You make many argoment, and i like it, even if i disagree.

That said:

1) Considering you talk about Zhuge ( one of the best expert in this settor ) he predict PS4 under 90 million lifetime.

http://i481.photobucket.com/albums/rr180/jabbamk1/Forecast2014REV2_zpsjmuevfai.jpg

And i agree with Zhuge. The PS4 is up in the last quarter, but is down for the first half of 2015, 5.7 million VS 5.4 million. Despicite i believe will be up YOY thanks a very good Q4, between July and September it will probabily be down, because last year it god the PS4 white with Destiny. The Metal Gear solid edition or the Destiny taken king will not even close with this bundle in the US, the PS4 has sold 538k in Sep NPD, honestly i'm not even sure if this September the PS4 will break 400k ( but i'm generus and as for now i predict 420k, maybe even 450k is possible but is hard to say withouth know how has sold / will sell in July and August ), the same in Europe, but not a big gap like in the US, and of course Metal Gear will be bigger in Japan but is not going to close the gap Globally, so i expect PS4 UNDER 3.3 MILLION this quarter ( but really close, around 3.2 million is what i think).

Now, talk about pricedrop. Ok, is true that PS4 actually don't get a pricedrop, but be honest guys, that's really matter? There are a billion of promotion for both PS4 and XBO, you can EASY buy PS4 under 400 $/€ , or at least buy it with many games.

Just for example, i'm from Italy, you can buy PS4 + The Order + The Last of Us + BloodBorne for ONLY 429€

http://www.amazon.it/PlayStation-Console-Bloodborne-Bundle-Limited/dp/B00VE9E624/ref=zg_bs_videogames_37

And one time last year, in July, the PS4 was cost 199€ for one week with FIFA 15... yes. 199€!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.spaziogames.it/notizie_videogiochi/console_playstation_ps4/200023/sony-presenta-le-offerte-su-ps4-di-mediaworld-e-carrefour.aspx

For not even talk about the PS4 at 350$ in the US with Destiny during December... that's just some promotion. So, after that, you guys seriusly think a pricedrop will be huge? If we talk about 50 $/€ will be nearly nothing, can help a bit for one month maximum two... if we talk about 100 $/€, that's another story, but still, you guys overestimate how big can effect a pricedrop... And is not going to help for a long time, like many of you think.

And many of you should undestand that PS4 is not going to have the PS3 or the 360 legs. this gen will be shorter than last gen.

2) That's not gonna to happen, and even if will, still that's going to change nothing, PS4 is going to sell 6 million lifetime, but if we are generus and we put PS4 at 10 million ( and over that is just ridiculus) that's just 4 million more globally... The home console in Japan are death, is time to accept this. there is no comeback, at least this gen, we will see with NX and PS5...

3) Meh... i don't know what say. I just think is not gonna to help the sales, but i can be wrong, maybe is going to make another kinect miracle.

BUT IS UNLUCKY.

I believe in PS4 at 90 million and XB1 at 40 million shipped lifetime.

One reply in bold ^

Also, since you are so fond of YoY predictions, what's your YoY prediction for the PS4 that makes it under 90 million lifetime?

Zhuge also predicted 2.9 million and PS4 shipped 2.4 million in the first quarter of 2015... in short: Zhuge is not the god, but is probabily one of the most expert, FOR SURE the most expert of this site...

That said, here my prediction:

2013: 4.5 million

2014: 15.4 million

2015: 16.5 million

2016: 17.5 million

2017: 14.5 million

2018: 12 million

2019: 7.5million

2020: 4 million

After that around 2/2.5 million.

Yes, you probabily not gonna agree about the dropped since 2017, but i have my reason... i want write much, but i can't because my mother want my PC NOW, so, in short:

The generation is not the 7th, the thing are change, and the firsts year are more important than one time. Also, i expect a decline for CoD, BF, AC, and many other games, that's will be a important factor for the PS4 decrease. very short spiegation i know, but i already said why. BYE! :D

Reply in bold

Agreed even as a fellow nintyfan, expecting the PS4 to sell under 100M is a little pessimistic. I'm thinking between 100-110 is safe with Xbox One between 50-60?

OT: The Wii was simply a monster lol. That is the definition of incredible, easily competing with two successful plats in their early years.

ok, my mother is still using my PC, so i write with my phone, but is such a mess... That said: I already said what the pricedrop will be. Write the discussion with JRPG, you can already buy EASY a PS4 for under 400 $€, or even it for 400€$ but with in bundle 100 so... A price is not going to be huge like you predict.

Also, like i already said, this holidays for PS4 will be huge, with or withouth pricedrop, Battlefront and Call of Duty will sell more PS4 than Uncharted and Gran Turismo, and that's the point... CoD is in decline, for the nextbs year is not going to help PS4 and or XB1, just like much other series, assassin's Creed, Battlefield, ecc... So yeah. 2016 will be a bit bigger than 2015, and after that, after Uncharted, after Gran Turismo, after COD AC BF, i expect a decent dropped for the PS4.

And still. The main point of what i said is that: THE THING ARE CHANGE. Hell, look 3DS, it is dropped by a decent margin in 2013 even with 2DS, Pokèmon, Monster Hunter ecc. Now you can say "but is a Nintendo console" that's doent matter, DS is a Nintendo console and has peacked in the year 5, with QUADRUPLE SALES OF THE FIRSTS YEAR.

Wii U, is increase in the second year by just 20% even with Mario Kart and Smash Bros.

Now you can say "But is a Nintendo console" well even Wii was a Nintendo console, and it is increase by 50% the second year...

PSVita. It was also down yoy the second year... And is not even a Nintendo console... Point remain: In term of legs-increase YOY, this gen is not even close with 7gen, the PS4 will not have the PS3 legs and will have a bigger dropped in next year than PS3. And now, can you write the your YOY prediction? ( I also thing i was too generus with this year, maybe 16m was a better prediction... )

1) I think this gen will be long.
2) I think the jump from 28nm->14nm is a big one, once it gets a die shrink, its price will drop like a rock.
3) a 150-199$ PS4, is going to still sell good after the launch of a PS5. Much like how the PS2 sold for along time for cheap.

PS4 is going over 100m, I have no doubts about it.

Feel free to quote me on it, 5-6 years from now, if that is not the case.

Don't know about this year, Wii could actually win, it will be close though. It wouldn't however be much of a victory would it? Apparently it takes a combination of two 'cutting-edge, hardcore consoles' to beat the simple 'underpowered, casual fluke of a console' . Anyway, we all know Wii was an absolute beast it's first three years which we'll probably never see again in the console industry so it's not much of a comparison to begin with.

Furthermore, to catch on to the other discussion, I'd say PS4 will end at Wii lifetime sales, a bit over 100m. Funny that there would then be three consoles at around 102m lifetime sales. I don't see this gen being as lucrative as the last, or last as many years, so I doubt the XBox One will get far above 50m if it will, maybe up to 60m at maximum, for a lifetime of this generation (minus Nintendo) of about 150 to 160 million consoles. Virtual Reality will fail, definitely won't entice the so-called casual gamer and it's not going to help PS4 in any significant way. Price-cuts lose their impact the longer it takes, but PS4 is however, simply the 'go-to' console this generation so it won't have much of a problem maintaining good sales.

drop that denial, wii sold a lot untill late 2010 (4 years). Only the fifth year had a big decline and the sole reason was lack of releases.

I can say the same about PS4 until you can prove me I'm wrong.