It's going to win easily. Don't see why Xbox will win when sony hasn't even cut their price. The pricecut effect will be HUGE. 

Again, "easily" implies the gap in 2014 from January - May. This is not that gap.

I'm with sales on this: we need to adopt a wait-and-see approach. We still don't know the January NPD gap and if it will carry over into February. We also don't know if Sony will release a slim console or drop the price or if MS will cut the price again. 

And MS are still being aggressive.  I don't know what else you call an entry price $150 lower after about a year after launch, a price cut that also includes 2 free games, and was also preceded by several large 180s on policies.  The point is, if Amazon remains accurate, that means even with that kind of price advantage, the PS4 is seen to have more value by most consumers.  This also means that MS would probably have to drop the price to $299-$329 or bundle in 4-5 AAA games just to stay ahead.

The gap will be as big this year again.

It will be a close call. But the ps4 might just sneak out a win

It's too early to really predict anything, but RIGHT NOW Xbox One is starting to sell more in NA. Personally, I believe that XOne will sell more in NA like usual, and PS will sell better in Europe and Japan like usual.

I picked the second option because it was funny.

Even with the likes of Halo 5 incoming PS4 will have a substantially much bigger library of games in it's catalog compared to XB1 by the time that comes out. With it having huge preference in multiplats and a bigger catalog of exclusives I just can't see the XB1 keeping any long sustaining momentum, even in America.

More than likely the week Halo 5 lands it will be an XB1 week for sales in America, possibly the UK too, but it all depends on what 3rd party or PS4 exclusives are out or releasing around that time.
If the likes of Uncharted releases that week then I don't see it having as huge an effect as if H5 was to launch without opposition in the platform exclusives department.

If Uncharted 4 is getting huge praise for it's multiplayer (which seems very likely) then I think it will have a big effect on the momentum of H5's sales.

Overall though PS4 has a lot more exclusive AAA games coming this year, at least as far as we know and I very much doubt that's likely to change because Sony does have a pretty big number of developers that are known to have been working on AAA PS4 exclusives for a long time, but they just haven't actually unveiled exactly what it is they're working on.

I think for the year, like last, PS4 wins America easily, probably a lot more easily than last year, because there are many games that suite the America market, like Uncharted, The Order, Ratchet & Clank, Until Dawn, even Bloodborne, plenty of variety on the exclusive indies too, with lots of those games landing will have a great effect, back catalog and 3rd party preference in Sony's favor will no doubt see PS4 win America again this year and only times when those few AAA exclusives come to XB1 pretty much only Halo 5 week and perhaps a few weeks after can I see that system winning the US, maybe if Crackdown launches, possibly Quantum Break week.

I fully expect both Sony and MS have more big AAA exclusives incoming for this year, so I don't think MS has enough outright exclusives to the platform to equal Sony's offering. Even Fable Legends is now coming to PC, so it's less of a reason to buy an XB1.

We'll see what happens though.

think about what microsoft has done for the xbox one, and think about what sony has yet to do with the ps4. also, pay attention to amazon and these other online retailers. ps4 continues to destroy xbox one even when the xbox one has a higher price.