I was actually accounting for that in explaining to myself why the Wii is still understocked (sold out) in the US (Japan is flush, EU/Others is open to debate) yet not posting sell through rates in synch with production rates.
I don't know whether that forward shifted inventory amounts to 1 million, which seems high, but it should account for at least a portion of that gap.
What I don't think is realistic, is to expect 400k sales a week through Q3. Keeping in mind that there was a lag between the release of Brawl and the effect it had on hardware sales (a week late which was unusual), but it is still arguably the biggest soft release for 2008 for Nintendo. MK will not match its numbers. People will still argue that Wii Fit is going to sell to EVERYone but I'm not bullish about that. Not enough to see a change in the estimate of Nintendo's current share price due to undervaluation.
I believe Nintendo has a pretty fair grasp on how well they expect to see Wii Fit sell outside of Japan. Of course if it is impossible to find after the first month of release, that means they missed their estimate considerably. We'll see.
Personally, I'm starting to see it more as buying a peripheral bundled with a tech demo-like soft rather than the other way around. Buy it for the board, which will hopefully be used effectively in future titles that are real games.
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