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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Kimishima expects Switch sales to reach Wii levels

chakkra said:
spemanig said:

See, there's a problem with reductive arguments like that. 3DS didn't sell poorly because it was too expensive, it sold poorly because it had a really bad library for its first 8 month. If the 3DS's first 9 months looked like the Switch's, it would have sold fine at $250. It's also not a handheld, it's a tabletop console, so it has completely different pricing expectations.

What if offers is home console games with flexibility to play off the TV, and a steady cadence of blockbuster 1st party exclusive games throughout the year, something both the 3DS and Wii U lacked. $300 is fine for that. You're undervaluing the tech and value proposition on display. The mass market won't.

And yet, Nintendo did a massive price cut on it.  Now, do you really think that Nintendo would have done that if they didnt think it was strictly necessary?

And about your last sentence, well, the Switch is kind of a new proposition in the market, so WE DONT REALLY KNOW how the market is gonna react to it. I mean, I am not saying that you cannot be optimist, but I think that keeping spectations in the low might be a healthier aproach.

Zorg addressed the first part as well as I ever could. As for the second, I never understood pretending that you have low expectations for something. The writing is on the wall for a successful platform. Why would I pretend to expect worse only to pretend to be surprised when it succeeds?

Now we don't really know how successful it will be, but we already definitively know things about the system. We know it's being marketed better than the Wii U. We know that no one is confused about what it is. We know that impressions are that it's a sleek and modern piece of tech, unlike Wii U. We know that it's slated to have a better lineup of exclusives in its first 9 months than both the Wii U and 3DS combined. We know that it's launching with one of the most anticipated games of the past 4 years, and the absolute best killer app since Wii Sports and TP on the Wii with Breath of the Wild. We know that its reveal teaser has a Youtube viewership remeniscent of the PS4's when it was revealed. We know that pre-orders are great. We know it's doing amazing in searches. We know that its support from Japanese publishers is exceptional. We know now that the Super Bowl Ad was well recieved.

We know enough about the Switch, even before making more obvious assumptions, to make an educated guess about how it's going to do well. People complained all throughout the Wii U that "if only Wii U did X, Y, and Z it would have been a hit." Switch is doing X, Y, Z and A, B, C, but I'm supposed to pretend its success, to some degree, isn't immenent because "it's healthier?" I'll take my chances.



Well, this is new.

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spemanig said:

Zorg addressed the first part as well as I ever could. As for the second, I never understood pretending that you have low expectations for something. The writing is on the wall for a successful platform. Why would I pretend to expect worse only to pretend to be surprised when it succeeds?

Now we don't really know how successful it will be, but we already definitively know things about the system. We know it's being marketed better than the Wii U. We know that no one is confused about what it is. We know that impressions are that it's a sleek and modern piece of tech, unlike Wii U. We know that it's slated to have a better lineup of exclusives in its first 9 months than both the Wii U and 3DS combined. We know that it's launching with one of the most anticipated games of the past 4 years, and the absolute best killer app since Wii Sports and TP on the Wii with Breath of the Wild. We know that its reveal teaser has a Youtube viewership remeniscent of the PS4's when it was revealed. We know that pre-orders are great. We know it's doing amazing in searches. We know that its support from Japanese publishers is exceptional. We know now that the Super Bowl Ad was well recieved.

We know enough about the Switch, even before making more obvious assumptions, to make an educated guess about how it's going to do well. People complained all throughout the Wii U that "if only Wii U did X, Y, and Z it would have been a hit." Switch is doing X, Y, Z and A, B, C, but I'm supposed to pretend its success, to some degree, isn't immenent because "it's healthier?" I'll take my chances.

Well said, spemanig.

We do know a lot of things about the Switch. This is the time to be confident in the system. The few VGC members who recognize the Switch's potential and provide sound reasoning for its imminent success will join an elite club that will be hailed as prophets for years to come.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

HollyGamer said:
He should aim for PS2 level at last close to it. Because SONY is trying to surpass PS2 sales level with PS4.

PS4 will not break PS2 level sales but will break 100+M imo which will be at least 13+M more than PS3.



Honestly, I don't see it doing better than Xbox 1.



Normchacho said:
spemanig said:

I still think it, as a unified platform, has the potential to do double that.

I still don't get how people think this is absurd. They've literally done it before already.

To who? The Wii sold to old people and kids on the back of a nearly dead gimmick, and the handheld market has collapsed.

I agree handhelds are dying except in Japan due to games on smart phones.