Bingo! 

Um...what? You were off by a factor of 100. I don't think you should be the one disputing numbers. And it MIGHT be barely less than 4%. And 4% of the entire human race is large. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise. At least I didn't think it was .04%...

If we measure current relevance from current total HW and SW sales numbers, Ninty is still the second most relevant console maker, so, unless it drops further, it won't become irrelevant before MS does.

Did you read my post? "In home consoles". I'm just showing how flawed you argument that Nintendo is amazingly successful because their 2011 handheld and 2012 console right now are ahead of a 2012 handheld and two 2013 consoles. It's the same that saying that all consoles this gen are a failure because the PS3 already did 85M.

The difference is that you are comparing a console that is on its first year with a handheld that already peaked. Compare the first year of any console with its 3rd or 4th year and see the difference. Each year, 3DS will sell less and PS4 will sell more. 3DS already did more than half of its sales work and now it's winding down. Your numbers just show that even on its first year, PS4 almost beat Wii U and 3DS combined.

If you are so sure, just take the bet.It won't even take a full gen to lose it.

Are you trying to say that's anything decently good about the Wii U's performance? PS4 and X1 are running circles around it. The sales are beyond terrible. Your install base claim is also ridiculous. We know that game sales won't scale up with install bases. Halo games sold 9M on XB with 24M consoles and its 360 sequels did 12M peak with 80M+ consoles. I was definitively expecting 36M sales for each one of them.

What we can take from this is that MK8 sold 5M units while the previous games sold 35M. That one hell of a drop.

Mobile isn't even trying to compete with handhelds yet. If something like Tegra K1 with full console ports becomes a thing and we start to see decent controller support, things will get nasty for handhelds.

The question about Nintendo's irrelevance isn't related to sales. It's related to influence. What MS and Sony do or don't do changes the industry. It's on the news. What Nintendo does isn't important anymore. They create hardware for themselves and that's it. It's a separate world. The whole concept of a home console is being a device with fixed specs that provides APIs for devs to create games for it. Since the beginning, Nintendo saw 3rd parties as competitors and tried to screw them with older SDK versions, insane hardware designs, etc. They are the worst business partner because they are, simultaneously, a competitor and the owner of the enviroment.

Im just trying to see your logic.

PS4 has sold 20.5M in its first 15 months

3DS sold 16,3M in its first 15 months

Not exactly a huge difference...  

You are in the wrong thread. This about Nintendo relevance (not success) on this generation(3ds+wiiu) and the next one

It's because you can't compare these two directly, their sales pattern is too different. PS consoles have huge legs, Nintendo consoles usually don't. If you did your comparison in 2008 between the Wii and the PS2, the Wii  should be around 240M now. My comparison is 3DS vs DS and PS4 vs PS3 vs PS2 + market division between MS/Sony.

You can't deny that the sales pattern is too different. PS2 was being sold until 2013. You can count PS3 to go at least halfway this gen, most likely until it ends. 3DS is a 8th gen console and will probably be discontinued before this gen is over.

Just take the bet if you think it's so impossible. Easy bragging rights.

over 20% marketshare isn't irrelevant, and they do get the best exclusives and most successfull handhelds.