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Forums - Movies & TV - Star Wars :TFA - Avatar gap thread- Updated Daily! Post your predictions! - $2,064,018,389 as of 11th April 2016! - The GAP is in the OP

 

Can TFA make it to a Billion domestically?

Yes, explain below 35 31.53%
 
Maybe, but just barely 30 27.03%
 
No 38 34.23%
 
other post below 0 0%
 
see results 8 7.21%
 
Total:111
Wonktonodi on 19 January 2016
Miguel_Zorro said:
Wonktonodi said:
Miguel_Zorro said:
spurgeonryan said:

 



Oh, I thought that was today's update. @ thread 6 million the rest of this week each day. 18 million weekend, 4 million a day next week, 12 million weekend, and on and on. Easily 100-150 more million domestically. Could get very close to 1 billion.

I still don't think it will get close to a billion.  I had it landing between 930 and 950, and it's trending exactly where I had at Day 31 (850) to get to that prediction.  A month from now it will be around 910.  It will do a few billion a week after that.

I think you've made the best typo in a long time :P

good job with you're prediction of 850 for day 31, however I still think you are estimating a bit low. though glad to see your estimation mostly above your 10%  you'd mentioned before. The closer it gets to a billion the more likely Disney will push it to make sure it makes it.

Your estimate for around 910 in a month has it doing less than 2 million better than the avengers in it's 2nd month (day 32 to 62) 57.7 million vs 56 million but then doing 5 to 25 million better over the rest of the run, while with 3 exception TFA has being preforming better every day.

I'm still saying it will do about 10% more after day 31, the same as before.  850 million + 10% = 935 million.

 

Your range does go up to 950. 935-950 or 75% of your range is larger than the 10% while only 930-935 is below.
Which is why I said I'm glad to see it's mostly above. 



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Chris Hu on 20 January 2016

Surprisingly it won Monday's domestic box office. It also has its second foreign market where it crossed over $100 million in Germany, next should be China in a couple of days.



Soundwave on 20 January 2016
ArchangelMadzz said:
There are only so many nerds and kids that want to see the movie. A movie like avatar transcended genre and age appeal which is why it won't be caught. Some people hear 'star war's and don't want to touch it and the fact it's episode 7 means if they do they feel they won't know anything. Avatar was a pretty new IP.

Star Wars appeals to wide demographics, always has. Star Trek is more for "nerds" if you want to put it that way and you can see its box office has always been waaaaay below Star Wars. 

Like I said with the currency situation as it was in 2009/10, The Force Awakens is more like at $2.2-$2.3 billion ... not quite at Avatar, but that gap shrinks considerably.

And yes this is the SEVENTH Star Wars movie and yet it's doing this kind of business. You think anyone would give a rats ass about Avatar 7 when the franchise is 40 years old? I doubt it. 



ArchangelMadzz on 20 January 2016
Soundwave said:
ArchangelMadzz said:
There are only so many nerds and kids that want to see the movie. A movie like avatar transcended genre and age appeal which is why it won't be caught. Some people hear 'star war's and don't want to touch it and the fact it's episode 7 means if they do they feel they won't know anything. Avatar was a pretty new IP.

Star Wars appeals to wide demographics, always has. Star Trek is more for "nerds" if you want to put it that way and you can see its box office has always been waaaaay below Star Wars. 

Like I said with the currency situation as it was in 2009/10, The Force Awakens is more like at $2.2-$2.3 billion ... not quite at Avatar, but that gap shrinks considerably.

And yes this is the SEVENTH Star Wars movie and yet it's doing this kind of business. You think anyone would give a rats ass about Avatar 7 when the franchise is 40 years old? I doubt it. 

 

Probably not, good thing that has nothing to do with the conversation.

It has a wider appeal than Star Trek, box office numbers prove that. But as I said there are lots of people that see 'Star wars' and don't want to go near it, OR people that want to get into it but feel they'd be lost with it being episode 7.



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Soundwave on 21 January 2016
ArchangelMadzz said:
Soundwave said:
ArchangelMadzz said:
There are only so many nerds and kids that want to see the movie. A movie like avatar transcended genre and age appeal which is why it won't be caught. Some people hear 'star war's and don't want to touch it and the fact it's episode 7 means if they do they feel they won't know anything. Avatar was a pretty new IP.

Star Wars appeals to wide demographics, always has. Star Trek is more for "nerds" if you want to put it that way and you can see its box office has always been waaaaay below Star Wars. 

Like I said with the currency situation as it was in 2009/10, The Force Awakens is more like at $2.2-$2.3 billion ... not quite at Avatar, but that gap shrinks considerably.

And yes this is the SEVENTH Star Wars movie and yet it's doing this kind of business. You think anyone would give a rats ass about Avatar 7 when the franchise is 40 years old? I doubt it. 

 

Probably not, good thing that has nothing to do with the conversation.

It has a wider appeal than Star Trek, box office numbers prove that. But as I said there are lots of people that see 'Star wars' and don't want to go near it, OR people that want to get into it but feel they'd be lost with it being episode 7.

 

I think you're underselling Star Wars, you don't get massive box office like this without tremendously wide appeal. 

When I saw it again a couple of weeks ago in the afternoon, there were like 6 or 7 senior couples watching it. There were kids. There was a 40 something woman in front of me with her elderly mother. It's not just one demographic. 

Star Wars is really more fairy tale/epic myth than it is science fiction, that's why it appeals very broadly across the board. 



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ArchangelMadzz on 22 January 2016
Soundwave said:
ArchangelMadzz said:

 

Probably not, good thing that has nothing to do with the conversation.

It has a wider appeal than Star Trek, box office numbers prove that. But as I said there are lots of people that see 'Star wars' and don't want to go near it, OR people that want to get into it but feel they'd be lost with it being episode 7.

 

I think you're underselling Star Wars, you don't get massive box office like this without tremendously wide appeal. 

When I saw it again a couple of weeks ago in the afternoon, there were like 6 or 7 senior couples watching it. There were kids. There was a 40 something woman in front of me with her elderly mother. It's not just one demographic. 

Star Wars is really more fairy tale/epic myth than it is science fiction, that's why it appeals very broadly across the board. 

 

I didn't say it was just one demographic. I'm saying it doesn't have the wide enough appeal to beat or match avatar because of what I said earlier.



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2 Hairstyles for female characters: Long and 'Political Agenda'
2 Sexualities: Straight and 'Political Agenda'

Soundwave on 22 January 2016
ArchangelMadzz said:
Soundwave said:

 

I think you're underselling Star Wars, you don't get massive box office like this without tremendously wide appeal. 

When I saw it again a couple of weeks ago in the afternoon, there were like 6 or 7 senior couples watching it. There were kids. There was a 40 something woman in front of me with her elderly mother. It's not just one demographic. 

Star Wars is really more fairy tale/epic myth than it is science fiction, that's why it appeals very broadly across the board. 

 

I didn't say it was just one demographic. I'm saying it doesn't have the wide enough appeal to beat or match avatar because of what I said earlier.

 

Avatar had the 3D gimmick going for it which was "new" at the time, that propelled its box office higher, remove that and make the currency situations equal and I think Avatar would fall to Force Awakens. 



Lawlight on 23 January 2016

We know the dream of TFA passing Avatar was dead before the movie was released (though some hoped) but now it seems that even the dream of passing Titanic seems far away.



Lawlight on 23 January 2016
Soundwave said:
ArchangelMadzz said:

 

I didn't say it was just one demographic. I'm saying it doesn't have the wide enough appeal to beat or match avatar because of what I said earlier.

 

Avatar had the 3D gimmick going for it which was "new" at the time, that propelled its box office higher, remove that and make the currency situations equal and I think Avatar would fall to Force Awakens. 

 

Remove the inflation and the China growth and the result will favour Avatar even further. Marketing took TFA a long way but it can't be a generic blockbuster and expect to be a phenomenon at the boxoffice.





brute on 23 January 2016

The major winter storm is affecting everything, the drops aren't surprising, NFL will have an impact as well.



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