Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Weekly, 29th April 2017 - Hardware

Nintendo winer in Europe! Thats Amazing



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the_dengle said:
curl-6 said:

If they move them to Switch then they might actually look better than Shenmue. ;)

I'm certain that won't deter you.

If the gaes don't look it, I won't have any reason to say it.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

When we look at the Switch's sales potential we have to compare it to the DS and Wii and not to the Wii U and 3DS. When the Switch price was announced I said Nintendo expected it to be a Wii / DS like phenomenon and that's why they priced it at $300: To avoid crazy selling-out situations like with the DS and Wii. 

 

For those surprised by these numbers: Look at the difference between PS4 and DS / Wii sales. (For some reason the stupid image won't show up in my post preview so you'll probably have to click the link.)

 

 

 

The PS4 has a baseline of around 250k during the year which is really great. But the Wii and DS had baselines of around 400k (!) during their peak years (for the DS that was three successive years, 2007-2009) and both of those systems were supply constrained for a long time. The Switch mimics the DS situation from 2006 (blue line) - see how the baseline fluctuates wildly but goes up throughout the year? That's Nintendo struggling to ramp up production.

Nintendo had a market of 250 million customers back then. Last generations, due to horrible hardware designs (Gamepad, 3D) Nintendo's market shrank to around 80 million customers. But Nintendo's goal with the Switch is not to outsell the 3DS and Wii U combined. It is to get back to those 150m sales the DS enjoyed, maybe even higher. 

Nintendo is now back on track when it comes to hardware and software quality it seems. If they keep this up (and we'll see soon at e3. I still don't trust Nintendo with their software decisions seeing how they willingly threw away their success to make the games they wanted) we will see a few things:

1) The return of evergreen titles: Games like ARMS, Splatoon, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, etc. will stay in the charts for a long long time (if they are good). Some games from 2007 kept selling well into 2010 during the Wii / DS generation. If Nintendo is smart the same will happen this generation. 

2) Switch demand that far exceeds the PS4: Remember, I'm not saying the Switch will outsell the DS + Wii combined. But it can get to the same level the DS did (again, see those insane 400k+ regular sales?). Nintendo's software and hardware resources will all back up the Switch and the Switch only. Back during the 7th gen Nintendo had to support two systems. Now, it's only one that will get all the games starting 2018.

3) Highly fluctuating sales: The problem with a console backed by evergreen titles is that it's a lot harder to predict demand. Demand can suddenly rise if a new title released but you can't predict if it will go down the week after that. Nintendo had huge supply problems during gen 7 because of this. Sony's baseline on the other hand is more predictable (look at the Wii graph during 2008 - sales went up and down like crazy. Same goes for the DS in Japan durng 2007-2008). 

4) People having no idea what is going on: You will continue to see posts that say "the Switch doesn't have good games" or "I know no people who are interested in the Switch". the Switch targets a different audience that's not represented on gaming message forums. It happened during the Wii / DS days and it will happen again, if Nintendo keeps their good work up. People will simply refuse to believe it and thus won't be willing to analyze it. You can see it now already when people say the success of Bomberman, Tetris, Street FIghter, etc. is due to a lack of games on the system. But the Switch customers (who is really the "Classic Nintendo customer") values games like these more than traditional hardcore gamer games.

You can bet Nintendo is doing everything they can to get Switch production up and running. There is no sane reason to keep production low. "Artificial demand" is bullshit, it's money left on the table. If Nintendo can sell 20m Switch units this fiscal year why would they willingly produce only 10m? It doesn't make any sense. The software is what sells the hardware and Nintendo has a strong line-up with games like Arms, Splatoon and Mario releasing this year. the question is: Will they keep this up? Or will they go back to their Wii U / 3DS days of "we only make the software we want! Here is another Pikmin, gimped Star Fox and Mario 3D Land, haha!" We'll see soon.



Wow Nintendo taking Sony land??!! Holy shit. Christmas is gonna be insane!!



Im no expert on this but looking at things as a gamer and seeing these numbers, Nintendo just might be able to keep this momentum all the way till Xmas which assuming Ninty can keep up with the demand, overall making this a record breaking year.
ARMS might help raising more interest during June, Splatoon 2 on July.



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Louie said:

When we look at the Switch's sales potential we have to compare it to the DS and Wii and not to the Wii U and 3DS. When the Switch price was announced I said Nintendo expected it to be a Wii / DS like phenomenon and that's why they priced it at $300: To avoid crazy selling-out situations like with the DS and Wii. 

 

For those surprised by these numbers: Look at the difference between PS4 and DS / Wii sales. (For some reason the stupid image won't show up in my post preview so you'll probably have to click the link.)

 

 

 

The PS4 has a baseline of around 250k during the year which is really great. But the Wii and DS had baselines of around 400k (!) during their peak years (for the DS that was three successive years, 2007-2009) and both of those systems were supply constrained for a long time. The Switch mimics the DS situation from 2006 (blue line) - see how the baseline fluctuates wildly but goes up throughout the year? That's Nintendo struggling to ramp up production.

Nintendo had a market of 250 million customers back then. Last generations, due to horrible hardware designs (Gamepad, 3D) Nintendo's market shrank to around 80 million customers. But Nintendo's goal with the Switch is not to outsell the 3DS and Wii U combined. It is to get back to those 150m sales the DS enjoyed, maybe even higher. 

Nintendo is now back on track when it comes to hardware and software quality it seems. If they keep this up (and we'll see soon at e3. I still don't trust Nintendo with their software decisions seeing how they willingly threw away their success to make the games they wanted) we will see a few things:

1) The return of evergreen titles: Games like ARMS, Splatoon, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, etc. will stay in the charts for a long long time (if they are good). Some games from 2007 kept selling well into 2010 during the Wii / DS generation. If Nintendo is smart the same will happen this generation. 

2) Switch demand that far exceeds the PS4: Remember, I'm not saying the Switch will outsell the DS + Wii combined. But it can get to the same level the DS did (again, see those insane 400k+ regular sales?). Nintendo's software and hardware resources will all back up the Switch and the Switch only. Back during the 7th gen Nintendo had to support two systems. Now, it's only one that will get all the games starting 2018.

3) Highly fluctuating sales: The problem with a console backed by evergreen titles is that it's a lot harder to predict demand. Demand can suddenly rise if a new title released but you can't predict if it will go down the week after that. Nintendo had huge supply problems during gen 7 because of this. Sony's baseline on the other hand is more predictable (look at the Wii graph during 2008 - sales went up and down like crazy. Same goes for the DS in Japan durng 2007-2008). 

4) People having no idea what is going on: You will continue to see posts that say "the Switch doesn't have good games" or "I know no people who are interested in the Switch". the Switch targets a different audience that's not represented on gaming message forums. It happened during the Wii / DS days and it will happen again, if Nintendo keeps their good work up. People will simply refuse to believe it and thus won't be willing to analyze it. You can see it now already when people say the success of Bomberman, Tetris, Street FIghter, etc. is due to a lack of games on the system. But the Switch customers (who is really the "Classic Nintendo customer") values games like these more than traditional hardcore gamer games.

You can bet Nintendo is doing everything they can to get Switch production up and running. There is no sane reason to keep production low. "Artificial demand" is bullshit, it's money left on the table. If Nintendo can sell 20m Switch units this fiscal year why would they willingly produce only 10m? It doesn't make any sense. The software is what sells the hardware and Nintendo has a strong line-up with games like Arms, Splatoon and Mario releasing this year. the question is: Will they keep this up? Or will they go back to their Wii U / 3DS days of "we only make the software we want! Here is another Pikmin, gimped Star Fox and Mario 3D Land, haha!" We'll see soon.

Great  and all but how does  the ps1/2 fare between  those stats.

Ps1+2 >>> ds+ wii

 

+ how can we know there is more demand for switch  then  ps4  because  its selling  well 3 months with huge games against  a 3, 5 year ps4  where the huge games still  need to come out( gow, tlou, gtsports etc) 



 

My youtube gaming page.

http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil

UltimateGamer1982 said:
Wow Nintendo taking Sony land??!! Holy shit. Christmas is gonna be insane!!

Well, Sony Land has only been Sony Land for the last 5 years. The 5 years before that it was Nintendo Land.

And it's not like Nintendo's handhelds sold bad in Europe before the DS. The Gameboy Advance and Gameboy Color were a big success. Europe being Sony Land that only Sony can dominate is a myth: In fact, Europe just follows the worldwide market trends. Since the PS1 era there has never been a generation in which any manufacturer lagged in sales in Japan or the US while being the market leader in Europe or vice versa. If Sony is successful in the US it succeeds in Europe. If Sony "fails" in the US (they never failed except the Vita but you get the idea) they "fail" in Europe.



Kyuu said:
Are these Switch numbers really THAT great considering MK8D's release? How much did Wii U sell in MK8 week?

Don't know about the Wii U but I do know that when destiny launched the PS4 sold around 360k if I remember correctly. Anyway Mario Kart is and will always be a system seller like pokemon. So I don't get why everyone is surprised that it did sell well. The real question is will the Switch still 200k weekly after it got a Mario Kart, 3D Mario and Zelda.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

xl-klaudkil said:
Louie said:

 

Great  and all but how does  the ps1/2 fare between  those stats.

Ps1+2 >>> ds+ wii

I'm not sure what you are arguing about. That Sony's sales during gen 5+6 combined were higher than Nintendo's sales during only gen 7? I think both are roughly equal in that case, around 250m units (100m PSX + 150m PS2 = 250m. A bit more than DS + Wii, as the PS2 outsold the DS by a bit.)

I'm really just not sure what you are trying to get at :p

Edit: Oh and for the second part of your post (you edited after I quoted): I don't know! As I said multiple times in my post, this is if Nintendo keeps their act together. Right now Switch demand is certainly higher than demand for PS4, seeing as the Switch just handily outsold the PS4 during Mario Kart release week while the Switch is still being sold out. As for long-term: Again, only if Nintendo keeps things up (Nintendo likes to shoot itself in the foot, it's one of their favorite hobbies).



Louie said:
xl-klaudkil said:

Great  and all but how does  the ps1/2 fare between  those stats.

Ps1+2 >>> ds+ wii

I'm not sure what you are arguing about. That Sony's sales during gen 5+6 combined were higher than Nintendo's sales during only gen 7? I think both are roughly equal in that case, around 250m units (100m PSX + 150m PS2 = 250m. A bit more than DS + Wii, as the PS2 outsold the DS by a bit.)

I'm really just not sure what you are trying to get at :p

Edit: Oh and for the second part of your post (you edited after I quoted): I don't know! As I said multiple times in my post, this is if Nintendo keeps their act together. Right now Switch demand is certainly higher than demand for PS4, seeing as the Switch just handily outsold the PS4 during Mario Kart release week while the Switch is still being sold out. As for long-term: Again, only if Nintendo keeps things up (Nintendo likes to shoot itself in the foot, it's one of their favorite hobbies).

Noo its funny  how those stats include  ds but not ps2 to make it  look like ninty owned  the world  before  ps4,it didnt.

 

Soo your saying switch will go on and outsell  ps4 easily( gamecube  and  n64 couldn't  do it and wii barely,if sony  didn't  fuck it up  ps3 would win and we know it)  and yes Nintendo  rules handheld, but from ds to 3ds there is a gigantic  decline. but  if it doesn't do that its ninty there  fault and not because  the" high" demand for 3 months. 



 

My youtube gaming page.

http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil