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Forums - Sales Discussion - WW HW + SW week ending 31st Jan

Keybladewielder on 14 February 2015

Poor Wii U



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Ruler on 14 February 2015
Jabbamk1 said:
binary solo said:

Actually it does. If the release date isn't updated in the database - which is the actual error here - and the data sample does not have that game among confirmed sales the algorithm will still estimate sales that the data base tells the algorithm it is on the market. This does nothing to prove the sales estimate system is broken or unreliable. But it does seriously call into question the reliability of the game database management.

If you know how statistical modelling works you'd have understood these things, so whatever you do with the market research business it seems statistical modelling isn't it. Is it bad that vgc has recorded sales for a game that isn't out yet? Yes it's bad. But not for the reasons you are suggesting.


The point I'm making is that it's based off no real world data whatsoever (referring to actual DW8:Empires sales). 

What were to happen if the game database did update? Would we have the same number but just it comes out next month? It throws VGChartz entire premise out the window. You can't "track" a product that hasn' been released but it seems VGChartz already has algorithms in place to create numbers out of thin air. 

Anyone claiming VGChartz is a reliable tracker is wrong. It's a bunch of childs guesses. 

then make your own and better site if it can be made by children



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vivster on 14 February 2015
chapset said:
So X1 absolutely outselling the PS4 in the US might not be absolute after all.

The Amazon giveth and the Amazon taketh away.



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Dr.Vita on 14 February 2015

Ok, Vita sales are bigger in North America than Europe...




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Playstation Vita Media Create Sales (2014 vs 2015 vs 2016)
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SamuelRSmith on 14 February 2015
Jabbamk1 said:


That doesn't explain how you can "track" a game which is one month from release and rank it as the 45th best selling game in the USA for that week. Perhaps you missed the fact that THE GAME ISN'T OUT YET!

It explains exactly that.

And don't give me that whole "an estimate from Sony is the same as an estimate from VGChartz". That's a load of bs. 

I didn't say that.

VGChartz quite literally make their numbers up as proved above. You even said yourself that they use no actual data to come to their numbers and just use complete guess work based on trends in order to come up with a definitve number. Companies like NPD and Gfk use 90-95% actual hard data with the rest being an estimate. NPD and Gfk are far more accurate than VGChartz and anyone who says otherwise is deluded. 

Agreed.

And please don't use that condescending attitude with myself. I work for a market research organisation within the telecommunications industry. I know how it works. 

Thanks for the job description. Pretty vague though, I mean, if I saw that on LinkedIn, my first thought would be that you worked as one of those dudes who call me up to do surveys.





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Guitarguy on 14 February 2015

Vita doing surprisingly well considering it's previous non-Christmas period drought in sales?



Jabbamk1 on 14 February 2015
binary solo said:

The fact is no one is under any illusion that game sales numbers are at all accurate. There are too many games and not a big enough sampling plan to yield highly reliable figures. But getting the launch date of a game wrong and thus creating an obvoliously incorrect sales number for it proves nothing about the accuracy of the system to estimate sales.

 


It kind of does though. 

It proves very easily that this site isn't to be trusted at all. 

The only time this site is ever correct is when publisher, manufacturers and market research companies release actual data, the admin here realises he' wrong, and changes everything to pretend he was right all along 



Raven on 14 February 2015

Wii U what are you doing?! @_@

Everything aside from PS4 is sub-100k. Pretty meh.



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binary solo on 14 February 2015
Jabbamk1 said:
binary solo said:

The fact is no one is under any illusion that game sales numbers are at all accurate. There are too many games and not a big enough sampling plan to yield highly reliable figures. But getting the launch date of a game wrong and thus creating an obvoliously incorrect sales number for it proves nothing about the accuracy of the system to estimate sales.

 


It kind of does though. 

It proves very easily that this site isn't to be trusted at all. 

The only time this site is ever correct is when publisher, manufacturers and market research companies release actual data, the admin here realises he' wrong, and changes everything to pretend he was right all along 

Trusted to do what though? This site has never claimed a high degree of accuracy on short term figures. If you bothered to read the methodology page you'd note that they are completely open about refining the figures when other, more accurate, sales data is published. And they say all figures are estimates right up front. Can you cite how many times VGC has got the launch date wrong and published sales for a game that hasn't released yet, out of thousands of games released over the last 8 years or so?

This error doesn't prove anything particularly important. It proves people can make a mistake, big deal. It doesn't prove anything about the estimation methodology of the site that we don't already know: the estimates for software are notoriously inaccurate; the estimates for hardware can't really be relied on week to week except as a rough guide. If you came here thinking any different then the problem is yours not this site.

VGChartz Methodology

Data-Collection Methodology

All sales estimates on VGChartz are arrived at via a number of proprietrary and ever-developing methods:

  • Passively polling end users to find out what games they are currently purchasing and playing
  • Polling retail partners to find out what games and hardware they are selling
  • Using statistical trend fitting and historical data for similar games
  • Studying resell prices to determine consumer demand and inventory levels
  • Consulting with publishers and manufacturers to find out how many units they are introducing into the channel

All data is regularly checked against manufacturer shipments and data released publicly from other tracking firms to ensure accuracy. VGChartz holds no responsibility for the use of our data – any business decisions made are made at your own risk.



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Tlozjb on 15 February 2015

And Super Mario 3D World and Nintendo Land continue to be undertracked, since around mid-October(while the NSMBU bundle dissapears).

Because in mid-September, the Super Mario 3D World Wii U bundle have become the one and only in the USA, aside of the Wal-mart exclusive MK8 one, so Super Mario 3D World software sales should pretty much be the same as Wii U HW sales in USA, maybe a 1k-2k difference, while Nintendo Land SW sales, should be exactly the same, since both the SM3DW bundle and MK8 bundle include the game, so by every Wii U sold, so is a copy of NIntendo Land.



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