More than likely under 20m. It's a decent system but lacks 3rd party (which does affect the decisions of people who aren't devoted to Nintendo) and its price is too high... $300 is a bit steep for a system that has as many few games + delays it's received.

I like it a lot, but the only real reason I own it now rather than later was become of my gf XD all the games I want, Mario Maker, SMT x FE, and XCX aren't coming for months T.T

Can I have source for your skyward sword sales? Cos Nintendo released 1st weekend sales off 3.8million then no more so how do you know lifetime to date?

Lack of third party, okay price, negative reception of the gamepad and hardware, new console to be released rumors, etc.. makes it really hard for the Wii U to sell

My LT is 12M-16M

Ok, SERIUSLY.

12,000,000 Lifetime is more ridiculus than 30,000,000!

I think with a price cut ($250 Legend of Zelda bundle or maybe limited edition Wii U) it could get some good numbers in those last few years. Either way, at least hardcore gamers are looking more at the Wii U this gen, and if they really show something interesting for the NX people may really get on board.

This gen I think may have been completely different if Nintendo didn't entirely screw up its launch year. All there was really to play was a lot of ports people already had on other consoles (half not even being the definitive edition) and Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate. Had they gotten more consoles into peoples homes third parties may have given a crap about it.

Needless to say, I hope Nintendo learned a LOT this gen about what it needs to do with its next console. Long droughts are one of the absolute biggest reasons it's in the situation it is in now. Go x86, put a LOT more memory for downloads and save files, and have some of those amazing games lined up FIRST YEAR, also try and have the hardware to where it's fairly easy to port and make your version the best version straight from day 1 (I'm not saying it has to be PS5 or XTwo powerful, just realize developers are lazy).

Oh, and drop the Wii name.

It's sad to think about the potential the Wii U has that will never be realized largely in part to Nintendo not giving anyone a reason to buy one until the other consoles were revealed.

I think these are all just symptoms of a bigger problem -- Nintendo simply can't sell consoles very well at all anymore unless they have some gimmick/fad to tie their console to. But those are hard to come by.

People simply prefer a "Sony-type" console. That's just all there is to it. Nintendo can keep trying the same "Mario and friends + wacky ideas = please pay us $200-$300 for this" formula over and over again, and it won't work.

I think it starts right from the fundamental vision that Nintendo has for consoles -- Nintendo wants consoles to remain some what toy-like and "family first" ... the mass market doesn't want that. If given a choice they almost overwhelmingly chose the console that is going for the "cool" market image and pushing consoles in the direction of being more of a serious home electronics product at home with stereo equipment, home theater stuff, and a big screen TV. 

From there on, Nintendo's problems just snowball.

It's actually kind of a minor miracle that Nintendo is still doing at least somewhat OK mainly relying on franchises from the 1980s (Mario and Zelda). There's not much from the 1980s that's still hugely relevant in a market sense today.

Many reasons:

1. Wii's momentum slowed down significantly after 2010. Wii sold 85 million units from 2006-2010, but from 2011-2013 sold only 15 million. Aside from Zelda, 2011 and 2012 were quite barren for the Wii as well.

Compare this to the PS3 which was in its prime from 2011-2013. This helped the PS4 get a ton of goodwill and thus sold like crazy.

2. Lack of killer apps. Nothing really screams "gotta have it!" besides for Smash Bros. and Mario Kart. There is no 3D Mario adventure, no Animal Crossing, no Zelda, and no Wii Sports or anything. Wii launched with Wii Sports and Twilight Princess which was huge.

3. Underpowered and overpriced. The Wii U is barely above the 360 and PS3 yet sold for $350 at launch. Not to mention this means less to no multiplats. Also 32GB was a joke in 2012.

4. Online is huge in gaming now and Nintendo still hates it. Nintendo once said "Customers do not want online games" and 10 years later they are still sticking by it.

5. The controller doesn't appeal to anyone. It's super expensive too. The Wiimote appealed to so many different demographics it was crazy: old people, women, hardcore gamers, kids, etc. etc. On the other hand the gamepad has no mass market appeal. Even Nintendo doesn't know what to do with it.

I predicted 40 million total sales for the Wii U in 2012. Admittedly I let some of the hype get to me (as my original prediction was 25 million) but I doubt it can get half of 40 million now. I say it finishes with 15 million by the end of 2016.

It will no way be 4 million. 3 should be possible, if christmas business goes well.

Last year had two of Nintendos biggest titles, though both catching more or less the same Nintendo fans.

This year has a few interesting to possibly very good games, but neither of em is a Mario Kart. As well there is no Zelda in 2015.
Splatoon and Yoshi should do well enough together with the already released games to not fall back to 2013 baselines. But one is new and one is just not that big. I'm 120% sure they wont sell that much consoles.

Devils Third will very likely be pretty niche. I'm not expecting it to do any better than Bayonetta 2, likely worse.

Star Fox might be interesting. We haven't had a new Star Fox for years. But none of the previous ones including the 3DS Remake did to well.

Xenoblade X likely wont be that big in the west. For sure it wont be in Europe. I'd actually bet on that.

Last thing in line is Mario Maker. That might sell well. But after NSMBU and 3D World i just don't see it moving many consoles.

So, if there isn't a really big surprise in the pipeline for 2015 i just dont see Wii U doing any better than last year, very likely slightly worse. At least as long as it is a 290€ console.

And 2016, well, that could be Wii U's last good year. Zelda U, something from Retro and hopefully a few other bigger titles.

So, 15,000,000 by 2016?

This seem reasonable (but i think will sell between 15,500,000 and 16,000,000), but your lifetime prediction?

True, but we will have have price cut and few smaller titles than MK8 and SSB.