| JRPGfan said:
I feel like that is a very conservative estimate. This gen the PS4 breaks 100m, and Xbox should go over 30m as well.
Why do I think so? 1) It shipped 25.3mil units by end of june (3mil, up more than 300k from same time last year). This is dispite it still haveing the same price as it launched at. Once it gets a price cut, sales will be crazy. Its best years are still ahead of it, the sales dispite being crazy good, are no where near where they could be. Think of how many exclusives it has comeing in 2016? "Anyway. You guys should know that PS4 sold better this quarter than Xbox One + Xbox 360 + Wii U + Wii + 3DS combined...." - quote ZhugeEX
2) I believe japan is going to make a comeback with consoles: - FF XIV
3) project morpheus: This is the new thing that casuals will want to try (the wii mote effect will kick in). I think VR is going to be big... and the place its going to sell the most is on the consoles where experianceing VR will be the cheapest / easiest to do. |
You make many argoment, and i like it, even if i disagree.
That said:
1) Considering you talk about Zhuge ( one of the best expert in this settor ) he predict PS4 under 90 million lifetime.
http://i481.photobucket.com/albums/rr180/jabbamk1/Forecast2014REV2_zpsjmuevfai.jpg
And i agree with Zhuge. The PS4 is up in the last quarter, but is down for the first half of 2015, 5.7 million VS 5.4 million. Despicite i believe will be up YOY thanks a very good Q4, between July and September it will probabily be down, because last year it god the PS4 white with Destiny. The Metal Gear solid edition or the Destiny taken king will not even close with this bundle in the US, the PS4 has sold 538k in Sep NPD, honestly i'm not even sure if this September the PS4 will break 400k ( but i'm generus and as for now i predict 420k, maybe even 450k is possible but is hard to say withouth know how has sold / will sell in July and August ), the same in Europe, but not a big gap like in the US, and of course Metal Gear will be bigger in Japan but is not going to close the gap Globally, so i expect PS4 UNDER 3.3 MILLION this quarter ( but really close, around 3.2 million is what i think).
Now, talk about pricedrop. Ok, is true that PS4 actually don't get a pricedrop, but be honest guys, that's really matter? There are a billion of promotion for both PS4 and XBO, you can EASY buy PS4 under 400 $/€ , or at least buy it with many games.
Just for example, i'm from Italy, you can buy PS4 + The Order + The Last of Us + BloodBorne for ONLY 429€
And one time last year, in July, the PS4 was cost 199€ for one week with FIFA 15... yes. 199€!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
For not even talk about the PS4 at 350$ in the US with Destiny during December... that's just some promotion. So, after that, you guys seriusly think a pricedrop will be huge? If we talk about 50 $/€ will be nearly nothing, can help a bit for one month maximum two... if we talk about 100 $/€, that's another story, but still, you guys overestimate how big can effect a pricedrop... And is not going to help for a long time, like many of you think.
And many of you should undestand that PS4 is not going to have the PS3 or the 360 legs. this gen will be shorter than last gen.
2) That's not gonna to happen, and even if will, still that's going to change nothing, PS4 is going to sell 6 million lifetime, but if we are generus and we put PS4 at 10 million ( and over that is just ridiculus) that's just 4 million more globally... The home console in Japan are death, is time to accept this. there is no comeback, at least this gen, we will see with NX and PS5...
3) Meh... i don't know what say. I just think is not gonna to help the sales, but i can be wrong, maybe is going to make another kinect miracle.
BUT IS UNLUCKY.
I believe in PS4 at 90 million and XB1 at 40 million shipped lifetime.
