Nintendo could not manufacture enough Wii's to get to 50 million by years end, and if they did, there would we so many in stock no one would want one anymore.
I was actually accounting for that in explaining to myself why the Wii is still understocked (sold out) in the US (Japan is flush, EU/Others is open to debate) yet not posting sell through rates in synch with production rates.
I don't know whether that forward shifted inventory amounts to 1 million, which seems high, but it should account for at least a portion of that gap.
What I don't think is realistic, is to expect 400k sales a week through Q3. Keeping in mind that there was a lag between the release of Brawl and the effect it had on hardware sales (a week late which was unusual), but it is still arguably the biggest soft release for 2008 for Nintendo. MK will not match its numbers. People will still argue that Wii Fit is going to sell to EVERYone but I'm not bullish about that. Not enough to see a change in the estimate of Nintendo's current share price due to undervaluation.
I believe Nintendo has a pretty fair grasp on how well they expect to see Wii Fit sell outside of Japan. Of course if it is impossible to find after the first month of release, that means they missed their estimate considerably. We'll see.
Personally, I'm starting to see it more as buying a peripheral bundled with a tech demo-like soft rather than the other way around. Buy it for the board, which will hopefully be used effectively in future titles that are real games.
| Username2324 said: Nintendo could not manufacture enough Wii's to get to 50 million by years end, and if they did, there would we so many in stock no one would want one anymore. |
what? u think 50 million is Saturation point??? PS2 did 45 million in america alone. 50 million is not even close to saturation point yet. If there were enough wiis, Wii sales would be arond 80 million right now. Believe it.
| Username2324 said: Nintendo could not manufacture enough Wii's to get to 50 million by years end, and if they did, there would we so many in stock no one would want one anymore. |
The most ignorant statement ive read on the internet.
Proud poster of the 10000th reply at the Official Smash Bros Update Thread.
tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."
Bets with Conegamer:
Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.
| Username2324 said: 80 million? Ha, I laugh at you. |
hahahah - I laugh at u
In fact, I was being conservative. Maybe 100 million+ then!!!!!!!!
| TWRoO said: ^production rate is not increased/decreased by each months demand, if they could do that then there would never be any supply shortages, so there is no way they would increase it now and decrease it later this year. Read my reply to you, as I said the minumum realistic expectation is 37.5 million, barring any Wii factory natural disaster anyway. |
I didn't say it was in/decreased monthly, all i said is they could and should increase production.
Just out of curiosity (for comparison sakes) do you know how many PS3's/360's are produced each month?
Sony's shipment forecast for PS3 is 9.5 million over 12 months, so just divide 9.5 million/12 months for an estimate of PS3s produced from April 2007 to March 2008.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
| PDF said: I think that the Wii wont reach over 100m life time or even 80m I think that buy 09 the sale trends will change like leo-j predicts but I predict they will happen later. In 09 both consoles could be cheaper than $250. I think once the PS3 and 360 reach that price they will see huge sale increase. Of course the Wii will drop its price at this point, so the Wii will continue to sell but not like it is now. end of 08. Wii at 40m End of 09 Wii at 55m end of 2010 it will be at 63m and by 2011 it will stop selling. I think Nintendo is kind of running out of its core AAA franchises. So I think by the end of this year they are not really going to have much left. A few they will anounce at e3 for end of 08 and early 09. |
Another Wii doomsday post. I'd recommend you not to use the crystal ball your using now, since its broken.
When I see signs of Wii stoping Ill make my judgments, we dont need bold and wishful predictions(or hopes).
Proud poster of the 10000th reply at the Official Smash Bros Update Thread.
tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."
Bets with Conegamer:
Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.
I said it to rol, and I was right. and now I'm saying it to you leo-j
your prediction will be found false before December even hits.
Help! I'm stuck in a forum signature!
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