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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How many million sellers will the Switch have after a year?

 

How many million sellers will the Switch have after a year?

1-2. 17 3.44%
 
3-4. 63 12.75%
 
5-6. 140 28.34%
 
7-8. 120 24.29%
 
9-10. 66 13.36%
 
More than 10 million sellers. 88 17.81%
 
Total:494

$599.99 US Dollars worth.



    

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PEEPer0nni said:
I'm in the 13% . People seem to forget about 3rd party games.

For now, it's complicated to talk about most 3rd party games for the Switch. I think Minecraft will reach the million in less than a year (that game could sell a million on the NGage if a port was made today), and I think Nintendo said Bomberman R reached 500k between digital and retail, so it's also close enough. But the rest are on the air. Sonic games don't sell as well as they used to, Skylanders and Just Dance aren't really big on the console yet, Lego City is on every platform now, PuyoPuyo-Tetris is too small to get a million that fast, Skyrim is nowhere to be seen, Monster Hunter V hasn't even been announced yet (who knows if it will even come first year)... And about DQ XI, will the Switch version come at the same time as the other two? That coul affect its sales a lot.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

jason1637 said:
Darwinianevolution said:

Thanks! I'll update the thread with the numbers. Do we know what games were those?

http://www.vgchartz.com/yearly/2014/Global/

Just changed the years for the first year per console and counted the games with over a million.

That method isn't entirely accurate though, after all, it doesn't take into account when in the year the console laucnhed. For example, in 2011, Monster Hunter 3G sold under a million, but in the 3DS's first year (Feb 26 2011 - Feb 25 2012) it did considerably over 1.2 million. Using that method, early year launches are undertracked and late year launches overtracked.



Hope I'm wrong but since for now it looks like Nintendo is only one who's gonna do the the heavy lifting my answer is a generous one or two.

I mean. We don't even know what they have for next year. Even this year I can't think of anything other than Mario Odyssey.

 

EDIT: things could change though. Nintendo is like the wild card now. 



.- -... -.-. -..

PieToast said:
Hope I'm wrong but since for now it looks like Nintendo is only one who's gonna do the the heavy lifting my answer is a generous one or two.

I mean. We don't even know what they next year, ir even this year other than Mario Odyssey.

Well, Nintendo is bringing in a single year games that, in the past, were the main game for that year. A Zelda, a Mario Kart and a 3D Mario (plus Splatoon, but that is still too young). So at least those have to sell a million minimum. Most 3rd parties are "waiting", which translates to "I don't want to risk porting my game over there before the platform sells enough". Considering the WiiU, I can't blame them that much, but it's also a vicious cycle, because they don't help create that userbase. Nintendo has to be the one doing it during first year, or at least until A-AA japanese devs start bringing enough games to fill the gaps, and the rest might follows suit.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

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Definitely
Zelda
Mario Kart
Mario Odyssey
Arms
Splatoon 2
Minecraft
Pokemon Stars (if it exists and releases this year)
Dragon Quest XI (if it releases this year)

Maybe
Xenoblade 2
FIFA 18
NBA 2K18



Darwinianevolution said:
PieToast said:
Hope I'm wrong but since for now it looks like Nintendo is only one who's gonna do the the heavy lifting my answer is a generous one or two.

I mean. We don't even know what they next year, ir even this year other than Mario Odyssey.

Well, Nintendo is bringing in a single year games that, in the past, were the main game for that year. A Zelda, a Mario Kart and a 3D Mario (plus Splatoon, but that is still too young). So at least those have to sell a million minimum. Most 3rd parties are "waiting", which translates to "I don't want to risk porting my game over there before the platform sells enough". Considering the WiiU, I can't blame them that much, but it's also a vicious cycle, because they don't help create that userbase. Nintendo has to be the one doing it during first year, or at least until A-AA japanese devs start bringing enough games to fill the gaps, and the rest might follows suit.

I still have no idea what Nintendo is planing for the future. Maybe they don't know either, but I feel like 3rd parties are coming when their console become super successful. 



.- -... -.-. -..

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
1-2-Switch
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
ARMS
Splatoon 2
Minecraft
Super Mario Odyssey
Fire Emblem Warriors
Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate HD Plus
Dragon Quest XI
Super Smash Bros. 4 Deluxe

Actual million sellers may differ, but I am going with more than 10.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Out of the games we know of so far:
Breath of the Wild (already)
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Probably did it at launch)
ARMS
Splatoon 2 (This could do one million on launch with just Japan alone!)
Super Mario Odyssey
Minecraft

so 6 for sure in my view.
I'm unsure about Fire Emblem Warriors.
I'm crossing my fingers that Xenoblade 2 will do it.
I dont see 1-2 Switch legging it out



PAOerfulone said:
Out of the games we know of so far:
Breath of the Wild (already)
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Probably did it at launch)
ARMS
Splatoon 2 (This could do one million on launch with just Japan alone!)
Super Mario Odyssey
Minecraft

so 6 for sure in my view.
I'm unsure about Fire Emblem Warriors.
I'm crossing my fingers that Xenoblade 2 will do it.
I dont see 1-2 Switch legging it out

I don't know about the West, but Japan loves that kind of game, its sales there have been great. Considering the eventual Splatoon 2 release, the userbase over there will grow massively. Also, it has done fairly well in Europe too, although it will lose its legs when more games start to appear. I think it will just barely made it.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.