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Forums - Movies & TV - Star Wars :TFA - Avatar gap thread- Updated Daily! Post your predictions! - $2,064,018,389 as of 11th April 2016! - The GAP is in the OP

 

Can TFA make it to a Billion domestically?

Yes, explain below 35 31.53%
 
Maybe, but just barely 30 27.03%
 
No 38 34.23%
 
other post below 0 0%
 
see results 8 7.21%
 
Total:111

I've read that currency issues are really not favorable for TFA.

If it had the same currency situation Avatar had in 2009/2010, I've read The Force Awakens would be equivalent to $2.2 billion in box office thus far (and counting).

That would've put it above Titanic already and while probably still not catching Avatar, that gap suddenly isn't so big as TFA probably still has another $200-$300 million in the tank WW.



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Shadow1980 said:

If you count only Avatar's original theatrical run and ignore the re-release, then The Force Awakens has passed Avatar's inflation-adjusted gross. It will pass Avatar altogether after this weekend, making it the third-biggest movie released since 1980.

This is far from being true. Avatar already made 2.7 billion by the time the re-release (August 2010) happened.There's no point in bringing it up as if Avatar would be behind Star Wars had the re-release not happened. Technically it's not even a re-release, it's more of an extension. 





This movie is not touching Avatar worldwide. It's slowing down and will top off at about 920 domestic. The rest of the world doesn't have Star Wars fanboys like the US does, so it's about done international wise. 2.1 is about as high as it goes. Star Wars fans should be happy with that as this movie is overrated as it is and doesn't deserve the acclaim or box office run it got. Napoleon Dynamite..... I mean Kylo Ren ruined this film for me. Not to mention SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS Rey defeating Ren with no training. No matter how you excuse it , that makes a joke of good, evil power struggles.



Sagemode87 said:
This movie is not touching Avatar worldwide. It's slowing down and will top off at about 920 domestic. The rest of the world doesn't have Star Wars fanboys like the US does, so it's about done international wise. 2.1 is about as high as it goes. Star Wars fans should be happy with that as this movie is overrated as it is and doesn't deserve the acclaim or box office run it got. Napoleon Dynamite..... I mean Kylo Ren ruined this film for me. Not to mention SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS Rey defeating Ren with no training. No matter how you excuse it , that makes a joke of good, evil power struggles.

 

TFA is being hurt by a worse currency climate, it should be $200-$300 million higher if it had the same currency situation Avatar had in 2009/10. 

Avatar would still be no.1, but the gap closes significantly and future Star Wars movies now have room to grow internationally thanks to the foundation laid by TFA. 

No TFA is not perfect, but it's a solid, fun popcorn film, unlike the prequel movies which were just fundamental train wrecks (not a single really relatable human character in three entire movies is a massive, massive problem). 

There are some issues with TFA, but some of them are intentional. IE: I believe we will find out why Rey has latent Jedi abilities (she clearly does) in VIII, Kylo Ren will more "bad ass" in VIII after getting his face messed up, and we'll have more planets and all that for people who a giant stick up their butt about that. These are easy issues the next two can expand upon, the prequels had more fundamental problems that simply did not work at all. George Lucas had cleary lost his ability to write any type of believable human dialogue or to direct actors, and that did not really change much in all the prequels. 

It's not like Avatar is anything sepcial either outside of special effects. I'd probably rank it as Cameron's worst film below The Abyss and way below Aliens and Terminator 2, even well below Titanic and True Lies. 



Glad to see the revenant doing well. It's a very good movie



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Soundwave said:
Sagemode87 said:
This movie is not touching Avatar worldwide. It's slowing down and will top off at about 920 domestic. The rest of the world doesn't have Star Wars fanboys like the US does, so it's about done international wise. 2.1 is about as high as it goes. Star Wars fans should be happy with that as this movie is overrated as it is and doesn't deserve the acclaim or box office run it got. Napoleon Dynamite..... I mean Kylo Ren ruined this film for me. Not to mention SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS Rey defeating Ren with no training. No matter how you excuse it , that makes a joke of good, evil power struggles.

 

TFA is being hurt by a worse currency climate, it should be $200-$300 million higher if it had the same currency situation Avatar had in 2009/10. 

Avatar would still be no.1, but the gap closes significantly and future Star Wars movies now have room to grow internationally thanks to the foundation laid by TFA. 

No TFA is not perfect, but it's a solid, fun popcorn film, unlike the prequel movies which were just fundamental train wrecks (not a single really relatable human character in three entire movies is a massive, massive problem). 

There are some issues with TFA, but some of them are intentional. IE: I believe we will find out why Rey has latent Jedi abilities (she clearly does) in VIII, Kylo Ren will more "bad ass" in VIII after getting his face messed up, and we'll have more planets and all that for people who a giant stick up their butt about that. These are easy issues the next two can expand upon, the prequels had more fundamental problems that simply did not work at all. George Lucas had cleary lost his ability to write any type of believable human dialogue or to direct actors, and that did not really change much in all the prequels. 

It's not like Avatar is anything sepcial either outside of special effects. I'd probably rank it as Cameron's worst film below The Abyss and way below Aliens and Terminator 2, even well below Titanic and True Lies. 

 

I hope that's the case for Kylo Ren. The moment he unmasked, I just couldn't take him seriously. The mystery/aura  the first half of the movie built up for him was just gone imo. But I'll hold out for Episode 8 being a better film. 

I respect your opinion, but I actually loved Avatar, probably my favorite film from Cameron outside of Terminator. It had everything, wonderment, action, love, drama, what more could one want lol. 



Soundwave said:
Sagemode87 said:
This movie is not touching Avatar worldwide. It's slowing down and will top off at about 920 domestic. The rest of the world doesn't have Star Wars fanboys like the US does, so it's about done international wise. 2.1 is about as high as it goes. Star Wars fans should be happy with that as this movie is overrated as it is and doesn't deserve the acclaim or box office run it got. Napoleon Dynamite..... I mean Kylo Ren ruined this film for me. Not to mention SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS Rey defeating Ren with no training. No matter how you excuse it , that makes a joke of good, evil power struggles.

 

TFA is being hurt by a worse currency climate, it should be $200-$300 million higher if it had the same currency situation Avatar had in 2009/10. 

Avatar would still be no.1, but the gap closes significantly and future Star Wars movies now have room to grow internationally thanks to the foundation laid by TFA. 

No TFA is not perfect, but it's a solid, fun popcorn film, unlike the prequel movies which were just fundamental train wrecks (not a single really relatable human character in three entire movies is a massive, massive problem). 

There are some issues with TFA, but some of them are intentional. IE: I believe we will find out why Rey has latent Jedi abilities (she clearly does) in VIII, Kylo Ren will more "bad ass" in VIII after getting his face messed up, and we'll have more planets and all that for people who a giant stick up their butt about that. These are easy issues the next two can expand upon, the prequels had more fundamental problems that simply did not work at all. George Lucas had cleary lost his ability to write any type of believable human dialogue or to direct actors, and that did not really change much in all the prequels. 

It's not like Avatar is anything sepcial either outside of special effects. I'd probably rank it as Cameron's worst film below The Abyss and way below Aliens and Terminator 2, even well below Titanic and True Lies. 

 

There was a recession when avatar released in 2009. I think this would have a far bigger effect.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

barneystinson69 said:
Soundwave said:

 

TFA is being hurt by a worse currency climate, it should be $200-$300 million higher if it had the same currency situation Avatar had in 2009/10. 

Avatar would still be no.1, but the gap closes significantly and future Star Wars movies now have room to grow internationally thanks to the foundation laid by TFA. 

No TFA is not perfect, but it's a solid, fun popcorn film, unlike the prequel movies which were just fundamental train wrecks (not a single really relatable human character in three entire movies is a massive, massive problem). 

There are some issues with TFA, but some of them are intentional. IE: I believe we will find out why Rey has latent Jedi abilities (she clearly does) in VIII, Kylo Ren will more "bad ass" in VIII after getting his face messed up, and we'll have more planets and all that for people who a giant stick up their butt about that. These are easy issues the next two can expand upon, the prequels had more fundamental problems that simply did not work at all. George Lucas had cleary lost his ability to write any type of believable human dialogue or to direct actors, and that did not really change much in all the prequels. 

It's not like Avatar is anything sepcial either outside of special effects. I'd probably rank it as Cameron's worst film below The Abyss and way below Aliens and Terminator 2, even well below Titanic and True Lies. 

 

There was a recession when avatar released in 2009. I think this would have a far bigger effect.

 

Actually, oddly enough, the theater business thrives during recessions historically. 

When mom/dad have to break it to the kids that they can't take them on that vacation/Disneyland trip like they promised, a trip to the movie theater can soften the blow and is a hell of a lot cheaper.

Also when times are depressing, getting out of the house and escaping reality for a couple of hours is nice, and movies offer a cheaper way of doing that than going to a football/baseball/basketball/hockey game or a concert. 



There are only so many nerds and kids that want to see the movie. A movie like avatar transcended genre and age appeal which is why it won't be caught. Some people hear 'star war's and don't want to touch it and the fact it's episode 7 means if they do they feel they won't know anything. Avatar was a pretty new IP.



There's only 2 races: White and 'Political Agenda'
2 Genders: Male and 'Political Agenda'
2 Hairstyles for female characters: Long and 'Political Agenda'
2 Sexualities: Straight and 'Political Agenda'

Miguel_Zorro said:
spurgeonryan said:

 



Oh, I thought that was today's update. @ thread 6 million the rest of this week each day. 18 million weekend, 4 million a day next week, 12 million weekend, and on and on. Easily 100-150 more million domestically. Could get very close to 1 billion.

I still don't think it will get close to a billion.  I had it landing between 930 and 950, and it's trending exactly where I had at Day 31 (850) to get to that prediction.  A month from now it will be around 910.  It will do a few billion a week after that.



I think you've made the best typo in a long time :P

good job with you're prediction of 850 for day 31, however I still think you are estimating a bit low. though glad to see your estimation mostly above your 10%  you'd mentioned before. The closer it gets to a billion the more likely Disney will push it to make sure it makes it.

Your estimate for around 910 in a month has it doing less than 2 million better than the avengers in it's 2nd month (day 32 to 62) 57.7 million vs 56 million but then doing 5 to 25 million better over the rest of the run, while with 3 exception TFA has being preforming better every day.