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Forums - Sales Discussion - Microsoft expects a defeat in February NPD

Hmm. This is kinda bad. The 360 had some great games released in Feburary.



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My understanding is certain high-powered clients get a preview of NPD data a day before the 'full public release', which means this is likely based on final or near final NPD data.  Still, I imagine it won't be much of a victory, as every source I have seen, whether Pachter, VGC, Sim Exchange, suggest a near tie between 360 & PS3.

I'm expecting something like this

Wii-DS-PS3-PS2-PSP-360

Wii will be 300k-500k (i'd guess 420k)

DS will be 280k-380k (i'd guess 330k)

PS3 will be 240k-340k (i'd guess 260k)

PS2 will be 200k-280k (i'd guess 248k)

PSP will be 220k-260k (i'd guess 236k)

Xbox 360 will be 190k-270k (i'd guess 228k) 

 

 

 

 

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Great, now we can look forward to ten thousand more threads about how 360 is doomed from PS3 fanboys this month

Oh wait, that's a normal month anyway.

 



dabaus513 said:
I think we'll be hearing this "shortage" excuse for along time to come.

I don't, they said they would resolve their supply issues sometime in March.  Why wouldn't the shortage effect February NPD?



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TheSource said:

My understanding is certain high-powered clients get a preview of NPD data a day before the 'full public release', which means this is likely based on final or near final NPD data. Still, I imagine it won't be much of a victory, as every source I have seen, whether Pachter, VGC, Sim Exchange, suggest a near tie between 360 & PS3.

I'm expecting something like this

Wii-DS-PS3-PS2-PSP-360

Wii will be 300k-500k (i'd guess 420k)

DS will be 280k-380k (i'd guess 330k)

PS3 will be 240k-340k (i'd guess 260k)

PS2 will be 200k-280k (i'd guess 248k)

PSP will be 220k-260k (i'd guess 236k)

Xbox 360 will be 190k-270k (i'd guess 228k)

 

 

 

 

 


 wow, that takes some serious guts to predict it.

 

Especially the part where you predicted xbox to be beaten by PS3 by about 30K+, also, below PS2.

 I think your Wii number is a bit high, but purely base on Jan's NPD number. We might see another adjustment within this week if it is indeed the case.



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KH3 bet: "If KH3 comes to Wii exclusive, I will take a 1 month of sig/avatar by otheres open a thread apologize and praise you guys' brilliance." http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=18379
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selnor
: Too Human I even expect 3-4 mill entire life and 500,000 first day. GoW2 ( expect 7 - 9 million entire life and over 2 mill first day), Fable 2 (expect 5-6 million entire life and 1.5 mill fist day) BK3 (expect 4 - 5 mill sales entire life and 1 mill first day).. Tales/IU/TLR should get to 2 or 3 million! post id: 868878
Episode 2:
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Deviation59 said:
ils411 said:
Deviation59 said:
Willow said:
Lol, didnt VG have the 360 outselling the ps3 355k to 338k for the month of febuary?

Yup. Even when Microsoft acknowledges it, VGChartz doesn't seem to believe it when the PS3 outsells the Xbox 360 in America. You'd think that after the January NPD numbers (especially with Microsoft saying even then that they didn't expect to be back in the saddle until March) that VGchartz would give the PS3 a bit more credit. No such luck, however.


actually, if you remember, vgchartz tracked ps3 sales way below 360s sales last january and when npd numbers came out, figures were adjusted (i should know, its a pain updating my sales tracking. back tracking and checking what and where sales were updated). now, during february, we see the ps3s sales outselling the 360 ww on a weekly basis as tracked by vgchartz. so the statment form ms would actually justify vgchartz tracking the ps3 over the 360 during february on a ww basis.

so i dont understand how you could say that vgchartz isnt giving the ps3 "more credit"

Except, as far as I can tell, those numbers were never adjusted: http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons%5B%5D=PS3&cons%5B%5D=X360®%5B%5D=America&start=39453&end=39481

 

 


they did, since i just recently started tracking the ps3 sales per region, i have no old data for NA. but i do have old/unadjusted data for the ww sales...so lets extrapolate...

original sales figures ww (before adjustment-in cause your courious i had a thread for this...)

http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=19424

PeriodBeforeAfterDifference
5-Jan-08291,232296,1424,910
12-Jan-08171,222176,1244,902
19-Jan-08164,142169,4035,261
26-Jan-08174,579182,1007,521
2-Feb-08183,926192,0588,132
    
Total985,1011,015,82730,726

now what we have here is ww sales, now i have the adjusted sales per region from jan 5 to feb 2.

 NA         315,234
 Jap         213,367
 Others         487,226
 Total       1,015,827

so toal jap and others is 700,593. so if we subtract this value from 1,015,827 we get 284,508 which should be the na numbers. but since na is 315,238 we subtract 284,508 from 315,238 and we get 30,726

so, na figures were adjusted by 30,726

yes, i know, its still far from npd figures which showed the ps3 outselling the 360 in the us during january but hey, figures were still adjusted by 30k.



The shortage seems to be over right now from what I can tell. All online places are stocked and I saw lots last time I went to Wal Mart and Best Buy.

 

The shortages ended about the 3/4 week of February as far as I could tell. Still, that means 1/2 the month or more was under shortage. Even if that was a difference of 30k consoles, that would be enough to give PS3 the win because they're pretty close.

 

Really, it almost doesn't matter who wins, as I've been saying. They are selling about the same. People make a huge deal out of the "winner" but they are both selling basically even. 



^if you ask me, the ps3 and the 360 both won as they both registered over 40% sales growth vs the same period last year.



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Doctor: You're able to have a baby--no problem there. It's just that he's having supply constraints.

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The stock issue resolved by April is a BS excuse.
Since the beginning of March you can find all the SKUs of Xbox360 in healthy supply at most shops...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !