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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Do you think Nintendo will be relevent next gen?

torok on 06 April 2015
zorg1000 said:

Overall Nintendo hardware sold this generation will likely be somewhere right in the middle of Microsoft/Sony hardware.

Microsoft-60 million

Nintendo-85 million

Sony-135 million

If that's the case than Nintnedo is very relevant especially when u consider how much Nintendo-published software sells.

 

As I said, they are being irrelevant in home consoles. In handhelds they are the driving force. The only thing that would change that would be an eventually full mobile takedown of the entire handheld segment.



Bet with jetforcejiminy: PS4 will pass the Wii lifetime numbers.

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tak13 on 06 April 2015
torok said:
zorg1000 said:
 

Overall Nintendo hardware sold this generation will likely be somewhere right in the middle of Microsoft/Sony hardware.

Microsoft-60 million

Nintendo-85 million

Sony-135 million

If that's the case than Nintnedo is very relevant especially when u consider how much Nintendo-published software sells.

 

As I said, they are being irrelevant in home consoles. In handhelds they are the driving force. The only thing that would change that would be an eventually full mobile takedown of the entire handheld segment.

Although it's pretty good on home console that mario kart 8 has almost sold 5m on a small installbase,matching games on a far bigger installbase,do you agree?

Mobile have done the damage that it  could do,they can't do further...Mainly,because smartphone market is reaching the total saturation and mobile games have an ephemeral success(This is a problem for Nintendo in its mobile venture,but I'm optimistic!)So some people can't stick to mobile as they get bored with these games!:P



KLXVER on 06 April 2015
torok said:
KLXVER said:


Says the guy who just told us that the PS4 will sell more than the 3DS and WiiU combined with nothing to support the claim...


It's just a reasonable extrapolation of the numbers. Aligning the Wii U with the GC, it would end up far behind. However, I would still give some credit to it so it can end up with 20-25M at best. 3DS is winding down. With a lot of luck, it could do 100M and that would be on par with the aligned comparison with its sucessor.

But we can look at the numbers in a different way. DS started going down YoY on it's fifth full year available (if you want to count the November launch, sixth). 3DS is going down on it's forth. In its fifth year, DS went down 7%. 3DS went down 32% on its fouth year. That means that 3DS has shorter legs than the DS, so we could predict a faster slowdown and 80M seems a more reasonable prediction, with 90M being absolutely the highest it can get.

We have the NX announced. It will cut the life of one (or both) of these consoles short, most likely 3DS. 100M combined sales look pretty reasonable for the current trends.

Looking at PS4, I don't think that current sales trends could be that useful, or we would have to predict it above the PS2 and that's highly unlikely because it actually has much more capable competition on X1 only that PS2 had on GC and XB. PS360 have 170M combined sales. Until their discontinuation is reasonable to assume that PS3 will do 90M-100M and 360 will do 90-95M, resulting in 180-195M sales. Ignoring the inevitable growth in marketshare for both (specially because some Wii casuals are gravitating towards the new HD twins), we could just split 180M with the current markeshare (PS4 2: 1 X1) and have 120M for the PS4. Saying it will do more than 100M is safe. PS3, with all the troubles did it, there is no reason why its much more successful sucessor won't beat it.

So that's a pretty reasonable explanation. Don't agree? I'll take a bet on it anyday. Easy win.


Numbers since the launch of PS4

PS4 - 20.5M

3DS - 16.5M

WiiU - 5.5M

 

Either the PS4 should have at least double the weekly sales or the 3DS should have half weekly of what it has now.

I dont see it happening.



zorg1000 on 06 April 2015
torok said:
zorg1000 said:
 

Overall Nintendo hardware sold this generation will likely be somewhere right in the middle of Microsoft/Sony hardware.

Microsoft-60 million

Nintendo-85 million

Sony-135 million

If that's the case than Nintnedo is very relevant especially when u consider how much Nintendo-published software sells.

 

As I said, they are being irrelevant in home consoles. In handhelds they are the driving force. The only thing that would change that would be an eventually full mobile takedown of the entire handheld segment.


Which is why I think Nintendo needs to unify their hardware and allow all software to be playable on either device. Their really isn't much point in heavily investing in R&D and making exclusive software for devices that will only sell 15-20 million (GC & Wii U).

In this scenario, even if the console variant sells Wii U numbers and the handheld market continues to shrink, they should still be able to sell a combined 50-70 million (console 15-20m, handheld 35-50m) which is a large enough install base for their ip to sill strong numbers on and for 3rd parties to find some success. That's honestly a worst case scenario, if Nintendo gets the price/marketing/software right than its entirely possible they sell better than 3DS/Wii U.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 06 April 2015
tak13 said:
zorg1000 said:

Overall Nintendo hardware sold this generation will likely be somewhere right in the middle of Microsoft/Sony hardware.

Microsoft-60 million

Nintendo-85 million

Sony-135 million

If that's the case than Nintnedo is very relevant especially when u consider how much Nintendo-published software sells.

Keep sticking to the pessimistic predictions that you consider realistic!:P

It's a very realistic prediction based on both devices sales trajectory. What is ur prediction by the way?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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160rmf on 06 April 2015
torok said:

160rmf said:
3ds+WiiU> Ps4 + X1 + Vita

if that is not to be relevant then i don't know what is

3DS has almost 3 years ahead of the PS4 and Wii U has 1. When this gen it's over, we will have PS4 > 3DS + Wii U. Don't try to make something that's bad look good.

So if ps4 outsells the wiiu+3ds by a few millions units then Nintendo is irrelevant and of course excluding the overall software sales of Nintendo published and developed games because that is totally irrelevant

What the time they released have anything to do with the topic? People who bought the 3ds in 2011 or the Wii U in 2013 thought these products are relevants to them and will keep them to next years



 

 

We reap what we sow

160rmf on 06 April 2015
Johnw1104 said:
Did not read any of the previous 179 replies, suffice it to say that Nintendo's "relevancy" in gaming is no where near endangered as of yet.


Pretty much this



 

 

We reap what we sow

tak13 on 06 April 2015
zorg1000 said:
tak13 said:

Keep sticking to the pessimistic predictions that you consider realistic!:P

It's a very realistic prediction based on both devices sales trajectory. What is ur prediction by the way?


I will not say as I'm not sure about my 3DS expectations!But I'm seeing 100m  total at least!Zorg this is lowballing not realism,you will remember me sometime!85m in your mind means 17-18m(When the most pessimistic but accurate analystS expect 20m,there is a problem with your prediction zorg) :P wii u and 68-67m 3DS...Wii u hasn't gotten a price cut yet,so wait for that to judge!

At least you should expect 3DS to be higher...

At worst 3DS will have sold 60m+ by the end of the year,a fact that makes 67m prediction as lifetime sales absurd...



Mr Khan on 06 April 2015
UltimateUnknown said:
RolStoppable said:
Yes, they will be relevant.

They'll do it by ignoring the major third party publishers and focusing on their own strengths.

Seriously, did any 3rd parties ask for the gamepad to be included with the Wii U?

It's clear Nintendo did not bother asking 3rd parties when deciding how their console will be made. I remember Pete Hines from Bathesda saying this about the Wii U:

"If you're going to just decide, 'we're going to make a box, and this is how it's going to work and you should make games for it,' well, no. No is my answer."

While on the other hand he had this to say about MS and Sony:

"You have to do what Sony and Microsoft has been doing with us for a long time, and it's not that every time we met with them we got all the answers we wanted, but they involved us very early on and talked to folks like Bethesda and Gearbox [sic] and saying, 'here's what we're doing, here's what we're planning, here's how we think it's going to work.' To hear what we thought, from our tech guys and from an experience standpoint, what we thought."

This is coming from Bathesda who are a big 3rd party publisher. Just because Nintendo got a 3rd party executive on stage doesn't change how they ignored them while making the box itself. Ultimately that's why all the 3rd parties left them. The Wii U was Nintendo doing their own thing and hoping 3rd parties would support them.

Right: Nintendo should do their own thing and just not give a damn about what the third parties will do. This can be achieved if the device is profitable and unified architecture to allow Nintendo to make mostly the same games across console and handheld. If it's cheap, accessible, and loaded down with good Nintendo games, it will sell and the third parties will at least have to throw it a bone or two.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

zorg1000 on 06 April 2015
tak13 said:
zorg1000 said:

It's a very realistic prediction based on both devices sales trajectory. What is ur prediction by the way?


I will not say as I'm not sure about my 3DS expectations!But I'm seeing 100m  total at least!Zorg this is lowballing not realism,you will remember me sometime!85m in your mind means 17-18m(When the most pessimistic but accurate analystS expect 20m,there is a problem with your prediction zorg) :P wii u and 68-67m 3DS...Wii u hasn't gotten a price cut yet,so wait for that to judge!

At least you should expect 3DS to be higher...

At worst 3DS will have sold 60m+ by the end of the year,a fact that makes 67m prediction as lifetime sales absurd...

Gamecube+Gameboy Advance sold about 103 million total.

Wii U is tracking something like 4 million behind Gamecube and 3DS about 15 million behind GBA in the same time frame, so yes 85 million combined is a realistic prediction based on sales trends.

Nintendo has shown that they won't just throw price cuts at Wii U hoping for a miracle, they lost money 3 years in a row and are just focused on profitability over market share, we will never see Wii U get down to the $99 price range that GC was in. A price cut to $249.99 in September to go alongside Mario Maker seems possible along with a further cut to $199.99 in Spring 2017, about 6 months before it's successor releases but that's probably as low as it will go officially (remember 360/PS3 are about 9 years old and still in the $200 range). These things won't make Wii U sales skyrocket, they will just help reduce YoY decline and give momentary boosts.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.