I generally agree, although I would say Bloodborne has a better chance than you claim. It may be niche, but GOTY is given by magazines, not by sales. Also I would add Persona 5 as a niche title getting some GOTYs along with Splatoon and Xenoblade.

I don't think so. Yes, the Witcher has a good amount of hype, but in difference to the Order we have so far no negative signs. So it might still fall short in some regards, but it is highly unlikely it will be a big disappointment.

Agreed, sadly this will be the case. I also think MGS might not be this big this time, Bloodborne and The Witcher will steal it's thunder.

I believe bloodborne will take it this year

Doubtful. Bloodborne, The Witcher and Halo are probably the most likely. Zelda would be up there, but it is delayed. And maybe something big is announced we don't know about yet. But Tearaway probably will get even less GOTY-awards than XCX.

Well, it is linked for the Metacritic GOTY.

Actually the Metacritic is calculated based on the reviews of the same magaziones that are giving out GOTY-awards. So games that got high scores from the magazines might be more likely picked for GOTY. It is not always that straightforward, but Meta can be an indication.

Metacritic games dont win GOTY awards. Bayonetta didnt win GOTY and that had a meta of 91 and was beaten by a game in the mid/high 80s.

Personaly i think games like Ori and the Blind Forest and Pillars of Enterity have a good chance of winning GOTYs.

XCX won't have a lot of awards because it's a Japanese RPG on a console very few care about. GOTYs are decided as a panel of people instead one person doing a review. This is why metacritic or review score doesn't have much place to decide. Games that have broader appeal are likely to be better received simply because more people have played them.

I don't expect Splatoon to make as much of an impact as some people seem to be expecting. I honestly don't know why the game is getting so much attention. I am also highly doubtful that either Halo or Metal Gear Solid will receive many accolades, especially Halo considering how poorly those games have fared at the GOTY awards since the original. I think Bloodborne is an obvious choice and Arkham Knight will have a strong showing as well as a chance of coming out on top.