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Forums - Sales Discussion - November 2016 NPD Thread! Hardware estimates in the OP!

craighopkins said:
Even though we have to wait for jan for npd numbers. Looking at vgchartz weekly hardware numbers will give us a good indication if the rumor was a lie

I think the PS4 is currently at 600k. 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

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princevenom said:
dam looks like these numbers are true after all
i think this gen will end soon
and both sony and ms will officially announce ps5 and xbox 2 in 2018 imo

Anything I missed to this story? http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=223502&page=1#

KBG29 said:
princevenom said:
dam looks like these numbers are true after all
i think this gen will end soon
and both sony and ms will officially announce ps5 and xbox 2 in 2018 imo

That would be the end of consoles. PS5 in 2018 would not even be able to double the power of the Pro. It would be the smallest leap in console history. New consoles can't come until 2019 at the earliest. That is the soonest 7nm chips will be available in mas scale. Even at that though I don't think tech will be ready for a new gen PS or Xbox. It is better to brand new devices as enhanced versions of the curent platform until the time comes when a true generational leap can occur. 

The best thing Sony and Microsoft could do going forward is release one final PS4 and XBO revision with around 10 - 12TF GPU's, and 16GB of RAM in 2020 with 7nm. Then when 3nm chips arrive in 2023 or 2024 they can deliver consoles with ~25TF, 128GB of on HBM RAM, and large SSD's. This would offer a full generational leap, and truly be a next gen console.

Sigh so much wrong in this post.

1st of all. Even in the same 14nm node a PS5 in 3 years time will provide a generational leap, because GPUs themselves will evolve and make generational leaps. Vega 10 is 14nm like Polaris and rumored to already reach 12TFLOPZ next year. GTX600 and 900 series were both 28nm but the latter is so much more powerful.

2. If PS4 Pro with its 4.2TFLOPZ had its own exclusives, you would already start to see graphical leaps. It's 2.3x more powerful than a regular PS4, that is halfway between the PS3 and PS4.

3. 7nm is coming by 2019:

TSMC, Q1'16 briefing

"Let me give you first on N10 update. We have received N10 customer product tape-out in 1Q 2016. We are actively preparing for more customer product tape-outs in the following quarters. Most of our N10 [=10nm] users are for mobile products. We will put this technology in production in two of TSMC's 12-inch giga-fabs. Those tape-outs will drive a sizable demand starting from 2Q 2017 through 2018."

"We have expanded our N7 design ecosystem development to include both mobile and high-performance computing, to enable our customers to deliver their first-to-market products. Our N7 adoption is very strong, with customers ranging from mobile GPU, game console, FPGA, network processors and other consumer product applications. We have more than 20 customers in intensive design engagement with us and expect to have 15 customer tape-outs in 2017. The volume production of N7 will start from first half 2018."

"Our 7-nanometer technology development is well on track. Its 256-megabit SRAM yield improvement is ahead of our schedule. In addition, we believe our 7-nanometer PPA, that is power, performance and area density, with its schedule, is ahead of our competitors. This technology has been aggressively adopted, not only by mobile customers, but also by high-performance computing customers. They all have aggressive product tape-out plan in first half 2017, with volume production planned in early 2018."

 

As you see, it's expected 7nm high end GPUs will start arriving by mid 2018. That is 18 months before Sony will realistically launch the PS5 (holiday 2019).

What this means is that the PS5 will have the same technology of the $250-300 7nm card AMD is planning of at least mid 2018. PS5 is locked to be at minimum 10-12TFLOPZ. 5x faster than the PS4.

While that is enough juice for a next gen 4k experience, I'm hoping they choose something like 1600p-1800p and use as much power on the graphics as they can. They can release a PS5 Pro to render thoe extra 4-500p's later on.



Sorry, not buying any numbers from pro-MS site just cause they state "believe me." Didn't work on me with Trump, ain't working, now.



thismeintiel said:
Sorry, not buying any numbers from pro-MS site just cause they state "believe me." Didn't work on me with Trump, ain't working, now.

People were definitely right to doubt the numbers just because the people it came from. I think that the reasonable people in the Xbox camp didn't have much faith in them. 



aLkaLiNE said:
hudsoniscool said:

Ya Xbox had more bundle options for Black Friday. Battlefield, gears, and mincraft. But PS4 at all retailers either matched value or exceeded Microsoft. They offered uncharted, plus ratchet n clank plus a third game(can't remember what it was) for 249 at multiple retailers.

You're thinking of Sony Europe, which offered a 3 pack of uncharted, drive club, Bloodborne or uncharted, Driveclub, r&c.

 

The Black Friday bundle this year for US was a $250 slim with uncharted 4. And.... Well that was their bundle.

http://blog.us.playstation.com/2016/11/19/black-friday-weekend-deal-249-99-uncharted-4-ps4-bundle/

Actually best buy had a $260 ps4 with last of us and rachet and clank while walmart and gamrstop had a $250 ps4 with rachet and clank.



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I don't see it as a big deal even if the gap was only 100k. At the end of the day WW is what matters and the total number sold.



Can someone explain to me what are the odds of ps4 having it's best BF period in PlayStation history (is that official? How much would it be?) and yet sell "only" a million in the us?

I mean, would that mean the rest of the month it was dead or something? Some sales were moved to december npd totals?



KBG29 said:

 there is no way a PS5 in 2018, 2019, or 2020 will be anywhere near what we have seen in the past. 

50/50 i will say. PS4 launched in 2013, with - back in the days - really weak CPU, mid range GPU and quite good RAM for 399$ - if they did not create a PRO, i would say 2019 is absolute maximum for PS4 gen. But they have launched a PRO, so i dont know whats goin on already.

2013-2018 is 5 years, that is what in general console gen is. And that was where were consoles were WOW day1.Any PC gamer will kill u with laugh if u advice him these days

" choose Jaguar CPU laptop ".

Also, the whole concept of console is kinda different now , there are meant to be " good enough for mainstream John " not " top-of-the-edge ", 399$ is maximum price, no company wil take loss with every single unit sold etc. 3rd party is now a biggest factor for every console publisher, and they want simple architecture, low costs, etc. 

 

Yes, I can see PS5 with lets say 12- 16 GB GDDR5X, 6-7 TFLOPS RAM and this time really good CPU, market it as a true 4K 60 FPS HDR, add backwards comp ( same architecture ) at the end of 2019. 

So what is the other 50 ?

Still a stunning majority of TVs are 1080 and people dont want to buy 4ks, Sony and MS may want to repeat PS3360 scenario with artfically elongated generation, all this VR,HDR etc, also Sony maybe will want to harvest proftis as long as they can. 



Wow, last year's holiday sales really inflated people's expectations too high. The US market has been on a slight decline for years now, last year just happened to have a confluence of majorly anticipated games hit with both systems' first drop to that ever-important $299 price point. A drop to $249 just isn't as significant a factor, and combined with the sheer glut of shooters now flooding the market and the decline of certain important franchises (COD, for example) there just wasn't the same push as last year. These results, if true, were basically in line with my expectations. In fact, I expected the Xbox to perhaps pull ahead by a bit, just because of the sole Slim bundle being the Uncharted bundle, and find it ridiculous that people are somehow spinning this month as a "loss" for the ps4. Sony does not need the US in order to dominate worldwide, and yet it still finds itself in the pole position there with a bundle of their own game instead of having to pay EA for hundreds of thousands of copies of theirs. In no way is that a negative. 



MikeG85 said:
The dudes at WC are legit...if they say its 100% true then I'm pretty certain its true and to think some people were saying that playstation was going to sell 2m.

Not great for either company...but a million consoles sold is still a million consoles sold.

Do we think this gen has already peaked ? or could this years black Friday just be a blip? and they both bounce back next year?

and some people thought X1 would win, people get it wrong I guess

only 1m for MS in their only big market is terrible