales trends to reflect that.

Splatoon has thus far been handicapped by only being available on a system nobody wanted. And yet it still managed to sell about 5 million. That shows just how strong an IP it is. And now that handicap is about to be removed, as Splatoon 2 will be launching on a desirable system. If it can do 5 million when tethered to an unappealing failed system, 10 million on a system that's selling like hotcakes seems quite probable to me.



killeryoshis on 16 June 2017

I agree on Zelda and Mario. Splatoon is the more mystery one. It could really blow up as it actually has a decent local multiplayer option this time. We could see an Animal Crossing GC to DS type of sales increase. I think it is more likely for Splatoon 2 to hit 10 million than to not.



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tsogud on 16 June 2017

Zelda and Mario will make it but idk about Splatoon 2 I love Splatoon but the sequel is going to have to be supported by Nintendo far better than the original post-launch in order for it to get there.



 

vivster on 16 June 2017

First Switch has to sell 10m.



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vivster on 16 June 2017
Ka-pi96 said:
vivster said:
First Switch has to sell 10m.

You think it won't?

I think it hasn't yet. I mean imagine if the supply constraints get worse and they can only produce 5 units a month. Or if they decide that it's just too successful and stop production like they did with the NES Clasic.



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vivster on 16 June 2017
mZuzek said:
vivster said:

I think it hasn't yet. I mean imagine if the supply constraints get worse and they can only produce 5 units a month. Or if they decide that it's just too successful and stop production like they did with the NES Clasic.

I highly doubt the production can slow down as much as under 10 units a month. If anything, it's bound to stay at least above 20.

That would mean they reach their 10m goal 4 times as fast. I hope they can pull it off.



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Qwark on 16 June 2017

I don't know about Splatoon but Mario Kart 8 deluxe will easily sell 10 and maybe even 20 million units lifetime if Mario Kart 9 will not release on Switch.



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