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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 111.08m by June 30th, Forecast for Current Fiscal Year Remains at 21.0m

rjason12 on 15 January 2017
bonzobanana said:
Well here in the UK there has been a simple rule about Nintendo launches. Every time they launch above £200 its failed horribly and its either resulted in a quick price cut like the 3DS and N64 or with the wii u it just sold in low numbers. I think the N64 was £250 and went to £150 quickly and wasn't long after it was £99 and then £69.

I personally think the 13 million of wii u's sold is very high for the low performance of games and limited range. That shows me that the Nintendo brand has some power. I don't think the Sony or Microsoft user base would have been so forgiving.

I think Nintendo hardware is always perceived as weak nowadays and therefore in people's minds it should be a relatively low cost console. This is why I think the Switch will fail in the UK at least until a large price cut. I suspect though that Nintendo will resist a price cut and do massive damage destroying future chances. I think they will expect their future titles like Mario Odyssey to turn it around on their own and by the time that has failed permanent damage would have been done.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Switch is priced at £179 with Mario Odyssey at launch if Nintendo decide to actually fight for market share rather than simply give up and go third party.

I personally think for the UK the maximum launch price they could have got away with was £209 which would have been discounted to £199.

Haha, I feel the same way, people say that the Wii U "failed" because it didn't sell as much, I say that a video game machine selling 13 and a half million consoles on basically first party alone, is pretty crazy. Sony nor microsoft would get nowhere close if all they had was first party games. And the fact that they had an 8 million selling, and a few 5 million sellers is pretty crazy. 



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SonytendoAmiibo on 15 January 2017
RolStoppable said:
SonytendoAmiibo said:
But will prior sales analysis help here. There has never been a out of the box hybrid game system before. What prior sales data do you compare it to?

Sales data always helps as long as it's interpreted correctly. The most important thing is to not limit a sales analysis to only the previous generation, but rather take the entirety of video game history into account and look for factors and circumstances that apply to an upcoming system. Another important thing is that not all console manufacturers are the same, so applying the PlayStation model for analyses to Nintendo is absolutely nonsensical.

Of course you are right that a simple 1:1 analysis with any previous system does not work with Switch because there is no previous console that fits the bill. Breaking down key points for success as well as failure in the past and looking how Switch matches up with them is the best you can do, but you still have an unknown variable because Switch is something new. Underserved and unaddressed markets add to the variables and at times you don't even know what kind of demand could be created; here the first question is if Switch can sell to people beyond Wii U and 3DS owners, and since Switch has positive traits that were either not present or only there in limited form on Wii U and 3DS, the answer for me is a clear yes. However, quantifying Switch's new ceiling for lifetime sales isn't anywhere close to as easy.

What's also in Switch's favor is that Nintendo is making serious efforts to increase their mindshare in the general public, so Nintendo's strategy goes beyond the console alone. An important question is where does Nintendo see the future? They obviously don't believe that a console should be limited to the TV anymore, and that's actually in line with human behavior where we see a shift away from the TV as the absolutely central place for entertainment consumption. Movies and TV shows can be watched on smart devices; smart devices can be carried around and enjoyed anywhere you want (although an internet connection is a necessity for many applications). Success is more likely for companies who adjust to human nature and behavior than those companies who want humans adjust to them.

Everyone, stop what you are doing and look at this. Rol has agreed with something I said. I have taken a sceenshot of this post for posterity.

OT: And thats why I wouldn't dare to make a sales prediction for Switch. Nintendo has a totally new animal here.



   

Hey! They got SONY on my amiibo! Wait a minute. Two great gaming tastes that game great together!

Switch FC: SW-0398-8858-1969

rjason12 on 15 January 2017

I can see people who downloaded Pokémon go, or Mario or seen people talk about them, making an impulse buy on the system.



ZhugeEX on 15 January 2017

I like how this was written by Nintendo corporate.



Moac on 15 January 2017

In my opinion , given what the Switch is it will sell between 70 - 90 Million , rather easily.
The 3DS sold 60Million and still has a year or two of life in it - great sales but shrinking sales when compared to the Original DS. The Switch is something very unique , Nintendo's correct assessment of the future , in my opinion, given that the smartphones are eating at the portable market and that their home-console has to compete with PS4 pro and Xbox One s and PCs. The choice of opting for an eco-system of consoles for the future is the correct one, similar to Apple with iPad and iPhone.
The Switch is the home console version of their eco-system of portables vision , Nintendo will in my opinion within 2-3 years release a portable Switch (3DS successor) - will have the same eco-system of games and most features of the Switch Home Console, maybe we will see a Screen with slide-out controls (similar to the PSPGO) - would enable a smaller form factor.
Dont be surprised to see 2 or more versions of the Switch - all with the same game library but with different form factors.


People should not worry about game support for the Switch - look at the 3DS , it has a very solid game library. Given that the Switch is MANY MANY MANY times more powerful compared to the 3DS it will see even more support from third party developers.
Nintendo and their partners need not develop games for two platforms anymore, they can focus it all on ONE SINGLE eco-system , the Nintendo Switch. The Reason the 3DS outsold the PSVita by miles are the GAMES, all those games are heading to the Switch - Pokemon , Mario , Zelda , countless RPGs etc etc.
So dont worry people , the future of the Nintendo Switch is almost already written in the stars.

In conclusion: I expect the Nintendo Switch family of systems to sell from 70 - 90 (maybe even break that 100mil mark) before we see a Switch Successor with even better specs (which most likely will still have a similar form factor to the Switch , since the Switch is the embodiment of all the Nintendo ideas of what a console aught to be).
The Nintendo Switch is the Closest product deserving of the name , Nintendo Revolution.
(ONLY Nintendo products I have ever owned are: NES , DS , 3DS)



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Mnementh on 15 January 2017
vivster said:

Isn't it sad that despite all the arguments you listed, the Switch will still fail? At least that's what my feeling is telling me.

Also you forgot to post your own prediction. It's easy to tell everyone they're wrong if you don't have an argument yourself you have to defend.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8247626



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my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

LurkerJ on 15 January 2017

1. Agree.

2. Superchunk is a vocal minority. Agree.

3. Agree. 12 people bought the Wii U, no one cares what they think.

4. Agree. Wii U's first year had lots of western multiplats, it helped... not.

5. System sellers they are, indeed. My problem is with the amount of games available to consumers in 2017 though, not just March and April. 

6. Droughts? No, I don't think so. They should've had more games ready for 2017. 

7. No arguing here.

8. I expect a continuation of decline in the west in 2017... until the Switch price comes down by a lot, but until then, I can't pit it against the 3DS. It doesn't matter if the switch is better executed than the 3DS at this point, when it's much more expensive and with an annual fee on top.

When will we get the first price cut? What if the Switch perception becomes too tarnished before it reaches an acceptable price point? 

9. Current gamers, former gamers, and even the non-gamers. In the end, The addressable market is "gamers". 

You are partially correct here. I've abstained from buying (Wii U, 3DS, PS4, PSV, XB1), they suck. It feels like generation 7.5 to many, but to me, that's an insult to generation 7. Most of these consoles took 2 steps forward and 10 steps backwards. I am not a former gamer though. PC (free-online & portability), 3DS and iOS fill my current gaming needs. 

So I guess my question is, how do we know the Switch is good for former gamers? It takes a leap of faith to say "yes" with a straight face, in my opinion. 

10. I don't care for the price. The market, however, does. The NS won't succeed the 3DS for a while. Nintendo is being greedy here, that's fine when you are in a position to play ball and if you are very confident in your product. Unless we are strictly speaking about Japan, a country that values portability a lot, you shouldn't be confident with that price tag.

You also ignore that paying for online is a very hard pill to swallow for some. One I personally haven't swallowed. Miyazaki's Demon's souls made me buy the dreaded PS3, but his bloodborne couldn't make me buy the PS4 because I refuse to pay for online gaming.



GuyDuke on 15 January 2017

I pretty much assumed that showing off Zelda, a new IP, Splat2n, Fire Emblem, MK8D, Xenoblade, Mario and others, which all are supposed to be released this year, meant that Nintendo really wanted to patch up the mega-droughts experienced with the latest 2 home consoles. Those are all pretty much their biggest franchises, and you get all of them in a single year!

And to be frank, I've never wanted so many games in a single year, games coming from them on a steady stream throughout every quarter. It's quite an exceptional situation that never occured before both on Wii and Wii U. Hell, it may be one of their best summer window ever. It will never be as many as what the PS4 gets, but it's a big step-up in 1st party offering.



rjason12 on 15 January 2017
guiduc said:
I pretty much assumed that showing off Zelda, a new IP, Splat2n, Fire Emblem, MK8D, Xenoblade, Mario and others, which all are supposed to be released this year, meant that Nintendo really wanted to patch up the mega-droughts experienced with the latest 2 home consoles. Those are all pretty much their biggest franchises, and you get all of them in a single year!

And to be frank, I've never wanted so many games in a single year, games coming from them on a steady stream throughout every quarter. It's quite an exceptional situation that never occured before both on Wii and Wii U. Hell, it may be one of their best summer window ever. It will never be as many as what the PS4 gets, but it's a big step-up in 1st party offering.

Hey don't forget, people like us don't matter, cause Japanese games aren't triple A lmao.



GuyDuke on 15 January 2017
rjason12 said:
guiduc said:
I pretty much assumed that showing off Zelda, a new IP, Splat2n, Fire Emblem, MK8D, Xenoblade, Mario and others, which all are supposed to be released this year, meant that Nintendo really wanted to patch up the mega-droughts experienced with the latest 2 home consoles. Those are all pretty much their biggest franchises, and you get all of them in a single year!

And to be frank, I've never wanted so many games in a single year, games coming from them on a steady stream throughout every quarter. It's quite an exceptional situation that never occured before both on Wii and Wii U. Hell, it may be one of their best summer window ever. It will never be as many as what the PS4 gets, but it's a big step-up in 1st party offering.

Hey don't forget, people like us don't matter, cause Japanese games aren't triple A lmao.

And still, they'll make the 90s and the money rain.