I reckon Wii will be between 42-45 million ww by the end of year, hit 60-65 million in 2009 and end up over 90 million lifetime.

 Yet your prediction for the end of year sales was 32-36 million (except you typed 26 by accident)... which totally contradicts your belief that they should increase production now. If demand was only high enough to sell 36 million by the years end then there would have already been signs of slowing, not stock shortages atm, and Nintendo would be planning a production decrease right now.

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I think demand wise (at the current price point and with the currently released and announced games) they could sell 45-50 million by the end of the year if there was the right amount of stock. I am hoping the stock problems wll be sorted after this Christmas.... they are almost sorted as of now in Europe and Japan, although Europe will likely have some problems again in December (not to the scale of last year though).

 i got an other one

 crash was never a good franchise.

Very simply - the Wii is not even close to satisfying demand, let alone anything else. So - at the moment its completely dependent on production - which is a very predictable, and simple thing to follow.

The scary thing is titles that will REALLY expand the market are yet to hit - Mario Kart & WiiFit (let alone anything else).

Its a no-brainer than Wii sales will hit 40m+ this year - and maybe even 50m, if Ninty can get the production right. Denying this simply means you haven't considered the problem properly.

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=156

We have about 9 months left in the year - including the holidays. Which is more unlikely?

PS3 selling 8-12m (after selling 11m since launch)
Wii selling 6-10m (after selling 23m since launch)

Your worst prediction for the PS3 (from now) almost has it selling more units than the best prediction for the Wii. And even *you* know that's just not gonna happen...

Hey, the bet at the end of my sig is still open...

The "Wii is doomed" threads have existed since day one, often claiming the Wii's sales would disapear after it passed the Gamecube. All of these threads share the same underlying tone that people really want an XBox 360 or PS3 but are willing to tolerate a Wii because it is so much cheaper; for a small segment of the population this may be true, but in general it is incorrect.

If you look at the last generation and assume that there were 120 Million distinct console owners (factoring in multiple console owners, and people who had to replace consoles) then approximately 1/3 of these console owners represent the "Core" gamer demographic; this is the group of gamers who care about the "System Seller" games that are hyped, are willing to spend more than (about) $200 for a system, and are willing to buy more than one system. The remaining gamers represent many varied demographics who have differing motivations on why they buy a console but still share a couple of characteristics; on the whole they buy the most popular console (probably because it has the most games and because their friends own it), and they are unwilling to spend more than (about) $200 on a system.

Unless something dramatic changes in the market, the Wii will be the only system 2009 that is targeting the majority of gamers. If you look at organic growth in the industry (12.5%) as well as growth into new gamers (12.5%) the industry could grow to 150 Million distinct console owners, with 48 Million being the "core" gamer demographic, and 102 Million being the majority of console owners that will have very little reason to buy an XBox 360 or PS3 due to their smaller libraries, higher cost, and fewer friends who own these systems.

Dont know when the slowdown will start, but it should start. The promise the Wii made is largely unfullfilled. Here we are 1.5 years after release of the Wii and the best games for the Wii either barely use motion sensing controllers or they are simply gimmick add ons (Zelda, SSBB, SMG).

The last major game that was any good that made use of the motion sensing was MP3. The next major game for the Wii is Mario Kart and it has no need for motion sensing controls. Then you have WiiFit which adds another gimmick to the Wii. One gimmick wasnt enough. Just goes to why I cant stand the Wii. The WiiMote like the balance board should just have been a add on controller.

 So d-pad was a gimmick?  What about shoulder buttons?  I bet you think analog sticks were gimmicks too.  Also rumble.

Memory cards  muct have been gimmicks to you.  I bet so are hard drives.  O, I know...online gaming.  That must be the biggest gimmick of all right now, huh?

Why are you assertively debasing an effective means of gameplay enhancement?    

Because none of those came from Sony (Well, almost none) ...

I start to believe that some people really see the Sony strategy as the best one... more and more expensive...