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Forums - Nintendo - Opinion: As earlier NX releases, as bigger are the chances it wont be what your waiting for.

Soundwave on 11 January 2016

I think what's false about this POV is assuming Nintendo has a choice here ... they don't have a choice really which kind of makes it an easy decision.

Nintendo does not have the capability to support a high end portable and even a Wii U level console with distinct software libraries.

The 3DS successor will take graphics at least to Vita++ level but probably more like closer to PS3/360/Wii U ... in which case, Nintendo really has no choice but to unify their portable/console lines. They cannot support what is effectively two high-resources consoles (basically) at once. 

So the truth is Wii U was always going to be a goner by the time the 3DS successor had to launch as the 3DS successor will force Nintendo into unifying their console line with their portable line (hello NX). Unification is the only way they can continue to have a portable and console at the same time going forward.

And 3DS successor is due soon, 3DS will turn 5 years old in just a couple of weeks from today, and it's done nothing to warrant a 6+ year life cycle like the original DS got (that sold a whopping 150 million so it was warranted, 3DS may not even sell half that).

Once Nintendo upgrades from 3DS to the next-gen portable, Nintendo will be forever changed.



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AZWification on 11 January 2016

Release date is irrelevant because I doubt Nintendo cares about competing with Sony and MS.



                
       ---Member of the official Squeezol Fanclub---

Soundwave on 11 January 2016

 

 

If the base NX can hook up to the "supplemental computing device" like Nintendo patented that could solve the "yeah but how does it compete against PS5/XB2 doood!" problem. Not everyone is going to need that level of graphics anyway (not everyone will even have a 4K TV).

 



AZWification on 11 January 2016
CaptainExplosion said:
AZWification said:

Release date is irrelevant because I doubt Nintendo cares about competing with Sony and MS.

Well they NEED TO CARE so that they don't end up in a landfill like Atari did.

Thing is that the NX won't magically become a successful console only by being on par with PS4. It kinda needs a gimmick to stand out, since most 3rd party games don't sell as well on Nintendo systems as they do on Sony/MS systems. There are exceptions, of course, like Sonic and Rayman.





                
       ---Member of the official Squeezol Fanclub---

COKTOE on 11 January 2016
Guitarguy said:
They can't win by launching within the Xbox 1 and especially PS4's lifetime. By the time the "NX" comes out there wll be well over 50 million PS4's around the world and something like 25 million Xbox 1s, so essentially Nintendo would be going up against a combined userbase of close to 80 million and growing. Even if they do manage to get COD/Assassin's Creed/Destiny/FIFA/Battlefield etc, the userbase/online community will be tiny compared to PS4/X1. In contrast, the later they launch, the closer the PS5/Xbox 2 launches will be. Dreamcast suffered from this with the PS2's looming launch causing doubt in potential buyers. Catch 22.

Unless they happen to hit it big with some gimmick, they aren't going to get big sales in my honest opinion. Dropping support for the Wii U will burn alot of their existing fans also. It's looking bleak.

 


Agree with this post. Pretty much how I see things. It will get worse before it gets better, but I feel Nintendo needs to launch alongside the next Sony and MS consoles to have any hope of real success with the "NX". Launching at any time before than happens will be terrible, and go a long way to ensuring failure. When you're a distant 3rd, you don't dictate the pace, you try to match it.



- "If you have the heart of a true winner, you can always get more pissed off than some other asshole."

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Soundwave on 11 January 2016
CaptainExplosion said:
Soundwave said:

 

 

If the base NX can hook up to the "supplemental computing device" like Nintendo patented that could solve the "yeah but how does it compete against PS5/XB2 doood!" problem. Not everyone is going to need that level of graphics anyway (not everyone will even have a 4K TV).

 

The top-selling "games" of today need that though; Gore-Tits-Anarchy, Call of Doody, ASSassin's Creed come to mind. Those games wouldn't sell as well as they have been were it not for outrageous graphical overhalls between generations (The newest Assassin's Creed is a visual improvement over the last ones, right?).

 

Then buy the supplemental add-on if you want higher end graphics. 

To be honest console owners are still treated like 10-year-olds who rely on their mom to buy them all their video games ... it isn't 1992 anymore, the market had grown up and is largely adults. Let us have the option of upgrading when we feel like. 

Fundamentally I hope NX starts breaking a lot of these hardware "rules". Many of them are stupid and grossly outdated. I think NX should just do away with the entire "hardware generation" concept, why should Nintendo adhere to it when it doesn't benefit them at all? 

NX should update everything couple of years with new hardware refreshes. If you have an older model you should have an quick/easy upgrade easy option (ie: supplemental computing device). NX is an ecosystem that's bigger than any one or two pieces of hardware, its like Steam. Nintendo's goal should simply be to get people IN to the NX ecosystem with any type of hardware model, just like Apple does with iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch .... doesn't matter if you buy the cheap $199 iPod Touch or all the way up to a $1500 iPad Pro ... you are in the iOS ecosystem and now Apple can make more money from you. 



bdbdbd on 11 January 2016
teigaga said:

 

lol, what? I think some of you live in a world where either something is a 100m record breaking success story or its biggest flop of all time. A traditional system for an established brand like Nintendo is the definition of safe. It'll comfortably grow they're audience beyond what the Wii U achieved but isn't garunteed to be a runaway success.

1. "No one will provide support out of goodwill". The reality of console launches is that the key publishers almost always lend their hand because its smart business, this is why COD, Assassins Creed etc were on Wii U at launch. This is why the unproven Wii was supported by Ubisoft, EA and Activision from day one. If a system has the potential to succeed the big publishers will contribute some support. If the NX mirrors PS4 in architecture whilst being notably more powerful, then it fits into most developers/pulishers and gamers pipeline and vision for the future (unlike the Wii U/Wii). For developers, even if they predict PS5 will enter the market in 2019 and dominate, the NX represents and expansion of that auidence and that future. An intelligent guess is that many devs will support the NX, especially the japanese if was release in 2017 with intention competing with the PS5 as its fairly weaker (but still a "generation" ahead of the PS4) rival.

Beyond that, developers really and truly care about specs. If they can take a game that is struggling to run at 1080p 30fps on PS4 and can easily get the same title running at 60fps and with all the bells whilstles on a brand new platform with hungry early adopters, you can bet they'd be paying attention to that new platform. The Wii U was dead on arrival, not built for the future yet not really alighed to the previous gen either with its weak CPU and campy marketing and branding. If Nintendo themselves provide a strong launch line up, and gear the system towards the core you have a system that is garunteed to surpass the Wii U in sales and third party support. I think many of you forget how the poorly the Wii U was conceieved and branded... Core third party titles were never going to succeed on this. 


2. "Nintendo hasn't really had a say in this market for at least two decades" and yet the Gamecube made more profit then the PS3 and 360, lets look a success in meaningful terms. If Nintendo can profit, restore their image and build an audience above 20m they're on the right track. Their 1st party franchises continue to be the most in demand in the industry. Believe it or not there are tons of people who prefer Nintendo's exclusive offerings over Sonys/Microsofts (I'm one of them, yet I don't own a Wii U and never wanted to one). The games which semented the PS2 era (FInal Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Tekken, GTA) are no longer excluisve to sonys platforms and have largely been replaced with huge multiplatform annualised releases for which the PS4/X1 owe their success. Development across game platforms is now the most unified its ever been (unlike the hugely distinct PS2/Gamecube/Xbox trio) so Nintendo are in a good position to renter the market. For as long as there isn't another PS2 on the market (A dominating system arriving hot on the heels of its successful predeccessor, a year ahead of its competitors with a monopoly on all major third party titles) then I really don't see the huge "ridiculous" risk of Nintendo going the traditional route.

It doesn't mean selling at a big loss (the PS4 didn't at launch), it doesn't require that Nintendo "win" the generation, it doesn't require Nintendo pour tons of resources and marketing into an entirely unproven gimmick. It simply means Nintendo operate within a space where there is a known 150m+ audience, within the appeal of the gaming mass mass media, and where there is clear visible room for them to grow as a competitor. As opposed to getting lost like they have with the Wii U, in charge of gimmick no one cares for and with no realistic means to grow their audience. 

3) If they have a powerful USP hiding under their sleaves, thats going attract Wii numbers and introduce a whole new pillar of games then thats of course preferable but as far as we're aware, they don't. In which case they either release a cheap box and sell themselves as a "me too!"  3 years down the road (Something thats never been known to work). Or they introduce themselves as future sent system, a generation ahead of what you've had a home for the past few years, the cornerstone of every successful home console minus the Wii.

 


Wait - your "safe strategy" is excactly where Nintendo have been failing for the last two decades. The safe strategy is excactly what they did with Wii U. As NX is Nintendo's future strategy, only runaway success will do. Considering it's supposed to replace the DS line of produts as well as home consoles, it needs to top 150 million in "traditional generational cycle", otherwise it's hard to see it as a success.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

bdbdbd on 11 January 2016
Soundwave said:
CaptainExplosion said:
Soundwave said:

 

 

If the base NX can hook up to the "supplemental computing device" like Nintendo patented that could solve the "yeah but how does it compete against PS5/XB2 doood!" problem. Not everyone is going to need that level of graphics anyway (not everyone will even have a 4K TV).

 

The top-selling "games" of today need that though; Gore-Tits-Anarchy, Call of Doody, ASSassin's Creed come to mind. Those games wouldn't sell as well as they have been were it not for outrageous graphical overhalls between generations (The newest Assassin's Creed is a visual improvement over the last ones, right?).

 

Then buy the supplemental add-on if you want higher end graphics. 

To be honest console owners are still treated like 10-year-olds who rely on their mom to buy them all their video games ... it isn't 1992 anymore, the market had grown up and is largely adults. Let us have the option of upgrading when we feel like. 

Fundamentally I hope NX starts breaking a lot of these hardware "rules". Many of them are stupid and grossly outdated. I think NX should just do away with the entire "hardware generation" concept, why should Nintendo adhere to it when it doesn't benefit them at all? 

NX should update everything couple of years with new hardware refreshes. If you have an older model you should have an quick/easy upgrade easy option (ie: supplemental computing device). NX is an ecosystem that's bigger than any one or two pieces of hardware, its like Steam. Nintendo's goal should simply be to get people IN to the NX ecosystem with any type of hardware model, just like Apple does with iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch .... doesn't matter if you buy the cheap $199 iPod Touch or all the way up to a $1500 iPad Pro ... you are in the iOS ecosystem and now Apple can make more money from you. 

 

Just to point out that it was already in the 1980's that the market was "males, 18 to 35", so nothing new here. What you're right about is, that it was the kids of the 80's (and 90's) that were playing videogames consoles, whereas computer gamers tended to be people that already were adults.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

Darwinianevolution on 11 January 2016
bdbdbd said:
teigaga said:

 

lol, what? I think some of you live in a world where either something is a 100m record breaking success story or its biggest flop of all time. A traditional system for an established brand like Nintendo is the definition of safe. It'll comfortably grow they're audience beyond what the Wii U achieved but isn't garunteed to be a runaway success.

1. "No one will provide support out of goodwill". The reality of console launches is that the key publishers almost always lend their hand because its smart business, this is why COD, Assassins Creed etc were on Wii U at launch. This is why the unproven Wii was supported by Ubisoft, EA and Activision from day one. If a system has the potential to succeed the big publishers will contribute some support. If the NX mirrors PS4 in architecture whilst being notably more powerful, then it fits into most developers/pulishers and gamers pipeline and vision for the future (unlike the Wii U/Wii). For developers, even if they predict PS5 will enter the market in 2019 and dominate, the NX represents and expansion of that auidence and that future. An intelligent guess is that many devs will support the NX, especially the japanese if was release in 2017 with intention competing with the PS5 as its fairly weaker (but still a "generation" ahead of the PS4) rival.

Beyond that, developers really and truly care about specs. If they can take a game that is struggling to run at 1080p 30fps on PS4 and can easily get the same title running at 60fps and with all the bells whilstles on a brand new platform with hungry early adopters, you can bet they'd be paying attention to that new platform. The Wii U was dead on arrival, not built for the future yet not really alighed to the previous gen either with its weak CPU and campy marketing and branding. If Nintendo themselves provide a strong launch line up, and gear the system towards the core you have a system that is garunteed to surpass the Wii U in sales and third party support. I think many of you forget how the poorly the Wii U was conceieved and branded... Core third party titles were never going to succeed on this. 


2. "Nintendo hasn't really had a say in this market for at least two decades" and yet the Gamecube made more profit then the PS3 and 360, lets look a success in meaningful terms. If Nintendo can profit, restore their image and build an audience above 20m they're on the right track. Their 1st party franchises continue to be the most in demand in the industry. Believe it or not there are tons of people who prefer Nintendo's exclusive offerings over Sonys/Microsofts (I'm one of them, yet I don't own a Wii U and never wanted to one). The games which semented the PS2 era (FInal Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Tekken, GTA) are no longer excluisve to sonys platforms and have largely been replaced with huge multiplatform annualised releases for which the PS4/X1 owe their success. Development across game platforms is now the most unified its ever been (unlike the hugely distinct PS2/Gamecube/Xbox trio) so Nintendo are in a good position to renter the market. For as long as there isn't another PS2 on the market (A dominating system arriving hot on the heels of its successful predeccessor, a year ahead of its competitors with a monopoly on all major third party titles) then I really don't see the huge "ridiculous" risk of Nintendo going the traditional route.

It doesn't mean selling at a big loss (the PS4 didn't at launch), it doesn't require that Nintendo "win" the generation, it doesn't require Nintendo pour tons of resources and marketing into an entirely unproven gimmick. It simply means Nintendo operate within a space where there is a known 150m+ audience, within the appeal of the gaming mass mass media, and where there is clear visible room for them to grow as a competitor. As opposed to getting lost like they have with the Wii U, in charge of gimmick no one cares for and with no realistic means to grow their audience. 

3) If they have a powerful USP hiding under their sleaves, thats going attract Wii numbers and introduce a whole new pillar of games then thats of course preferable but as far as we're aware, they don't. In which case they either release a cheap box and sell themselves as a "me too!"  3 years down the road (Something thats never been known to work). Or they introduce themselves as future sent system, a generation ahead of what you've had a home for the past few years, the cornerstone of every successful home console minus the Wii.

 


Wait - your "safe strategy" is excactly where Nintendo have been failing for the last two decades. The safe strategy is excactly what they did with Wii U. As NX is Nintendo's future strategy, only runaway success will do. Considering it's supposed to replace the DS line of produts as well as home consoles, it needs to top 150 million in "traditional generational cycle", otherwise it's hard to see it as a success.

I'm sure that keeping the attach ratios strong is more important for Nintendo that creating a +250m userbase again. Even if the NX sells just 60m with HH and HC combined and lasts until the PS6 gets released (so at least a lifecycle similar to GameBoy+GBC), if the attach rates are as good as they are with an unified architecture and enough power to work well on their projects and attract a couple of good multiplats, they would be set. Profits matter a lot more than userbase, just look at the GC-PS2-XBox days.





You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

Soundwave on 11 January 2016
bdbdbd said:
Soundwave said:

 

Then buy the supplemental add-on if you want higher end graphics. 

To be honest console owners are still treated like 10-year-olds who rely on their mom to buy them all their video games ... it isn't 1992 anymore, the market had grown up and is largely adults. Let us have the option of upgrading when we feel like. 

Fundamentally I hope NX starts breaking a lot of these hardware "rules". Many of them are stupid and grossly outdated. I think NX should just do away with the entire "hardware generation" concept, why should Nintendo adhere to it when it doesn't benefit them at all? 

NX should update everything couple of years with new hardware refreshes. If you have an older model you should have an quick/easy upgrade easy option (ie: supplemental computing device). NX is an ecosystem that's bigger than any one or two pieces of hardware, its like Steam. Nintendo's goal should simply be to get people IN to the NX ecosystem with any type of hardware model, just like Apple does with iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch .... doesn't matter if you buy the cheap $199 iPod Touch or all the way up to a $1500 iPad Pro ... you are in the iOS ecosystem and now Apple can make more money from you. 

 

Just to point out that it was already in the 1980's that the market was "males, 18 to 35", so nothing new here. What you're right about is, that it was the kids of the 80's (and 90's) that were playing videogames consoles, whereas computer gamers tended to be people that already were adults.

In the 80s (and early 90s) the market really was little boys more or less. The NES was even initially distributed by Mattel, the toy maker and video games were always in the toys section just a stone's throw away from He-Man and Barbie. 

That why "hardware upgrades" were such a big deal back then, I remember when the SNES launched (yes I am that old, lol), me and my brother had to beg *beg* our parents to buy us one for like 8 months straight and we only got it as a birthday gift. We were at the mercy of our parents deciding to buy us "new hardware". 

That's the reality of the market back then for most people. You had to rely on mommy/daddy to buy all new consoles and it was up to them. 

Now that I'm a grown ass man, I don't need to be babied like this anymore though. I, like most gamers, buy my own hardware and games with my own disposable income when ever I want. 

As such, the whole "5-6 year hardware cycle" to a degree has become outdated IMO, and I hope NX breaks it. We're also in the age of the internet and cloud accounts, evolving platforms like iOS, Android, and STEAM are as mainstream as it gets, NX should be more like that with more hardware models and the ability to upgrade older ones more often. 

As I said, I don't need to be treated like I'm 10 years old anymore, if I can upgrade my phone or tablet or STEAM-library PC, I think the time has come in 20-freaking 16 that we have a rethink of what a gaming platform can be. This also solves the problem of how to compete against the PS5/XB2 but still be able to launch ahead of them.