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KLXVER on 06 April 2015
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torok said:
KLXVER said:


Says the guy who just told us that the PS4 will sell more than the 3DS and WiiU combined with nothing to support the claim...


It's just a reasonable extrapolation of the numbers. Aligning the Wii U with the GC, it would end up far behind. However, I would still give some credit to it so it can end up with 20-25M at best. 3DS is winding down. With a lot of luck, it could do 100M and that would be on par with the aligned comparison with its sucessor.

But we can look at the numbers in a different way. DS started going down YoY on it's fifth full year available (if you want to count the November launch, sixth). 3DS is going down on it's forth. In its fifth year, DS went down 7%. 3DS went down 32% on its fouth year. That means that 3DS has shorter legs than the DS, so we could predict a faster slowdown and 80M seems a more reasonable prediction, with 90M being absolutely the highest it can get.

We have the NX announced. It will cut the life of one (or both) of these consoles short, most likely 3DS. 100M combined sales look pretty reasonable for the current trends.

Looking at PS4, I don't think that current sales trends could be that useful, or we would have to predict it above the PS2 and that's highly unlikely because it actually has much more capable competition on X1 only that PS2 had on GC and XB. PS360 have 170M combined sales. Until their discontinuation is reasonable to assume that PS3 will do 90M-100M and 360 will do 90-95M, resulting in 180-195M sales. Ignoring the inevitable growth in marketshare for both (specially because some Wii casuals are gravitating towards the new HD twins), we could just split 180M with the current markeshare (PS4 2: 1 X1) and have 120M for the PS4. Saying it will do more than 100M is safe. PS3, with all the troubles did it, there is no reason why its much more successful sucessor won't beat it.

So that's a pretty reasonable explanation. Don't agree? I'll take a bet on it anyday. Easy win.


Numbers since the launch of PS4

PS4 - 20.5M

3DS - 16.5M

WiiU - 5.5M

 

Either the PS4 should have at least double the weekly sales or the 3DS should have half weekly of what it has now.

I dont see it happening.