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Ryng on 02 August 2015
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Teeqoz said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Zhuge also predicted 2.9 million and PS4 shipped 2.4 million in the first quarter of 2015... in short: Zhuge is not the god, but is probabily one of the most expert, FOR SURE the most expert of this site...

That said, here my prediction:

2013: 4.5 million

2014: 15.4 million

2015: 16.5 million

2016: 17.5 million (considering the PS4 will get its first pricecut late 2015/early 2016, only 1 million up is too low.)

2017: 14.5 million (I think 2016 will be the peak year, but 3 million drop is too much (and that 17.5m for 2016 is too low to begin with)

2018: 12 million (too big drop again)

2019: 7.5million (Even if PS5 launches that year, 7.5 million is still too low)

2020: 4 million

After that around 2/2.5 million.

FYI, you don't agree with Zhugex, because your prediction adds up to a total of 93.9 million.

 

Yes, you probabily not gonna agree about the dropped since 2017, but i have my reason... i want write much, but i can't because my mother want my PC NOW, so, in short:

The generation is not the 7th, the thing are change, and the firsts year are more important than one time. Also, i expect a decline for CoD, BF, AC, and many other games, that's will be a important factor for the PS4 decrease. very short spiegation i know, but i already said why. BYE! :D


Reply in bold


ok, my mother is still using my PC, so i write with my phone, but is such a mess... That said: I already said what the pricedrop will be. Write the discussion with JRPG, you can already buy EASY a PS4 for under 400 $€, or even it for 400€$ but with in bundle 100 so... A price is not going to be huge like you predict.

Also, like i already said, this holidays for PS4 will be huge, with or withouth pricedrop, Battlefront and Call of Duty will sell more PS4 than Uncharted and Gran Turismo, and that's the point... CoD is in decline, for the nextbs year is not going to help PS4 and or XB1, just like much other series, assassin's Creed, Battlefield, ecc... So yeah. 2016 will be a bit bigger than 2015, and after that, after Uncharted, after Gran Turismo, after COD AC BF, i expect a decent dropped for the PS4.

And still. The main point of what i said is that: THE THING ARE CHANGE. Hell, look 3DS, it is dropped by a decent margin in 2013 even with 2DS, Pokèmon, Monster Hunter ecc. Now you can say "but is a Nintendo console" that's doent matter, DS is a Nintendo console and has peacked in the year 5, with QUADRUPLE SALES OF THE FIRSTS YEAR.

Wii U, is increase in the second year by just 20% even with Mario Kart and Smash Bros.

Now you can say "But is a Nintendo console" well even Wii was a Nintendo console, and it is increase by 50% the second year...

PSVita. It was also down yoy the second year... And is not even a Nintendo console... Point remain: In term of legs-increase YOY, this gen is not even close with 7gen, the PS4 will not have the PS3 legs and will have a bigger dropped in next year than PS3. And now, can you write the your YOY prediction? ( I also thing i was too generus with this year, maybe 16m was a better prediction... )