It still had more content than arms has right now. 4 more characters won't change it.

It depends. Does ARMS have a lot of competition from other games?

ARMS just needs to play well at it's core. Splatoon did that and they were able to add additional content as time went on.

Content check mark boxes don't mean shit if the core game is disappointing.

I think 1.5m-2m is more likely for ARMS, but what do I know?

I wonder if the "but Splatoon sold so well and no one thought it would" argument will be used every time a new Nintendo Ip launches.

I see it selling 1.5m LT.

This. Splatoon was a good exclusive new IP on a system that desperatly needed one. The Switch seems to have a far better position right about now. But even so I could see it doing anywhere from 1 to 4 million copies, depending of the critical reception and advertisement power they put behind it.

I would be surprised to see the game reaching 1M...

Lmao Splatoon was the only new IP which was successfully on Wii U. All the other dozen new IP's flopped very hard on Wii U.

1m is easy.

I plan on buying it, is all I can say on that.

However, I seriously doubt this game will need to sell a ton for Nintendo to make good profits of it. The art style/visuals are amazing, but it is an arena based multiplayer game, not like they had to design massive maps or an open world game with npcs, etc. I'm sure this game didn't cost a TON to make.